Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 181529
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
929 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.UPDATE...

Some lingering showers will continue through this morning across
Custer and Fallon Counties. These are expected to be out of the
state by afternoon. Otherwise, expect a sunny to mostly sunny day
today with breezy west winds along with lower humidities. No
updates expected this morning from the previous forecast. Hooley

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Fri...

A drier air mass than we have seen in awhile will spread over our
region over the next two days, but we are still not w/o shower and
thunderstorm potential. There will not be any severe weather in
the short term period, and temps will be very comfortable for mid
July.

Band of frontogenesis within a region of mid level moisture and
steep mid level lapse rates continues to produce some mainly light
showers from near Hysham to Baker at 245 am. This activity will
dissipate over the next few hours. Satellite imagery shows zonal
flow from the PacNW thru the northern Rockies, with a low along
the BC coast...all in a region of below normal heights.

The westerly flow aloft will bring in drier air and suppress the
deeper plains moisture over the next couple of days. W-NW winds
will be well-mixed and gusty especially across western areas
today. A weak shortwave combined with modest/elevated instability
will produce a few showers from west to east this evening thru
tonight. Capes of 100 j/kg or less in the 650-500mb layer suggest
just showers, and will keep out any mention of thunder. Precip
will be light. Friday will be drier yet with less wind as surface
high builds west of the mountains. Upper trof in western Canada
will slide across northern MT Friday night. There will be a little
theta-e return in our southeast, with increasing elevated
instability, so should be some showers/thunderstorms along and
east of a Miles City to Broadus line. Air mass will remain driest
in our west.

Cool surface high will build in from the west late Friday night,
with pwats expected to fall below a half inch in south central MT.
With clearing and light winds it will be a seasonably chilly night
in our west. In fact, Livingston`s record low of 41 degrees on the
20th should be challenged.

JKL

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

As zonal flow persists through Saturday and into Sunday, an
inverted shortwave looks to pass over northeast Montana. This
brings a chance for showers and storms Saturday into Sunday
morning, but there is much agreement on a lack of instability
(CAPE) present across much of southeast Montana that will largely
inhibit storm convection.

Heights will rise over much of the western U.S. as the monsoonal
flow enters the area. This dramatic increase in heights will bring
about warmer temperatures in the low 90s and dry conditions across
the area, with heights peaking on Tuesday and staying high through
the mid week. Small chances of showers exist for far SE Montana
through next week, but otherwise conditions will be very dry in
comparison to the past months conditions.

Vertz

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail today through Friday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and isolated showers are
possible tonight. A few mountain obscurations are possible this
afternoon as well. W surface winds will gust to 30 kt this
afternoon. Arthur

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 056/080 055/081 057/085 059/089 062/093 065/093
    0/U 20/U    11/U    10/U    00/U    10/U    10/U
LVM 082 047/081 042/079 048/083 052/088 057/090 058/090
    0/N 01/U    21/U    10/U    01/U    11/B    22/T
HDN 085 054/082 053/080 056/083 059/089 061/092 064/092
    0/U 20/U    11/U    21/U    00/U    10/U    11/U
MLS 085 057/081 056/080 057/082 059/086 061/089 063/091
    0/U 20/U    21/B    31/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 085 056/081 057/079 058/080 058/084 060/088 063/089
    0/U 10/U    32/T    41/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 083 056/080 056/078 055/079 056/082 058/085 061/087
    0/U 20/U    32/T    32/T    11/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 087 055/082 053/081 055/082 055/087 058/090 061/091
    0/U 00/U    12/T    32/T    11/U    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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