Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 271424
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
924 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley today. Low pressure
will move through the upper Great Lakes tonight, extending a cold front
east across the area. Another area of low pressure will track northeast
towards Lake Erie on Sunday into Monday. High pressure will return
across the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
920 am update...
The only adjustments we made to the forecast for today is the
hang on to some isolated to scattered flurries or very light
snow showers through the rest of the morning hours, generally
along and east of the Cleveland and Mansfield areas. The very
light snow showers/flurries should come to an end by midday. No
additional accumulation with this morning`s flurries are
expected. The rest of the forecast for today and tonight looks
on track at this time.

Previous update...
Have gone ahead and canceled the remaining advisories since
only light snow remains across the area this morning. However,
since temperatures have fallen into the 20s, there could still
be patches of black ice which may cause some issues for the
morning commute. Have also slightly revised the sky cover
forecast to be more optimistic for later this morning and early
afternoon, especially across NW OH where clear skies, albeit
briefly, are possible.

Previous Discussion...
For today, some of the region could actually see some sunshine
and may have to adjust sky cover accordingly in the 630 AM
update since we`re already seeing clear skies across much of IL
and portions of northwest IN. However, this sunshine will be
short-lived as just off to the west in IA/WI, we see the next
system which will impact the area later this evening and
overnight. Low pressure will move east across the Upper Great
Lakes today, first extending a warm front through the area this evening,
followed by a cold front overnight. Along and ahead of the warm
front this evening, temperatures will be cold enough to support
snow, some of which could be briefly heavy with strong lift and
moisture within the DGZ. However, precipitation type will
quickly switch back over to rain behind the warm front which
will limit overall snow accumulations and overall impacts. The
warm front and strong warm air advection will also bring gusty,
southwest winds across the area, upwards of 30 to 35 mph in the
late afternoon and evening.

The cold front will finally arrive across the area later
tonight, supporting a transition back over to snow, although the
influx of dry air should limit overall precipitation coverage.
For Saturday, the cold front will stall just south of the area
which should lead to mainly quiet, but cloudy, weather with
temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front should lift out over Lake Erie Saturday night as the next
ripple of low pressure travels along the frontal boundary. The low
should cross Ohio early Sunday morning, reaching central NY by
Sunday afternoon. The best chances of rain occur from around
midnight into Sunday afternoon, then attempting to end from
west to east. However it will be colder in the wake of this
frontal boundary so we will have to see if we can get some lake
effect/enhanced snow to develop. Conditions are not ideal for
this but will keep chance POP`s across NE OH into NW PA into at
least Monday evening. Any snow accumulations Sunday night
through Monday night should range from a dusting to maybe 2
inches. Although a couple higher terrain locations may see
locally higher amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The center of high pressure looks like it moves over Ohio on Tuesday
with maybe a brief period of sunshine. It looks to be short lived as
low pressure moves from the western Gulf of Mexico region to the Mid-
Atlantic Coast by Tuesday night. This may spread some light snow Westerly winds attempted to lull a bit today, but a push of stronger
southwest winds is spreading over the lake this evening. This has
prompted an extension of the Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM for all
of the central and eastern nearshore waters. Brief 20 knot sustained
winds may occur over the western nearshore waters this evening, but
with an offshore flow don`t feel it will warrant a Small Craft
Advisory unless winds get a few knots stronger than forecast. The
next shift will keep an eye on it. After a brief break into Friday
morning, another round of Small Craft Advisories will be needed for
strong offshore flow Friday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold
front, with conditions likely lingering into Saturday morning with
winds shifting more westerly behind the cold front. Expect these
headlines to be hoisted overnight once we resolve the current
headline.

Winds turn southwesterly Saturday night as the front lifts back
north as a warm front, before turning more northerly behind the
front through the day Sunday. Sustained winds may exceed 20 knots
ahead of the front Saturday night into early Sunday over the open
waters. Small Craft Advisories may be needed behind the front later
Sunday into Sunday night on the northerly flow.into the
southeastern CWA (County Warning Area). We will need to monitor
the track of this low. Any northward shift could bring more
snow.

Models then diverge on how to handle weather conditions across the
CWA Wednesday through Thursday night. Current models take the
strongest area of low pressure across the southern US with an upper
level trough over the Great Lakes region. Not all that much moisture
to generate precipitation over northern OH and NW PA. Maybe some
light lake enhanced snow showers across NE OH into NW PA as the
upper level trough passes overhead. Definitely doesnt look to be any
significant impacts to the region.

It will be cooler though the long term period with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Still MVFR conditions across the TAF sites this morning,
generally associated with low ceilings and light snow, although
improving conditions in the form of VFR will arrive from west
to east through the morning and afternoon. Deterioration back
down to MVFR will occur as the next system approaches this evening.
IFR vsbys from initial bursts of snow are possible as the
system moves west to east across the TAF sites this evening and
overnight.

Winds are generally out of the west to southwest around 10
knots this morning. Winds will gradually shift towards the
south to southwest through today, increasing to 15 to 20 knots
with gusts up to 30 knots possible by later this afternoon and
evening. The highest gusts will be found at ERI up to 35 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR may persist on Saturday in lower ceilings.
Non-VFR likely Saturday night through Sunday in rain and low
ceilings, transitioning to snow Sunday night. Non-VFR may
persist into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds briefly decrease this morning into early afternoon. As low
pressure moves across central Ontario to Quebec through tonight
winds increase from the south and southwest. Speeds may reach 30
knots this evening into the overnight. In the wake of the cold front
westerly winds slowly decrease from west to east. It looks like it
takes into Saturday afternoon for waves to subside enough to allow
the small craft advisory to end across the eastern third of the
lake.

The cold front that moves across the region tonight looks like it
stalls over central Ohio before lighting northward across the lake
Saturday night. Another ripple of low pressure tracks along this
frontal boundary with increased south to southwest winds. So we may
end up needing a short small craft advisory overnight Saturday into
early Sunday. A stronger cold front crosses the lake by Sunday
evening as high pressure ridges into the area from the Northern
Plains. This high eventually moves over Ohio on Tuesday. Northerly
winds should increase with the arrival of the colder air Monday but
believe speeds remain around 15 knots. Unfortunately this may end
being strong enough to build waves up to 4 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ144>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LEZ148-149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Kahn
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...MM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.