Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 161114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
614 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018


For the 12Z TAFs:

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout most (if
not all) of this TAF cycle. Main concern will be the possibility
of thunderstorms returning later today. Atmosphere will have to
recover from this mornings convection, but there will be a chance
for thunderstorms today/tonight generally moving in from the
west/northwest. These chances may bring reduced visibilities in
the heavier rainfall rates, and of course lower ceilings which
could border MVFR conditions in both cases. Its too early to say
with much confidence if the terminals will be impacted by
thunderstorms, so subsequent TAFs will need to refine these
details as they become clearer.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 428 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue today across the Panhandles
as a closed upper low tracks east and south this morning.
Scattered convection will move east across the central and eastern
portions of the forecast area this morning with a shortwave trough
forecast to push southeast out of the central and southern Rockies
by late today. Additional convection will track southeast into the
western Panhandles this evening and overnight tonight from the
mountains and higher terrain of northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado. The active northwesterly flow pattern will continue
through the weekend with additional shortwave troughs tracking
southeast across the Panhandles.

A frontal boundary should push into the forecast area Friday and
then exit the Panhandles just to the south by Friday night. Cooler
conditions expected this weekend and then a moderating trend
expected by early and middle next week. Possible brief lull in the
convective activity by Sunday night through Monday night as the
upper flow transitions to more northerly as an upper high builds
over the southwestern states early next week. Convection ramps
back up again by Tuesday and Tuesday night as the upper flow
transitions back to northwesterly once again. Convection may
linger into Wednesday morning before ending. Then a shortwave
trough approaches the Panhandles by late Wednesday afternoon or
Wednesday evening allowing for additional convection to propagate
southeast into the forecast area off the higher terrain.
Convection will spread east and south across the Panhandles
Wednesday night into Thursday. Surface boundary tracks out of
eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado by Wednesday night and
early Thursday resulting in cooler conditions for late next week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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