Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 151118
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
618 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all three TAF sites.
Southerly winds 5 to 15 knots through around 16Z to 21Z today will
diminish after 00Z Monday to around 5 to 15 knots at all three TAF
sites.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tonight...

Upper high over Oklahoma today will shift east further away from the
Panhandles tonight. A southwesterly flow aloft will allow for
monsoonal moisture to shift east from the southwestern states and
Pacific and begin advecting into the Panhandles through tonight.
Increasing cloudiness from west to east expected by tonight across
the forecast area. Surface trough to the lee of the Rockies today
and tonight across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico will
deepen through tonight and allow the southerly surface flow to
increase as the pressure gradient begins to tightens. A south to
southwesterly low level jet 30 to 40 knots will develop overnight
tonight.

Schneider

LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...

High pressure builds over the Arklatex and Midwest region through
midweek as an upper level open wave trough moves out over the
Great Basin Monday into Tuesday. This results in increased
southwest flow aloft over the southern Plains. Mid and upper level
moisture will gradually shift east out of NM/AZ with the increase
in southwest flow. A subtle area of low pressure currently noted
over far southeast AZ is progged to move across the far
northwestern FA Monday and will aid in pressure falls in the Raton
Mesa region. The increased surface pressure gradient will result
in increased southwest winds Monday and Tuesday, especially during
the afternoon when breezy to windy conditions are possible.
Continued the trend of using statistical guidance to increase
winds over what the blend offered through Tuesday. Too much
uncertainty still remains beyond Tuesday to deviate from what the
blend offered, with a possible frontal boundary approaching on
Wednesday and possibly again Saturday.

At this time, even though some decent mid/upper level moisture
advects into the western zones as early as Monday, near surface
moisture will still be lacking with dew points in the low to mid
50s at best. That combined with poor mid level lapse rates will
make it difficult for showers and storms to form in our area
through Monday. That could change on Tuesday as moisture continues
to increase while the main Great Basin trough shifts east. The NAM
and Canadian models are hinting at a little perturbation embedded
in the southwest flow Tuesday which could produce a few showers
and storms where the low level theta-E axis resides. At this time,
have raised PoPs to around 10 percent in the western Texas
Panhandle Tuesday afternoon.

Rain and storm chances increase going toward the end of the week
as medium and long range models continue to show a stronger
secondary trough developing and moving over NV/UT and eventually
lifting up across the northern Plains next weekend. Stronger
southwest flow and subsequent lee troughing will help increase low
level moisture with more low 60s dew points by Thursday and
Friday. Even though the main dynamics with the upper trough is
progged to stay north of the Panhandles, minor shortwaves and
weak surface boundaries should help generate showers and storms
(favoring the western zones), so have retained slight chance to
chance PoPs offered by the blend.

Ward

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/7



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