Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 200557
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1257 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather and occasional showers will impact the region
through Wednesday. Otherwise...below normal temperatures through
Thanksgiving day with precipitation returning to the area late
Friday...continuing off and on through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
There were no changes made to the ongoing forecast. Just updated
hourly temperatures and precip chances through tonight.

Previous discussion...
Rain and snow showers continue along a line from Mt Vernon
northeast into Meadville PA this afternoon. This activity is
expected to continue to shift slowly east through the evening
hours. Much of the area should be dry by Tuesday
morning...except the snow belt. The short term models continue
to indicate favorable conditions for lake effect snow to develop
after midnight and continue through at least the late morning
hours on Tuesday. Far eastern Erie County PA could see a quick 2
to 4 inches by noon tomorrow. Elsewhere in the snow belt...a
quick inch or two is possible. There will be a break in the snow
activity for much of the afternoon and early evening hours on
Tuesday before another potential return of snow showers to the
snow belt late on Tuesday night.

Daytime high temperatures will remain below normal under upper
level northwest flow. Expect temperatures to generally remain in
the low to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday morning
we will have the second of two quick moving cold fronts sweep
across the eastern Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley. An area of
snow showers will accompany the front, primarily in the morning
and primarily from Cleveland eastward. A few flurries will be
possible elsewhere. The moisture will become limited for the
afternoon with lighter snow showers. All in all a light event
with snow from late Tuesday night through Wednesday on the order
of 1 to 3 inches across the snowbelt. This front will usher in
chillier air to occupy the Thanksgiving holiday. Fortunately it
looks dry with high pressure firmly across the area. Did not go
as cold Wednesday night as guidance for two reasons. First
guidance has been running cool at night and second because we
should retain a fair amount of clouds. The exception may be far
northeast OH/northwest PA that may see some clearing during the
second half of the night. That still gives us teens and lower
20s. Highs Thursday were tweaked down another couple of degrees.
Nearly everyone will stay below freezing. The gentle warm up
will take place Friday where highs with south flow will reach
into the 40s across northern OH and upper 30s across NW PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The onset of precipitation with the next system for Friday
night/Saturday is still wavering. If it arrives too early Friday
night then we may be facing some mixed precip at onset. Did put in
the chance for freezing rain across the cooler northwest PA areas
early Saturday morning. Otherwise Saturday will climb into the 40s
with occasional showers/rain. Again the GFS is the fastest. As, for
the early part of next week, it will depend on where the early
weekend upper low is positioned and how much and when cold air wraps
in behind it. For now keep chance pops in the forecast for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Mainly VFR conditions far west and MVFR elsewhere across the
region to start. Models show Low pressure at the surface with an
upper trough moving through the Great Lakes. Expect conditions
to drop to MVFR west after about 08Z or so as light snow moves
in. This light snow will likely spread east across he region
through the night. Drier air will move in from the west on
Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Expect Non-VFR again Tuesday night as low pressure
moving through the central lakes drags another cold front
through the area. Non-VFR possible Wednesday and Wednesday night
CLE ERI YNG CAK in lake effect snow.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the lake toward morning, but winds will pick
up during the day Tuesday from the northwest and the lake will
become choppy. Waves are still borderline during the day Tuesday for
the need for a small craft advisory but it will be most certainly be
needed by evening. Winds will back to the west Tuesday evening ahead
of another cold front to sweep across the eastern lakes early
Wednesday morning. The west-northwest winds behind this front will
be stronger and may be pushing close to gales on the east end of the
lake. Winds will come around to the north and northeast by Thursday
as high pressure build across the eastern Great Lakes.A period of
southerly flow will take place Friday and Saturday as the high
shifts east and a system moves across the central U.S.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Riley
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Riley
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Oudeman


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