Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 170438 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1038 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

A cold front will move through the TAF sites between 10Z and 14Z
with north winds around 25 knots with higher gusts. Low clouds in
the MVFR range will fill in behind the front in the morning at DHT
and GUY, but they may hold off until almost noon at AMA. Some
light freezing drizzle or snow will be possible after sunset at
all sites.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 509 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018/

A cold front should pass through the TAF sites between 10Z and
14Z Saturday. Low clouds in the MVFR range will fill in behind the
front by afternoon. North winds will pick up into the 20 to 26
knot range with higher gusts behind the front. It looks like the
best chance of any freezing drizzle or flurries will be just
beyond this forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1256 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018/

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Evening... The highlight for
this period will be the passing of a surface cold front in the
early a.m. hours. Winds will increase to 15-20 knots sustained
gusting 30 knots at times behind the front. Increasing cloud cover
will occur with the passage as well. In the late morning hours
clouds will be lowered, and some models suggest a light mist and
possibly fog by the afternoon. The NAM is now showing a saturated
surface for Amarillo by sunrise, and the GFS is not showing a low
saturated layer until closer to noon.


LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday night...
With the exception of freezing drizzle Saturday evening, the
extended looks pretty quiet. We still have a fairly saturated
layer about 5kft thick near the surface. Temperatures are sub-
freezing, but the moist layer is still in the -5 to -7 C range,
and thus we have concerns that flurries may not be able to
materialize since we`re not quite in the dendrite growth zone. So
we`ve kept the slight chance snow for the far northwest portion of
the OK Panhandle, but the flurries have now been shifted to
patchy freezing drizzle. We will still keep the slight chance
flurries, but want to note that the freezing drizzle looks more
probable. This will be for the overnight period on Saturday night
into Sunday morning. While this is forecast across the
Panhandles, there`s still a 1000ft dry layer above the surface
with about a 5C dewpoint depression at the surface level. This
could make it challenging for the drizzle to persist or even
materialize at all.

As cold air will be in place over the Panhandles, it will make for a
chilly Sunday, but winds will be a lot lighter, and with improving
cloud cover in the afternoon, it might not feel too bad outside, but
highs will still be in the low 40s. Won`t take long for temperatures
to recover on Monday into the mid 50s as the trof exits east and
northwest flow on the lee side of the upper high over the western
CONUS returns.  High pressure will shift east and become slightly
suppressed bringing a more zonal flow across the Panhandles.  Temps
will still climb through the week as warmer air under the ridge will
be in place.  By Thursday most of the Panhandles should be in the
lower 60s.  The forecast remains dry through the extended under the
high pressure.  Wednesday is the only day right now that might need
pops added as we get closer to the short term.  Models have had a
weak shortwave trof the past couple days swing just south of the
Panhandles in Lubbock area.  Latest trend has been to pull it
slightly north clipping the southern TX Panhandle with rain, but for
now will keep it dry and isolated further into Lubbock`s area, until
better run to run continuity comes into play.


VFR conditions will begin the 18Z TAF period with mostly clear
skies, then increasing cloud cover will end the period with MVFR
conditions, possibly IFR/LIFR conditions after 15Z. Winds will
begin in the south 10-15 kts, then calm down somewhat as they
start to shift due to a passing cold front. The cold front will be
through KGUY and KDHT some time between 08 and 10Z with winds out
of the north by this time. All three terminals will be affected
by strong 20 kt winds gusting 30 kts at times by 15Z and will see
a lowering of ceilings down to MVFR at this time, maybe lower.
Confidence is not great at the moment but current guidance suggest
ceilings could be at 1k ft or less. Updates to these conditions
may be needed in future issuances. Frizzing drizzle and mist will
also be a possibility with these low CIGs.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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