National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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725
FXUS64 KAMA 230939
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
339 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today through tonight...

A dry northwesterly upper flow will prevail today before an upper
trough approaches the Panhandles tonight. The upper trough will
usher in a cold front across the forecast area tonight, however
no precipitation is expected. Near normal conditions today before
turning colder tonight.

Schneider


&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...

As seen in the latest water vapor imagery, broad cyclonic flow is
setting up around strong Hudson Bay Low while an upper ridge
amplifies just off the West Coast. This will result in a blocking
pattern of sorts, resulting in an extended period of northwest
flow aloft for the plains. Northwest flow is not good for moisture
return, and when combined with dry Canadian air there is little
hope for much precipitation over the Panhandles in this pattern.
There will be several shortwaves, one about every 2 to 3 days,
which will help push cold fronts through the area. While the
coldest air is offset east and north of the Panhandles,
temperatures will fall below normal behind each cold front, with
brief rebounds to near average temperatures before the next front
moves through. A few snow flurries certainly can`t be ruled out
with any one of these fronts, especially when the upper dynamics
associated with the upper shortwave phase with the near surface
features. However, moisture content will be the main limiting
factor.

The next shortwave can already be seen on latest water vapor
imagery entering the Pacific Northwest. The main forcing with this
wave is expected to traverse the area shortly before the cold
front arrives Thursday AM. Expect some increase in mid and high
level clouds with the shortwave, but very dry air below 700mb
will keep precip at bay. Low stratus is likely Thursday morning
with the passage of the cold front, and a snow flurry can`t be
ruled out behind the front mainly in the northern zones given
modest CAA. Expect high temperature to most likely be reached
prior to peak heating ahead of the front, then falling behind the
front. North winds will also be breezy behind the front due to
surface pressure rises, so wind chills will again be unpleasant.

Expect a brief rebound in temperatures on Thursday then a weak
cold front on Saturday. Sunday then looks to be the warmest day of
the next 7, with highs in the low 60s. Then, long range guidance
suggest what may be one of the stronger cold fronts of this
forecast package, bringing temperatures down for both Monday and
Tuesday. Max temperatures were nudged below SB for both Monday
and Tuesday relying more on the raw models, and wind speeds were
nudged up towards the statistical guidance. A slight chance for
light snow was retained for the northern zones on Monday as there
is some overlap of upper dynamics and strong CAA to support.

Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                48  25  40  22  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  48  25  35  21  50 /   0   0  10   5   0
Boise City OK              47  24  37  21  49 /   0   0  10   0   0
Borger TX                  50  26  40  23  52 /   0   0   5   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              50  25  41  22  53 /   0   0   5   0   0
Canyon TX                  49  24  42  22  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               51  27  43  22  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 47  25  38  19  50 /   0   0   5   0   0
Guymon OK                  47  25  37  22  49 /   0   0  10   0   0
Hereford TX                49  24  42  22  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                49  26  38  21  51 /   0   0  10   5   0
Pampa TX                   48  25  38  20  50 /   0   0   5   0   0
Shamrock TX                50  26  44  23  50 /   0   0   5   0   0
Wellington TX              51  27  47  24  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/7
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
