Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230019
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
719 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will move east toward Ohio late tonight into
Wednesday bringing widespread precipitation to the area. A
significant warming trend is expected on Wednesday...with a
cooling trend expected into the weekend. A series of weak storm
systems will brush the area Thursday into the weekend bringing
unsettled weather to the region through at least the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Update...Added Ottawa and Sandusky counties to the advisory.

Original...An upper low will move slowly from Kansas this
evening northeast toward southern Wisconsin by late Wednesday
morning. This will bring precipitation into northwest Ohio later
this evening spreading east into NW PA Wednesday morning. A
warm front will spread north across the region during this time
frame...with a significant warming trend...meaning much of the
precipitation will fall in the form of rain. There will be a
brief window later tonight into early tomorrow morning where
freezing rain will be a possibility..especially across Lucas and
Wood Counties.

Precipitation should move east out of the region by Wednesday
evening...with a few lingering showers possible across the
eastern third of the area.

When all is said and done...much of the area is expected to pick
up between two-thirds of an inch to an inch of rain. This is
combination with daytime temperatures in the 40s and rain
melting a bit of the snow...we could see some significant rises
on area rivers. At this time most look to stay below flood
stage...but it is something we will continue to monitor over the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A cold front associated with a surface low over Michigan will
trail behind the precipitation...approaching western Ohio by the
early afternoon hours on Wednesday...exiting east out of NW PA
by the evening hours. This will result in a cooling trend and a
switch back to snow Wednesday evening the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering light snow will be slowly decreasing across our far
eastern areas early Thursday morning. Some lingering lake enhanced
light snow showers may still be going on across the primary Snowbelt
areas as well. A deep upper level trough develops over the Great
Lakes Region and a strong Arctic cold front moves through the area
late Thursday. Winds will increase from the west-northwest late in
the day and temperatures will fall. As the Arctic airmass invades
the area Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, scattered snow
showers area wide will develop, especially downwind of the
lake. Models indicate bands of Lake Effect snow will become
likely Thursday night into Friday for the primary Snowbelt.

Models continue to indicate moderate to locally heavy Lake Effect
snow will be possible for far northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania in the primary Snowbelt on Friday lasting through
Saturday. Some early estimates of localized 6 to 12 plus inches may
be possible with a good west to east fetch of wind from the lake.
The blast of cold and wind chills will be the main weather storm
elsewhere with scattered light snow showers for the end of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For a brief period of time, we will see a return southerly flow
Saturday night and early on Sunday ahead of the next cold front and
clipper like system. Widespread light snow for everywhere will be
possible on Sunday with the passage of another front and shortwave.
Another stronger clipper like system with better lift and moisture
may bring another round of light snow to the area early next week.
The is not much confidence on exact timing and amounts but the main
message we are conveying in the long term is that it will be colder
than average and several chances of snow for the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Precipitation is now moving into nwrn OH and will spread east
across the region this evening into the overnight hours...with
MVFR/IFR for much of the area by 12z. Expect a brief period of
mixed winter precipitation at KTOL and KFDY...possibly extending
slightly east around the 03-09z time frame. Otherwise...breezy
south winds expected at all terminals after 06z. After 12z
expect widespread IFR/LIFR.

OUTLOOK...Occasional non-VFR Wednesday evening through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will increase this evening through Wednesday morning
between 15 to 25 knots. We have issued a Small Craft Advisory for
ice free areas of the near shore water. A cold front will shift
winds late Wednesday to the west-northwest 15 to 25 knots through
Wednesday night. A strong Arctic front will move across the lake
late Thursday with strong gusty west-northwest winds between 20 to
30 knots. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed
for the end of the week as well as possible Heavy Freezing Spray
alerts. There will be a brief delay in ice formation but Arctic air
for the end of the week and weekend will likely cause rapid ice
formation again. Strong winds will be around over the lake for much
of the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ003-
     006>008.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Riley
NEAR TERM...TK/Riley
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Griffin


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