National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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FXUS62 KCAE 161049
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
649 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak surface pressure ridge over the region will weaken today
with southerly flow ushering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
into the area through much of the week. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will return to the forecast early this week with
increasing chances in coverage through the week. Temperatures
will warm to above normal by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak pressure ridge over the area will be weakening through the
day as southerly flow increases. This will advect moisture into
the region through the day with pwat values increasing to around
1.5 inches this afternoon however models indicate a mid level
cap which will suppress convection. As such expect some diurnal
cumulus to develop during the late morning and afternoon hours
then diminish with sunset. Temperatures this afternoon will be
in the low 90s for highs with overnight lows tonight in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night...Air mass expected to be moderately
unstable during the afternoon with precipitable water around 1.5
inches. Limiting factors for convection continues to be surface
and upper ridge offshore extending into the area with resulting
mid level capping. Triggers for convection remain limited mainly
associated with a potential sea breeze front and Piedmont
trough. Will continue with isolated afternoon storms with
temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Any convection should be
diurnal with low pops overnight. Late night stratus possible
with high low-level moisture. Low temperatures slightly above
normal in the low 70s.

Tuesday...Models trending more moist on Tuesday as mid level
trough approaches from the Mississippi Valley. Precipitable
water may increase to above 1.75 inches. With moderate
instability and weaker ridging, will continue chance pops mainly
in the afternoon although convection could linger in the
evening. Max temperatures around 90 degrees with a little more
cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An series of short wave troughs will move through the region
from the Midwest mid to late week with the stronger wave
possibly late Thursday. High low-level moisture and moderate
instability both Wednesday and Thursday with stronger triggers,
so higher chance afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lower pops
Friday into the weekend as upper ridging and drier air across
the area behind the trough. Temperatures at or above normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through most of the TAF period with stratus/fog
possible through 13z.

High pressure ridge will slowly weaken over the region today
with southerly flow increasing. Current satellite imagery and
surface obs show some stratus and fog has developed in and
around the terminals...expect this to mix out by 13z with all
sites VFR through the evening. With southerly flow advecting
moisture into the region cumulus will develop from late morning
through the afternoon hours. Convection this afternoon will be
limited to the sea breeze and potential at any terminal remains
too low to include attm. Winds through the period will be south
southwesterly at 9 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Southerly flow will continue
increasing moisture and chances of diurnal convection and late
night/early morning fog/stratus through Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
