Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 310013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
613 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 602 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Isolated to scattered snow showers were moving into western North
Dakota this evening, with light snow reported at Watford City and
Beach so far. Visibilities reported have been generally above 5
miles, though a brief 1 1/2 mile visibility observation was
reported at Beach. With water vapor imagery showing the mid-level
shortwave nearly fully over western North Dakota with a southward
trajectory, the coverage of these snow showers should diminish
through the evening, which is captured well by the going
forecast. Current Wind Chill Advisory looks in good shape at this
time as well, no changes needed with this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Very cold temperatures with hazardous wind chills remain a concern
for the short term period. Light snow showers are possible in the
southwest this afternoon, and across the north on Tuesday.

A mid level shortwave is approaching southwest North Dakota this
afternoon. It is possible that another round of convective snow
showers could be generated over southwest North Dakota later this
afternoon, somewhat similar to yesterday. However, there are some
key differences within the boundary layer that point toward a lower
probability of impacts. First, the surface dewpoint depression is
greater than yesterday. Second, BUFKIT sounding analysis suggests a
greater degree of subsidence below the mid level lift. The top of
the boundary layer actually appears more saturated (with respect to
ice) than yesterday, so still think at least some isolated snow
showers or scattered flurries are likely. So far, upstream
observations in eastern Montana confirm that light snow is possible,
but with much lower impacts and less coverage. Mid afternoon
satellite observations also suggest a more stable atmosphere.
Regardless of how the snow evolves, gusty winds are possible in
southwest North Dakota this afternoon. The chance of light snow
could shift into south central North Dakota this evening.

Another shortwave is forecast to move from northern Alberta into
southern Saskatchewan and eventually northern North Dakota on
Tuesday. An elevated warm front attendant to the shortwave should
cross the state early Tuesday morning. It appears that the
atmosphere will be too dry to support any precipitation along the
warm front, but several CAMs and global ensembles have been signaling
that the main push of DCVA coupled with a deepening surface low
should generate an area of light snow moving from northwest to
eastern North Dakota over the course of the day. Snow accumulations
are likely to remain under one inch for most areas.

The Arctic air mass will be slow to erode over the short term
period. The early Tuesday warm front will help some, with highs on
Tuesday reaching the 20s in southwest North Dakota, but remaining
closer to zero near the Turtle Mountains. Prior to this, another
frigid night is expected with widespread lows in the teens below
likely across northern, central, and eastern North Dakota. Wind
chills in the 25 to 40 below range are still being observed north
and east of the Missouri River this afternoon, and should become
more widespread once again tonight. A Wind Chill Advisory remains in
effect for these areas, as well as Mercer, Oliver, and Morton
Counties, through Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Another Arctic cold front on Thursday should be followed by a warm
up through the upcoming weekend.

Pieces of shortwave energy within northwest flow aloft may pass over
the Northern Plains on Wednesday. Some very light snow cannot be
ruled out, but it is more likely that most areas will remain dry. A
continuation of warm air advection will bring Wednesday high
temperatures into the teens north and east of the river and 20s to
the south and west, pushing near the freezing mark in the southwest
corner of the state.

Confidence continues to increase that another Arctic cold front will
plunge down from Canada Wednesday night into Thursday. Frontal
passage timing and pressure rise magnitude uncertainty still exist.
This precludes any deviation from the NBM wind forecast at this
time, though pattern recognition suggests peak forecast winds may be
too low. Pattern recognition also suggests a chance of light snow
along the front, but global ensembles are more in favor of non-
measurable precipitation (QPF less than 0.01"), so will leave the
dry NBM forecast in tact for now. Small NBM temperature spread
indicates high confidence in highs in the single digits above and
below zero on Thursday, with teens in the far southwest. Wind chills
may fall near 30 below north and east of the river Thursday morning
through Friday morning.

The Thursday Arctic blast looks to be much shorter-lived as strong
warm air advection preceding an upper ridge ushers in a more
progressive and milder pattern. Deterministic models show a series
of shortwave troughs and ridges into early next week, but at this
time there is not a distinct enough signal of any feature in
ensemble guidance to mention a chance of precipitation. 850 mb
temperature anomalies and NBM surface temperature guidance show
confidence in much warmer temperatures this weekend into early next
week, with lower certainty during the transition period to warmer
air on Friday. The typical northeast to southwest contrast in
temperatures still appears likely though, with highs generally
favored to range from around 20 northeast to near 40 southwest
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 602 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Isolated snow showers may impact KDIK this evening, potentially
briefly producing IFR visibility. This was kept out of the TAF with
the isolated and brief nature of this potential, but will need
monitoring this evening. Coverage of snow showers should diminish
by 06Z. A band of light snow is expected late Tuesday morning in
the northwest, possibly impacting KMOT in the afternoon and then
KJMS after 00Z as it shifts southeast through the day.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NDZ001>005-009>013-019>023-025-034>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...Hollan
LONG TERM...Hollan
AVIATION...AE


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