Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 302158
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
258 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

Banded snowfall has been ongoing in the mountains west of the
Eisenhower Tunnel this afternoon, but slower to develop across the
foothills/urban corridor. Overall confidence is low to medium for
the 4 inch potential in the Denver area, but 1-2 inch totals not
out of the question. No changes to the ongoing highlights at this
time but the verification of the advisory will be heavily dependent
on the formation of the bands this evening. The main trough over
the Desert Southwest/southern CA will continue to shift southward
overnight. The drier air will spread north to south across
northern CO overnight. Clearing skies, snow cover and the Arctic
airmass will make for another night of very cold temperatures.
We did include zones 50 and 51 in the wind chill advisory for the
northeast plains tonight. Winds speed in the 10-15 mph range will
still be enough to drop the wind chill to around -25F in some
areas. On Tuesday, dry with temperatures warming back up with the
Arctic airmass shifts eastward. Temperatures will climb back into
the 20s over most of the plains, with low-mid 30s possible across
the western/southern Denver suburbs. The flow aloft will weaken
and become more northwesterly over the region.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

Tuesday night and Wednesday, the trough currently off the coast
of California should be onshore over northern Mexico and the
Desert Southwest and advancing slowly. That trough should stay
south of northeast Colorado and we`ll be mostly dry and clear,
except for some lingering cloudiness over the high country.
Temperatures will be warmer but maybe a bit difficult to precisely
predict due to persistent snow cover, especially in the South
Platte River Valley due to strong inversion and light winds.
Expect high temperatures up to the 30s across most of the plains
and 20s across the high country. There should also patchy blowing
snow across the mountains and higher foothills Wednesday into
Thursday.

In the latter half of the week, there should be ridging aloft
with some mid and high level moisture in the northwesterly flow
but mostly dry in the lower levels. The warming trend should
continue with peak temperatures likely Friday as the ridge axis
moves overhead and downslope flow increases, with about near
normal high temperatures in the 20s and 30s across the mountains,
in the mid 40s to lower 50s around the lower Front Range foothills
and adjacent plains (including the greater Denver area) where
downslope warming is greatest, and a bit cooler in the South
Platte River Valley and further east where warming will be more
moderated by more persistent snow cover.

Next weekend, models have a shortwave passing mostly to our north
early in the weekend then brief ridging ahead of the next upper
level trough moving on shore to our west-northwest by the end of
the weekend. There looks to be a chance of light snowfall in the
mountains and a bit of cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

Bands of light snow are starting to spread into the terminals this
afternoon. Ceilings will generally range from 1-3 kft through
early this evening, with visibilities ranging 2-4 miles in light
snow, but could drop to less than a mile in a stronger snow band.
clouds will be decreasing by late this evening with just scattered
cloud coverage late tonight into Tuesday morning. Otherwise,
the wind will be light and variable at the terminals until late
this evening, then transition to drainage.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ031-
033.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ034-
036.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for
COZ039>041.

Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Tuesday
for COZ040>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...EJD
AVIATION...Cooper


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