Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 222114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
314 PM MDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...An upper level ridge will
approach the region from the west in the short term, with clearing
skies tonight. Cool northerly flow will continue through Thursday
with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. Warmer air will
move into the region on Friday as the ridge moves into Northern
CA. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees above normal on Friday.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday...Models are all in
good agreement indicating that an upper ridge will remain off the
coast near 130-140W. This keeps a cool northwest flow over the
forecast region through the weekend. A weak upper system rides
over the ridge Saturday and brushes parts of the Boise and West
Central Mountains in Idaho bringing a slight risk of snow showers.
The remainder of the region remains dry but breezy as the upper
trough slides east of the region. Otherwise, a strong typhoon
south of Japan today slides into the central Pacific Ocean by the
end of the weekend. This develops a strong upper low out near the
dateline, which in turn amplifies the upper ridge shifting the
upper flow from northwest to more northerly. As a result, below
normal temperatures (10-15 degrees) drop into the region the first
part of next week. Typically, models dont behave nicely when
typhoons recurve into the westerlies. Surprisingly, at this time,
models are all in a good agreement with this generally dry


.AVIATION...Lingering showers across the Idaho mountains will
bring periods of MVFR/IFR conditions and mountain obscurations.
Otherwise improving conditions by sunset. VFR conditions expected
elsewhere. Surface winds: Northwest to North 10 to 20 kts with
gusts to 25 kts east of KMUO. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: NW





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