Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 200813
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
413 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will slowly lift back northward as a warm
front across the region today into tonight. The region will
remain in a very moist air mass this weekend and into early next
week. Low pressure will approach from the southwest on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Moderate to locally heavy rain across the whole area today as
warm, moist air from the southwest overrides cool low level
northeast flow. Surface cold front slid just a bit further south
than expected, and as of 4am is just south of Bangor. Expect
the front to begin to inch back north as a warm front today and
then surge north tonight through the whole area, with steady or
slowly rising temperatures. Areas of fog another hazard. Rain
will be more intermittent tonight than today and favoring
eastern portions of the forecast area. See hydrology discussion
for more on the flooding threat.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Rainfall will be less organized across the Rgn Sun and Sun ngt
as sct rn shwrs with all of the FA in semi-warm sector
conditions. Areas of morn fog will lift across the area by
midday, xcpt alg the very coast where patchy fog will persist
even into the aftn with areas of fog returning on land late Sun
ngt into Mon morn.

Another weak sfc low associated with the remnants of the SE U.S,
upper low will likely spread more organized rnfl upwards to 0.25
to 0.50 inches back into spcly the SE hlf of the FA Mon contg
into Mon eve with cooler air movg back into the area Mon ngt as
steadier rnfl moves E of the FA, leaving late ngt sct rn and
higher trrn NW rn-sn shwrs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Longer range Models are only in fair agreement with the
evolution of wx systems for the mid to late week. Most models do
agree that low pres from a s/wv complex alf from S Cntrl Can and
the Nrn great lks could bring the Rgn the next chc of precip
late Tue ngt til Wed eve, but differ on the tmg and placement of
the best dynamics. This system will be colder, bringing the
potential of wet snfl durg morn and ovrngt hrs with stronger
dynamics, but we are not committed to mention any sig snfl attm
given model spread of outcomes. We do go with max PoPs in the
likely range. After a break on Thu thru Fri morn, another low
pres system from the midwest could bring additional precip msly
in the form of rn to the rgn late Fri into Fri ngt, but there is
less certainty with this system, which appears at odds with
CPC`s 6-10 precip outlook which favored increased probs of drier
conditions attm.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Widespread rain and low clouds today and tonight.
Generally IFR or LIFR. Exception is some locally MVFR and even
VFR ceilings from KHUL north to KFVE, likely due to downsloping
off the New Brunswick highlands. Tentatively expect ceilings to
lower to IFR early this morning as the persistent rain helps
solidify present scattered cloud deck between 500 and 1000 feet
AGL.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly MVFR clgs with areas of IFR clgs and
vsbys with more organized rnfl, msly ovr Downeast sites on Mon
and then all sites late Tue ngt into Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Moist southerly flow with areas of fog over the
waters. Small craft winds today ease somewhat into tonight,
though seas remain above 5 feet into tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A lengthy pd of SCA seas will linger thru
Sun and even into Sun ngt before seas subside below 5 ft on Mon
and cont so thru Tue. Otherwise, patchy to areas of marine fog
will cont to at least Mon morn as moist sub trop air comes into
contact with the cold Gulf of ME ssta`s. Went with blended
WW3/NWPS guidance for fcst wv hts thru these ptns of the fcst.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This weekend marks one of the most potentially eventful hydro
events in years that covers much of the forecast area. The
combination of remaining deep snowpack in northern zones and the
clash with a very warm and humid air mass on the backside of a
Bermuda High will put a lot of water in the rivers. A stationary
front will mark the boundary of the clash across the state
into Saturday and bring three separate hydro concerns. First is
remaining ice jams on the Aroostook and Saint John Rivers. The
second concern is urban and small stream flooding due the
combination of heavy rain and snow melt into Saturday. The last
concern will be the response of main stem rivers Sunday into
Monday.

In terms of the ice jams, a Flood Warning remains in effect
today along a portion of the Aroostook River. The gauge at
Washburn is reading nearly 17 feet as of early this morning and
is right on the border between minor and moderate flood stage.
The gauge will continue to show fluctuations and Aroostook
Emergency Management reported that Gardner Creek Road near
Washburn remain closed due to an ice jam that extends from
upstream of the Washburn bridge towards Crouseville. Emergency
Management is also watching the Parsons Road between Washburn
and Presque Isle. We are watching ice jams on the Saint John
near Saint Francis, Frenchville and Van Buren, but have no need
to issue warnings at this time. Most or all ice jam issues
should be resolved by later this weekend as rivers continue to
rise.

A point Flood Warning also remains in effect for the
Mattawamkeag above Mattawamkeag until further notice. The river
is near 14 feet early this morning and is expected to slowly
rise to 16 feet by early Tuesday morning. At 14 feet, flooding
begins along the Bancroft Road between Wytopitlock and Danforth.

Snow melt and rainfall could cause minor flooding road issues
These types of issues will be exacerbated by locally heavy
rainfall today for small streams. The Flood Watch is now in
effect through Monday evening. The combination of rainfall of
1.5 to 3 inches of rain along with significant snowmelt in areas
that still have snow on the ground will lead to significant
rises on larger streams Saturday and Saturday night...and on
main stem rivers Sunday into early next week. There is
confidence that smaller streams will flood. There is also high
confidence that some areas will experience minor to moderate
flooding. Confidence is not as high as to whether any areas will
experience major flooding, but it is a possibility. There are
uncertainties in terms of the exact remaining SWE that will
empty into rivers. According to dam operators, storage capacity
in the Penobscot watershed is favorable and that will help
mitigate potential main stem issues.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Saturday through Monday evening for
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015-031-032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MEZ001>006-010-011-015-
     031-032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Foisy
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Foisy/VJN
Marine...Foisy/VJN
Hydrology...TF/VJN


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