Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 150118
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
918 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build northeast through the Ohio valley tonight and
Sunday. A weak cold front will sink south through the region
Sunday night through Monday, with high pressure returning to the
area Monday night through midweek. Above average temperatures are
expected through the forecast period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
No changes with the mid evening update. Previous discussion.

An area of high pressure was located near Cincinnati this
afternoon and continues to build into the Ohio Valley Region.
The center of the high pressure will be near southeast
Pennsylvania by Sunday morning. It will be a fantastic evening
for any outdoor plans with light winds and comfortable
temperatures. Low humidity levels and temperatures falling down
into the middle to upper 50s are expected tonight. Slightly
milder temperatures will remain along the lakeshore, but still
pleasant to open the windows type conditions.

Southerly winds will return on Sunday on the back side of the
exiting high pressure system. Slightly warmer temperatures are
expected Sunday and went a few degrees above guidance with high
temperatures lower to maybe middle 80s. A weak cold front will
move down into the eastern Great Lakes region late Sunday night
with some clouds and a slight chance for few scattered showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak cold front will settle south across the area Monday
morning. A few residual light showers will be possible during
the morning, mainly downwind of Lake Erie in the east. Expecting
partly to mostly cloudy skies with the front for the first half
of the day then scattering out from north to south during the
afternoon. Highs on Monday expected to drop back 3 to 5 degrees
across the northeast part of the area behind the front.

High pressure builds in behind the front from Quebec to the eastern
Great Lakes. Temperatures will be a degree or so cooler on Tuesday
but drier air will bring lower humidity with mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains in control for much of next week while the
upper level ridge builds overhead. Temperatures trend towards well
above normal values by the end of the week. Went a couple degrees
above guidance values each day which have a bias towards
climatological normals in the later periods. The operational 12Z GFS
tries to bring a front with some showers through on Friday but is an
outlier from both other long range models and the GFS ensemble
mean which maintain a strong ridge so will keep the forecast
dry with continued warmth.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Largely VFR conditions for the next 24 hours with high pressure
overhead. Small possibility for brief early morning BR in the
vicinity of YNG, but likely no other TAF terminals affected.
Otherwise an influx of some mid cloud tomorrow with the approach
of a weakening front. Precip not looking too likely. Light
south- southwest winds tonight with some minor gusts around 20
knots Sunday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible late Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue for a few more hours
on the east end of Lake Erie before dropping off and backing to the
southwest. Extended the Small Craft Advisory and High Swimming Risk
for a few more hours as wave heights remain in the 3 to 5 foot
range, especially offshore.

Otherwise southwest winds of 5 to 15 knots develop on Lake Erie on
Sunday, shifting to the northeast by midday Monday in the wave of a
cold front that will pass early Monday morning. Northeast winds of
10-15 knots will cause waves of 1 to 3 feet. There is also a chance
of waterspouts with the frontal passage Monday morning. Beyond that,
high pressure will set up over the eastern Great Lakes again through
the first half of the week with easterly winds of 5 to 15 knots.
Winds shift around to the south towards Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...KEC



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