Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 160501
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
101 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight with showers and then
patches of fog forming. The frontal boundary will stall across
Pennsylvania early next week, keeping a chance of showers in the
forecast for the Southern Tier. Weak high pressure over southern
Ontario will keep areas closer to the Canadian border mainly dry
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
This late evening a cold front is dropping across the North Country,
and is now starting to drop across Lake Ontario. Showers along this
front, in addition to a west to east line of showers south of the
lake within a convergent zone will eventually combine into a single
line and drop southward tonight.

While the Southern Tier is now relatively precipitation free at the
moment, rain will fill back in...from both the approaching cold
front and also a convective wave that is over Ohio this late
evening. There are some hints in the track of this wave that may
bring a period of moderate rain to the Southern Tier late tonight.

A wealth of lower moisture over a saturated ground combined with a
light wind will yield patches of fog through the night. A northeast
wind over Lake Ontario later tonight could yield more widespread fog
along and north of the thruway.

A convective wave will exit into eastern New York and southern New
England Sunday morning, with showers tapering off from northwest to
southeast. While showers will start Sunday across WNY, the southward
push of the cold front will quickly dry our region out through the
morning hours.

There still will be lots of low level moisture, especially
with a northeast flow upsloping behind the departing wave of low
pressure. Clouds will linger well into the afternoon hours, and this
will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs averaging in the
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will remain to the south of western NY Sunday night
leading to dry conditions across the forecast area. Clouds will
linger across western NY as moisture lingers behind the front. A
shortwave trough and area of low pressure will move across the Ohio
Valley and along the cold front Monday and showers and thunderstorms
will likely spread across Ohio and Pennsylvania. Some showers and
thunderstorms may move into the western Southern Tier Monday
afternoon. The rest of the forecast area will be under the influence
of high pressure. Clouds will likely increase across the region
through the day as showers move near the NY/PA border.

The region remains north of the cold front Monday night into Tuesday
with a chance of showers across the western Southern Tier. It won`t
be until Tuesday night when developing low pressure across the Ohio
Valley tracks east-northeast towards Pennsylvania that rain chances
increase across western NY.

Locations adjacent to Lake Ontario especially east of Lake Ontario
will see mostly dry conditions during this period. Temperatures will
fall into the mid 50`s at night and reach the mid 70`s during the
day Sunday night through Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
It doesn`t take long for soaking rainfall to return to the area
yet again in the extended forecast. While a still-suppressed
storm track starts the extended forecast period with the best
chances of rainfall to our south, this ends rather abruptly by
Thursday. Model solutions are not in absolute unison on the
timing of a moisture-laden system, however the details with
regard to PWATs approaching 2 inches, strong upper level
forcing, good deformation, low level convergence, and even some
elevated instability all seem present on the various solutions.
With this in mind, PoPs were adjusted to likely and focused on
the Thursday to Thursday night time frame when the preponderance
of guidance suggests the most likely time for the passage of the
system exists. That said, with the aforementioned concurrence in
forcing mechanisms, heavy rain wording was added to the
forecast.

Beyond Thursday night, a bit of a dry push comes into the area,
however even with lowering 850 hPa temperaturewise, an increase
in insolation should keep temperatures from falling off really
much at all into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers will continue through the overnight before tapering off in
most locations Sunday morning. The one exception will be across the
western Southern Tier, where showers will continue through Sunday.
Widespread IFR CIGS will continue through midday Sunday as light
northerly upslope flow develops behind the cold front. CIGS will
improve to MVFR later Sunday afternoon, and eventually VFR Sunday
night as low level moisture slowly diminishes in the wake of the
cold frontal passage. Some patchy fog will continue through Sunday
morning, mainly across the higher terrain where stratus intersects
the hilltops and also along the south shore of Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...VFR to MVFR in scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly across the Southern Tier.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR. Showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have diminished, and wave heights flattened to a point where
small craft advisories have been dropped for all water bodies this
evening.

Winds will then remain fairly light Sunday through early next week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/Thomas
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...Fries
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Thomas



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