Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 251825
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
225 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An occluded front approaching from the west will cross the area
tonight. Low pressure over central Canada combined with weak
high pressure off the coast will maintain a warm and humid flow
of air through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure lifting through eastern Ontario tonight will pull
an occluded front into the area this evening. Clouds will
continue to increase this evening and some rain showers are
likely later this evening through the overnight period. A weak
secondary low will try to form along the coastal front over
southern New England overnight. Most of the shower activity will
be likely along, and just north of this weak secondary as it
pushes just south of our coast. Rainfall will be lighter and
more spotty further north. The occluded front will dissipate and
continue east into New Brunswick on Wednesday. Low pressure
over James Bay combined with high pressure just south of the
Maritimes will channel warm and humid air north into the area on
Wednesday. A low overcast will linger Wednesday morning
followed by some breaks of sunshine, especially over central and
western areas, during the afternoon. Soundings showers a stable
layer across the area Wednesday. However, there is just a slight
chance of a stray thundershower along the western edge of our
area late in the day as an upper trough to the west approaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak ridge of higher pressure will retreat to the east as a
cold front moves into NW Maine at the start of the period. The
front will move into central Maine morning bringing showers, the
east of the area in the afternoon, a secondary boundary will
move into western Maine in the afternoon bringing showers and
isolated thunderstorms to the area. This boundary will clear the
area early Friday morning. Higher pressure will briefly ridge
in Friday morning. A trough moving around an upper low over
northern Quebec will move through northern and eastern Maine
Friday afternoon.

The models they were in good agreement overall through the short
term of the forecast period. Loaded a blend of the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor differences in the
models.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A upper level low over Northern Quebec will be the primary
weather maker through the extended period. It will spin off
trough on a regular basis through the period producing showers
and isolated thunderstorms. There will be brief periods of fair
weather between the troughs

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Ceilings will lower to MVFR this evening then IFR
overnight in lowering clouds and some fog. IFR conditions
Wednesday morning will likely improve to MVFR and possibly VFR
at times during the midday and afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Generally MVFR conditions through the period with
unsettle weather conditions. Periods of IFR conditions during
showers and thunderstorms, then conditions will return to MVFR.
A few hours of VFR flight conditions followed by several hours
of MVFR to IFR with showers and or thunderstorms will continue
through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A few wind gusts out of the south may approach 25 kt
late tonight. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to be below
SCA tonight and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels
through the period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...Bloomer/Norton
Marine...Bloomer/Norton


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