Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 302334 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
534 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 239 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Flurry activity possible overnight, and not quite as cold tonight.
Small, 20 percent, chance for the far south to see more light snow
Tuesday morning with some spots possible to see a mix with sleet.

Looking at visible satellite, there is an extensive low level
cloud shield over the Southern Plains. This is trapping the cold
air and preventing much daytime heating from helping warm up the
area. Most spots in the Panhandles have risen to the teens this
afternoon, but a few spots remain colder in the single digits. The
wind has been light with little pressure gradient in place, so
that has helped raise the apparent temps today. As high surface
pressure continues to linger over the area, winds will remain
light overnight and prevent significant wind chills. This will
mean we won`t need a Wind Chill Advisory tonight since areas will
remain above negative 5 degrees.

Visible and water vapor satellite show the train of moisture from
the Pacific riding up through west Texas into the South Plains
across into OK. The mid-level low is just off the coast of
southern California and looks to cross onto the Baja Peninsula
Tuesday. This system will continue to send shortwaves out ahead of
it, and bring precip chances with each wave. In the cold air near
the surface, there is enough moisture in that low level for the
Panhandles to squeeze out very dry snow flurries. Forecast
soundings showed this morning to have better low level moisture in
that layer, which was cold enough to be in the dendritic growth
zone. Thus snow flurries have been possible across the Panhandles
today. We have warmed up enough this afternoon to dry out the
layer and remove most areas from the dendritic zone, thus
shutting off most flurries. A few areas near industrial zones may
have enough moisture to remain seeing some light, dry snow. This
snow is generally going to remain under 1 inch, but if allowed to
sit on roadways instead of being blown around, since winds have
become so light, it may make some slick spots.

Some forecast soundings show the temps dropping back tonight and
moistening up enough for more flurries. Other models keep us just
dry enough at the surface to prevent flurry activity. For now have
gone ahead and added in the potential for flurries to the forecast
overnight. These shouldn`t add up to much for snowfall beyond a
trace unless enhanced by industrial means. By morning, models
suggest the mid-level moisture plume from the Pacific may encroach
on the far southern TX Panhandle to bring a bit more potential for
light snow. This potential remains at only 20 percent though. Most
soundings indicate the moisture should remain as snow, but based
on the NBM, some models must indicate the potential for sleet from
the excess moisture reaching the column to fill into the warm
nose. Thus have a few spots in the far south that could see sleet
mixed in. This extra moisture won`t last long though as the area
dries out by the afternoon and gets a shot to warm into the upper
20s. Tuesday night looks to remain dry as clouds clear out in the
northwest two-thirds of the area.

Beat

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Models are in pretty good agreement on the location of the H5
closed low center a couple hundred miles south of Arizona/Mexico
border by Wed. The low is within a positively tilted larger scale
trough and the next lift assoc w/ this system as seen in H7-H3
Q-Vector convergence is not expected to impact the area until Wed
aftn. This suggests the break in precip chances Tue night will
continue through Wed morning. Temperatures are expected to rise
above freezing finally as SFC high pressure moves SE to E of the
area allowing a return to S-SW low level flow. Warmest areas will
be the NW where clouds should erode the most. Combination of large
scale lifts and better moisture profiles favor the far SE corner
Wed for cloud cover and low POPs Wed aftn. P-type should be rain
during the day (if we see any precip at all) based on forecasts
highs, although there is some uncertainty in how quickly the cold
air will retreat and this is always a concern with these type
Arctic events.

Uncertainty increases regarding the evolution of the low as it
tracks east from NRN Mexico. The GFS has trended to opening it up
much faster then the other operational models. While the GFS has
been the clear winner the past couple of systems in general, it
has had a off run or two which were too agressive with opening
the last few lows. The consensus storm track suggests the southern
half to third of the Texas Panhandle will be near the NRN edge of
the precipitation shield and the greatest impacts will likely be
well SE of the area. While it is possible the system track so far
south that the northern edge of precip remains completely south of
the area, there are enough wetter ensemble members that the NBM
continues to maintain a 20-50 POP favoring the SE corner Wed night
into early Thu. Precipitation type that would occur is
tremendously uncertain and is highly dependent on storm track and
how much cold air remains near the SFC. While NBM favors freezing
rain from late wed evening through Thu morning, you can find
forecast soundings that support freezing rain, sleet, snow and
even rain Wed night in warmest solutions. Experience tells us the
cold air might remain anchored a bit better than models show and
warmest solutions that keep temps above freezing might not be
best. WRT impacts, even the worse case scenario in the Panhandles
suggests minor impacts from whichever precip type occurs and the
best case is the edge of the precipitation doesn`t reach the area
and remains south (which is still very possible).

A warming trend will continue Fri into Sat and looks like those
will be very nice days with 50s in 60s as the upper system moves
away. There is not good agreement on Sunday regarding the next
front. While NBM shows 50s and 60s again, confidence is not high
and there is quite a bit of standard deviation at play. Several
models are hinting at yet another storm around the middle of next
week (beyond the current 7 day forecast), so stay tuned for
updates on that moving forward.

Gittinger

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail at GUY and AMA through
this forecast. IFR conditions are expected to prevail at DHT
through Tuesday morning before improving to MVFR for the
afternoon. Some light snow will be possible at AMA around sunrise.
Winds are expected to remain around 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                11  27  16  44 /  10  10   0  10
Beaver OK                   6  29  12  44 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK               5  27  12  45 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  12  28  16  47 /  10  10   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              12  28  16  48 /  10  10   0  10
Canyon TX                  13  27  16  45 /  10  10   0  20
Clarendon TX               15  27  18  37 /  20  20   0  30
Dalhart TX                  7  27  12  46 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                   6  28  10  44 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                13  29  17  46 /  10  10   0  20
Lipscomb TX                 8  28  12  42 /  10  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   10  26  16  43 /  10  10   0  10
Shamrock TX                15  26  16  37 /  10  20   0  20
Wellington TX              16  27  18  36 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...15


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