Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 250626
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
126 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Through Thursday Night.

A warm afternoon across Central Alabama with temperatures in the
lower to middle 80s. South winds 10-15 mph are providing a little
relief from the heat. A mild and rain free night on tap with south
breezes 5-10 mph. Low level gulf moisture will increase after
midnight and expect low clouds to develop west of I-65. Showers
will arrive in far west Alabama by 9 am Thursday as a strong
short wave trof approaches the Mississippi River. Showers and
thunderstorms will spread over a majority of Central Alabama
during the day Thursday, and raised rain chances all areas. The
models are showing a more pronounced surface low tracking northeast
across eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee. This will help
pull more unstable air farther northward. Both the GFS and ECMWF
models are showing surface based CAPE values between 750 and 1200
J/Kg Thursday afternoon across the southwest portions of central
Alabama, with 0-6-km bulk shear 55-60 knots. This will create an
atmosphere that is supportive of a few severe storms. Introduced a
marginal risk for severe storms Thursday afternoon and early
evening for areas along and south of a Geiger, to Montgomery, to
Eufaula line. Damaging straight line winds will be the main threat.
Models indicate plenty of wrap around moisture with continued weak
forcing behind upper trof axis, so high rain chances will continue
into Thursday night.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Tuesday.

High pressure and subsidence will lead to dry conditions for
Friday through Saturday. A front may try to approach from the
north on Sunday, but our forecast favors the dry ECMWF solution at
this time. Height rises on Monday and Tuesday strongly suggest a
warming trend and continued dry conditions. High temperatures
could approach the 90F mark during this period in the typically
warmer locations.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

We are currently VFR at all TAF sites with mid and high clouds
around. However, we are expecting some lower MVFR cigs possible
later today as a storm system moves into Central Alabama during
mainly the afternoon and evening hours from west to east. This
will be ahead of a front. Some lingering rain will be possible as
well behind the main line of storms in association with the upper
trough. Gusty winds will be possible ahead of an behind the line
as well with tight surface pressure gradients.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free conditions will continue through tonight with south
winds 5-8 mph. Moisture will increase rapidly after midnight as
Gulf moisture transports northward ahead of an approaching storm
system. Showers and thunderstorms will spread from west to east on
Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall at times. Rainfall amounts
will range from three-quarters of an inch to one inch, with
locally higher amounts. The rain will continue into Thursday
night. Cooler and drier conditions Friday and Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     76  60  74  49  79 /  70  70  20   0   0
Anniston    78  60  75  50  80 /  70  70  20   0   0
Birmingham  76  61  75  52  80 /  80  70  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  76  60  78  51  81 /  80  70  10   0   0
Calera      75  60  76  52  80 /  80  70  10   0   0
Auburn      77  61  76  53  79 /  50  70  30   0   0
Montgomery  79  63  79  54  82 /  70  70  20   0   0
Troy        78  62  78  53  81 /  50  70  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$

58/87/08


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