Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 151944
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
244 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Main forecast concerns are on severe thunderstorm potential late
this afternoon through this evening.

Severe thunderstorms are possible today mainly between 3 PM and 10
PM. The main threats from the storms will be damaging winds, large
hail, and possibly a brief isolated tornado near the warm front.
Latest Convective Allowing Models (CAMS) initiate the bulk of the
thunderstorms through 4 PM, with the most concentrated area of
storms west of Interstate 35. Additional cells then develop near
the warm front over southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. By
this time, RAP forecast sounding show surface based CAPE values
ranging from 1100 to 1500 J/kg. Shear is rather weak near the
start of the event with 0-3 km bulk shear values of 10 to 15 kts,
with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts. The low level shear
then increases as the shortwave moves into the region and we may
see 0-3 km line normal bulk shear increase to around 30 kts. If
this occurs we could see some bowing segments and cannot rule out
a very brief QLCS tornado near the warm front. Showers and perhaps
a few thunderstorms will then linger into the overnight hours as
a shortwave continues to edge across the area. The bulk of this
activity look to be north of Interstate 90 during the overnight
hours. A few showers may linger over the area on Sunday before
ending as a very weak ridge moves over region.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Forecast highlights for next week are, more sumer-like temperatures,
and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Flow aloft turns zonal Monday night through Thursday with several
features to watch bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to
the area. The timeframes with the highest confidence for showers and
storms at this times are Tuesday night through Wednesday. Flow aloft
then looks to turn more southwest going into next weekend with
temperatures edging up and the potential for an active weather
pattern, especially if the ECMWF solution holds. Will lean heavily
toward a model consensus blend from midweek going into next weekend.
Plan on high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s through much of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Impacts on KRST/KLSE through the next 24hrs will be thunderstorms
and low clouds. Watching radar closely early this afternoon for
convection. Thunderstorms expected to blossom by 3 pm and move
east through the area as an area of low pressure moves from the
Northern Plains into the region. Organized convection to time into
KRST/KLSE is lacking as this convection is expected to be more
scattered in nature. Expect thunderstorm activity in the vicinity
of KRST in the 20-02Z and KLSE in the 23-05z timeframe. Plan on
VFR sky conditions this afternoon into this evening to
deteriorate after 06z into MVFR/IFR range and then remain there
through the end of the TAF period.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...DAS


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