Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 230629
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
129 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0253 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/

Central Alabama has managed to miss the diurnal convection so far
today, although the rain is not that far away. Band of
thunderstorms has formed to our north, in connection with the
cold front advancing toward our area. The front is still expected
to help push these storms into central Alabama later tonight and
into Tuesday. Will maintain the high POPs (likely to categorical),
spreading from northwest to southeast, over the course of the next
24 hours. 12z model runs were a bit more definitive with the
influx of dry air into the northern counties after 18z Tuesday,
and the POPs will be adjusted accordingly.

/61/

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0358 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/

Tuesday night through Sunday.

Much drier air will be advected in behind the front for Wednesday
with small rain chances confined to our far southeastern
counties. A significant reduction in humidity will accompany the
frontal passage as dewpoints fall into the 50s and 60s. Morning
lows will also drop substantially, with some upper 50s possible in
the northern counties on Thursday morning. Beyond Thursday,
models continue to disagree regarding boundary layer moisture
recovery, with the ECMWF remaining much drier than the GFS. Our
updated forecast reflects a hedge between the two models and 20 to
40 percent rain chances gradually moving northward across the
forecast area from Friday through Sunday.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A cold front is across northern MS this hour and will slowly slide
in the northwestern portions of the state by sunrise. Chances are
decreasing for rainfall in the north as we draw closer. Thinking
that if the area does not get any rain by 15Z across the north
then the chances are minimal for the rest of the day. MGM and TOI
should see a good chance at some TSRA after 15Z. Meanwhile low
clouds will develop ahead of the front across the north, with MVFR
and IFR possible. Confidence has increased that IFR will occur as
MVFR cigs were already visible at spots. Once the front passes
you will notice a very strong wind from the north with gusts up to
25 kts at times. Skies eventually clear out across the north, but
remain int he south until after this cycle.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will approach the region from the north this evening.
Numerous showers and storms will overspread the area tonight
through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     82  61  84  62  86 /  80  10   0   0   0
Anniston    82  64  84  63  87 /  80  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  83  64  85  64  88 /  80  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  84  65  86  64  89 /  80  10   0   0   0
Calera      82  65  85  64  87 /  80  10   0   0   0
Auburn      82  66  84  65  86 /  90  40  10   0   0
Montgomery  84  68  86  66  89 /  90  30   0   0  10
Troy        84  68  85  66  87 /  90  40  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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