Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 270723
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1223 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023

.DISCUSSION...

Through Saturday night...

No changes planned to current winter storm highlites.

A disturbance that dropped into the Dakotas Thursday afternoon
has pushed an area of cooler air into the eastern half of the
forecast area overnight and set up an area of convergence over
central zones. Combined with jet energy over the top there will be
periods of precipitation through the morning hours over central
areas that will be a mix of rain and snow, with little snow
accumulation expected through noon. Further west, jet energy along
with an influx of Pacific moisture will bring periods of heavy
snow above 7000 feet, heaviest on west to northwest facing slopes
through mid day Friday. Expect lower elevation temperatures to be
in the mid to upper 30s for western and central areas this morning
into the early afternoon, with highs reaching the lower 30s over
SE Montana. This will help to keep roads mainly wet to
occasionally slushy over the higher hills and foothills for most
of the day.

Arctic air will arrive in the area from mid afternoon into the
early evening hours with temperatures quickly falling behind the
cold front into the 20s. Any wet roadways will likely flash freeze
as the front moves through, particularly once the sun sets.
Drivers should be prepared for roads turning icy and snow
intensifying around rush hour this afternoon.

Snow will be heaviest from the frontal passage into mid day
Saturday, with the upslope areas and northern slopes taking the
brunt of the snowfall. Mountain locations are looking at 1 to 2+
feet of snowfall, foothills 12 to 18 inches on north facing
slopes, and areas along the I-90 corridor from Livingston to
Billings to Sheridan are looking at 5 to 10 inches. Areas east of
a Miles City to Alzada will see the least amount of snowfall in
the 1 to 3 inch range. This snow will be wet heavy snow to begin
with with good water content, so be prepared when shoveling and
take it easy out there.

Temperatures Friday night will drop into the low teens most
locations with single digits SE Montana. Saturdays highs won`t
move much more than a few degrees as northerly winds continue to
advect in Arctic air. Lows Saturday night should fall well below
zero as a 1045mb Arctic high pressure cell noses over the area.
Chambers

Sunday through Thursday...

Snow will taper off from north to south on Sunday as flow through
the atmosphere turns to the north and dries out. Highs Sunday
will reach the -5 to +5 degree range. Clearing skies, fresh snow
cover and a 1045mb high over the area will allow strong
radiational cooling Sunday night into Monday morning. Expect
temperatures in the teens to possibly 20s below zero for kids at
the bus stop Monday morning. Winds of 5 to 10 mph will push wind
chill values into the -30 to -40 degree range to start the day.

Generally dry conditions will prevail for Monday through
Thursday, with high temperatures warming from the teens into the
30s through the period. There may be a few disturbances in
northwest flow that combine with local warm advection to generate
some mountain and foothills snow showers from time to time, but
any accumulations look very minor.

With the warm advection can expect periods of gusty winds in the
western foothills starting possibly as early as Monday
night/Tuesday morning, and persisting into next weekend. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will generally weaken this morning into this afternoon ahead
of a cold front late in the day, though there may be a few gusts
in the 25 to 35 kt range associated with shower activity. Winds
will turn from westerly to northerly and then northeasterly as the
cold front moves through late afternoon into this evening.

Scattered showers will be present west of a Forsyth to Broadus
line this morning into early afternoon, with numerous snow
showers in the higher foothills and mountain locations. Mountain
snowfall will be heavy at times producing obscuration down to pass
elevations. As the strong cold front arrives this afternoon,
expect precipitation to become persistent and increase in
intensity, producing widespread IFR or lower conditions through
Saturday. Precipitation type will be a mix of rain/snow below 5000
feet today, with snow above. As the front moves through snow
levels will drop quickly to the surface in all areas by 02z.
Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037 012/014 905/006 913/011 002/024 009/028 018/036
    9/O +9/S    32/S    00/B    00/B    10/B    00/B
LVM 038 013/013 911/003 913/014 000/025 011/032 018/039
    +/S +8/S    21/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    00/B
HDN 036 010/015 905/004 917/011 906/023 003/026 009/036
    +/O +8/S    22/S    00/B    00/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 034 004/009 904/006 909/011 001/023 009/025 013/036
    6/S 52/S    00/E    00/B    00/B    00/E    00/B
4BQ 035 008/011 904/006 913/010 902/023 007/026 013/036
    8/S 95/S    11/E    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
BHK 030 903/004 910/002 915/006 904/019 002/023 010/032
    3/S 31/E    00/E    00/B    00/B    00/E    00/B
SHR 035 009/014 907/003 916/011 906/025 004/028 012/040
    8/S ++/S    54/S    10/B    00/B    00/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM
      MST Saturday FOR ZONES 29>31-36-42-58-63-138-169-173-228.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from noon today to 6 PM MST
      Saturday FOR ZONES 32-37.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 PM MST Saturday FOR
      ZONES 34-40-57-64-65-67-68-141-170>172-235.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect from noon today to 6 PM MST
      Saturday FOR ZONES 56-66-139.
WY...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM
      MST Saturday FOR ZONE 199.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 PM MST Saturday FOR
      ZONE 198.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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