Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 031425
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1025 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south across the region
Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. The cold front
will become nearly stationary across central Ohio Wednesday night.
Another weaker cold front will track east across the area on Friday
night. This front will slowly sag north on Thursday before another
cold front moves east across the region on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fairly wholesale changes to the forecast through the rest of the
day. A lull in convective activity is noted across the forecast
area with a large stable airmass encompassing the entire
forecast area per latest SPC mesoanalysis. Hi-res guidance
suggests that MLCAPE will be slow to build through the day with
a broad swath of MLCIN remaining across the area north of the
US-30 corridor. The guidance suggests that MLCAPE values will
peak between 500-100 j/kg south of the US-30 corridor by mid
afternoon before being shunted south of the area. The peak of
the instability and focus for convective development this
afternoon with the majority of the CAMs is along the I-70
corridor, well south of the forecast area. Have opted to cut
pops significantly across the area, with a few hours of low
likely pops across the far southern portion of the forecast
area, with a chance pops a bit farther north tapering off to dry
conditions along/north of the I-80 corridor. Current feeling is
that the severe threat for the afternoon will continue to
diminish and be focused south of the forecast area, but will
wait for another few rounds of hi-res guidance updates and
reassess during the midday update.

Original discussion...Attention then turns towards the central
and southern portions of the CWA where a moderate plume of
instability of 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, associated with
effective shear of 30 to 35 knots will reside. This area is
highlighted with a slight risk (level 2/5) by the Day 1 SPC
outlook. This activity will begin in the early afternoon along
or just ahead of a southward, slow-moving cold front, then shift
south across central Ohio through the evening hours. The main
threats with the thunderstorms later today will be heavy rain,
damaging winds, and possibly some small hail with DCAPE values
near 1000 J/kg and large mid-level theta-e differences of up to
30 degrees. Some patchy fog may be possible across the central
and northern portions of the area as mid-level dry air arrives.
Only concern would be that this may end up as low stratus with
moderate surface flow (5 to 10 knots) and residual cloud cover.

Finally, on Thursday, the cold front will be located across central
Ohio and become nearly stationary. As the front slowly sags north,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again along the
front, though mainly along or just south of US-30. Storm activity
does not look to be as intense as on Wednesday, with effective shear
values in the 20 to 25 knot range albeit with modest instability of
around 1500 to 2000 MLCAPE. Damaging winds and heavy rain would be
the primary threats. This area is covered with a marginal risk
(level 1/5) by the SPC day 2 outlook.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Thunderstorms should diminish quickly heading into Thursday evening
as we lose diurnal heating. A warm and unstable airmass will be in
place for one more day on Friday with scattered activity developing
again. The better forcing holds off until evening so will only go
with 30 to 50 pops but linger through the evening ahead of the front
in NE Ohio and NW PA. A drier and more comfortable airmass arrives
behind the front for the weekend with highs generally in the upper
70s to lower 80s on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cooler airmass will be in place by Sunday with 850mb
temperatures of 6 to 8 C. Highs will be as much as 5 degrees below
normal across the eastern half of the forecast area. Large area of
surface high pressure slowly drifts to the East Coast through
Tuesday. Temperatures will warm on Monday as the ridge builds aloft
with a better push of warm advection arriving on Tuesday as the flow
flips around to the southwest. Went a couple degrees above guidance
on Tuesday into the mid to upper 80s but seeing several locations
hit or surpass 90 degrees would not be surprising.

By the middle of next week we will be monitoring the remnants of
Tropical Storm Cristobal as it moves north through the Mississippi
Valley towards the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes Region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Thunderstorms associated with an MCS moving out of Canada
overnight should be almost done at ERI but may still impact YNG
through 14Z. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm
remain possible at other terminals this morning but expecting
trends to improve. Otherwise VFR conditions expected today with
scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon, generally
along a line from FDY/MFD/CAK in the 19-23Z window.
Thunderstorms today will produce heavy rainfall and both IFR
conditions and some stronger wind gusts possible.

Surface moisture will remain high tonight and could see some
MVFR visibilities develop where skies clear enough.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Wednesday night/Thursday morning
in patchy fog and again Friday night with a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds are elevated on Lake Erie this morning ahead of a
trough and complex of strong thunderstorms over southern Ontario.
Winds will shift to the west behind the thunderstorms this morning
with the potential for some thunderstorms to be severe, mainly east
of Geneva-on-the-Lake through 10 AM. Winds will be erratic at times
this morning before settling back into a light west southwest wind
later today. Lake breezes are possible Thursday. A pattern shift
will arrive Friday night into Saturday when a cold front moves south
across Lake Erie. North to northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will
follow for the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...KEC/Greenawalt/Kahn
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC


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