Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 310032

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
732 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

A foggy night is expected with areas of locally dense fog
possible. The next disturbance will move into the region
spreading rain across the area on Tuesday. Expect increasing
chances of rain Wednesday through Friday with slightly cooler
temps as the next storm system approaches. Fair and much cooler
conditions expected Saturday, with some uncertainty for Sunday.


Evening radar depicts light returns south and west of the
forecast area. Regional observations suggest that this is not
reaching the ground and while some drizzle cannot be ruled out
tonight, little to no rainfall accumulation is expected. The
primary issue tonight will be the likely development of
widespread fog, some of which may be locally dense. Plentiful
low-level moisture is present as evidenced by the existing
stratus across a large portion of the forecast area and low
dewpoint depressions. It should not take much for existing
cloudiness to reach the ground dropping visibilities as the
night goes on. Temperatures will not cool much tonight due to
the low clouds and fog with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.


The upper level pattern during this short term period will
feature a somewhat quasi-zonal flow with west-southwesterly
500mb flow on Tuesday flattening a bit more westerly by
Wednesday with a northern stream wave translating east from the
Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes region into New England.
At the surface, a cold front will gradually sink southeastward
into the Appalachians on Tuesday before nearly stalling Tuesday
night as it becomes oriented parallel to the upper flow, then
begins to shift south as a backdoor front through into our area
on Wednesday as 500mb flow becomes confluent over New England
driving the front southward. Ensemble guidance shows a lot of
spread in the temperature forecast for Wednesday as there is
some uncertainty on when and how far south the front may push,
resulting in hybrid cold air damming across NC and into the
northern Midlands with warmer temps near the CSRA and southeast

West southwesterly flow aloft will through this period will
keep abundant moisture over the region with PWATs around 200-250
percent of normal. A series of weak waves will continue to pass
by just to our north and west through this period which will
keep some pops in the forecast given the moisture in place but
the northern and western Midlands will be most favored, and the
overall rainfall amounts are expected to be light in our area.
Temperatures should remain above normal through this period.


A strong southern stream positively tilted upper trough will
shift eastward from Texas across the Mississippi Valley on
Thursday, phasing with northern stream energy digging
southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region.
Increasing southwesterly flow at 850mb atop the hybrid wedge
over the area will result in increasing isentropic lift north of
the stalled frontal boundary so will reflect increasing pops to
likely/categorical on Thursday. Low pressure will develop along
the western Gulf Coast and shift northeastward into the
Tennessee Valley and cross our area Thursday night. Cannot rule
out isolated thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon as the
stalled front lifts northward through the forecast area with the
eastern Midlands and CSRA possibly getting into the warm sector
ahead of the approaching cold front. The strongest moisture
advection and upper forcing with strong upper level divergence
crosses the forecast area late Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night and this is the period of most likely heavy
rainfall. EFI hinting at anomalously high rainfall during this
period across parts of our forecast area and WPC has parts of
the forecast area in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.

A much colder and drier air mass will begin to build into the
region on Friday behind the cold front with Saturday looking to
be the coldest day as arctic air spills southward across the
Carolinas beneath generally zonal westerly flow aloft. Another
upper trough will dig southeastward across the middle of the
country into the Ohio Valley late Saturday which will induce
return southeasterly low level flow above the boundary layer
bringing moisture back into the region. Some isentropic lift is
expected to develop late Saturday night into Sunday with light
precipitation possible, and surface temperatures will need to be
monitored as there is a non zero chance of possible wintry mix
but confidence is quite low at this time and pops are quite low.
Chances increase on Sunday as a surface low develops off the
coast but then decrease Sunday night as the low lifts
northeastward away from the region.


Restrictions to dominate the TAF period.

Overcast skies through the period. LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS at all
terminals this evening into Tuesday morning. Winds light and
variable to calm. The next disturbance brings ISOLD-SCT -SHRA to the
region during the daylight hours Tuesday, with WLY winds 8-10 kts.
VSBY improvement mid-morning Tuesday with CIGs lifting to MVFR early
Tuesday afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periodic restrictions likely Tuesday
through Friday as a series of weather systems cross the region.




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