Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 200048
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
848 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure in the Southern Appalachians tonight will be
in the Middle Atlantic States Saturday. A lingering trough will
help support a continued chance of showers in the forecast area
through Saturday. The low will direct cool air into the region.
High pressure will be dominate Easter Sunday and early next week.
It will be dry with a warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Radar trends support showers exiting the northeast part this
evening. It will be much cooler in the wake of the cold front.
It will be breezy but winds will likely be just below lake wind
advisory criteria overnight based on the GFS and NAM Bufkit
momentum transfer tool. The guidance consensus supports lows
near 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper low pulling away from the area will provide cold air
aloft especially across north and northwest SC through Saturday.
Diurnal heating and lingering moisture should support scattered
showers. Breezy conditions will persist through Saturday
evening before the pressure gradient begins to relax. Dry high
pressure will become more dominate Easter Sunday. Below normal
temperatures will moderate Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF and GFS models forecast high pressure across the region
through Wednesday with conditions continuing to warm each day.
This will keep dry conditions in place with mostly clear skies
through midweek. By Thursday, the GFS model hints at a positive
tilted trof moving into the region The 19/00z ECMWF run shows
this as a stronger feature. Moisture will be questionable by
midweek and current forecast keeps pops just under the slight
chance threshold.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Heavier convective activity now east of our TAF sites. Surface
front to come through tonight, with winds shifting to WSW, with
breezy conditions expected to continue through Saturday, as
strong low pressure to our north moves slowly NE. Some drier low
level air coming in behind the front, but cold temperatures
aloft due to a deep upper trough expected to support scattered
light showers through Saturday afternoon. Expect high end MVFR
to low end VFR CIGs through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No impacts to aviation expected Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99


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