Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
741 FXUS62 KCAE 160557 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 157 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper ridging will continue to break down through the mid week, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain chances each day. Upper ridging then returns for the late week and thus weekend, bringing warming temperatures and more typical shower/storm chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Isolated to Scattered Storms this afternoon Skies will likely be mostly clear early this morning with temps falling into the low/mid 70s across the area. No convection is expected with stable air over the forecast area. With crossover temps in the low 70s we may see some patchy fog around sunrise but fog should be restricted to fog prone locations such as near streams and bodies of water. Surface low pressure will shift further west today into the Gulf. The area of subsidence which kept convection rather limited the previous day will also shift west today. This should allow for higher thunderstorm coverage than the previous day. The highest chances are in the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee where subsidence is weaker and the sea breeze helps trigger convection. Instability remains relatively weak for the season limiting the threat of severe weather. The western Midlands may see only isolated storms with some drier air still in place there. CAMs add confidence to the forecast with HREF neighborhood probs of QPF highest along the I-95 corridor and the Pee Dee. Temperatures today will be near normal. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): _ Scattered afternoon thunderstorms forecast each day. Weak troughing will persist at the surface across the Midlands of SC through the next couple days as low pressure meanders across Florida and into the Gulf. Aloft, ridging will hold strong over the southeastern states, building in from the east. A tropical-like airmass will remain in place, resulting in PWAT values pushing 2.0 inches at times. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, aided from the weak troughing at the surface. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall will be the main hazards. The overall severe threat remains low, with ML CAPE values only around 1000 J/kg and no mentionable shear. Storm motions look to be more progressive than previous days, lowering the flooding threat with any thunderstorms. However, a strong to marginally severe storm or locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out where boundary collisions occur. Each evening will feature diminishing rain chances and overnight lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key message(s): - Warming temperatures into the weekend. - Typical summertime pattern will continue with afternoon showers and thunderstorms Upper ridging will prevail aloft over the southeastern states, as supported by ensemble guidance. Additionally high pressure will build in at the surface. The building high pressure will yield warming temperatures, with high temperatures Friday and through the weekend reaching into the upper 90s. Heat index values are forecast to reach to around 100-105 through the weekend. Lacking any large scale forcing, a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms is forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions likely outside of afternoon convection Restrictions not expected this morning with slightly drier air over the region. Models have shown some indications of stratus/fog toward daybreak, but they have been too aggressive over the past few nights. So instead we went more with a persistence forecast keeping VFR conditions in place. Winds will be more out of the S/SSE today with speeds near 10 kts in the afternoon. Convection will develop this afternoon. Yesterday`s area of subsidence which kept showers isolated has shifted west. This will allow scattered thunderstorms with higher coverage than the previous day particularly in the eastern FA and Pee Dee where the sea breeze develops and moisture is deeper. Storms should subside shortly after 00Z as winds become light and variable. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical seasonal restrictions continue with daily convection and patchy early morning fog/stratus possible. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$