Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 221923
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
323 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast into the central Great Lakes
tonight and deepen. A cold front trailing from the low will move
east across the local area Tuesday. High pressure will build
east and be centered over northern Ohio and Lake Erie by
Wednesday afternoon and over the Mid-Atlantic states by Thursday
morning. A warm front will move north of the area Wednesday
night. Low pressure will move southeast to Pennsylvania by
Friday night forcing a cold front across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge building east into the area at this time
pushed the upper level positive vorticity maximum off to the
east. Along with the upper level feature, moisture associated
with it shifted east as well. This allowed the extensive cloud
cover to dissipate rather quickly in the east. Generally clear
skies with a few cirrus over the area at this time but that will
change as clouds in advance of the low pressure system approach
the region. Clouds were already pushing into eastern Indiana and
western Ohio and this should spread west to east through the
night. Expecting cold front to approach the forecast area around
12Z tomorrow morning. Latest mixed CAPE values indicating
potential for a few rumbles of thunder with the activity as it
moves through the forecast area tomorrow. Best chance looks like
it will be supported by afternoon heating in the east. Cold
front pushes east across the forecast area tomorrow. High
temperatures could fall upon how soon the rain moves east into
the region. Gradient does increase over the forecast area and
this will cause fairly strong warm air advection into the
region. Most likely eastern areas should climb into the 70s
while western areas in the west will only make it into the 60s.

Warm air advection taking place at this time will help keep
temperatures up in the 50s across the forecast area tonight.
Exception is in the east where 49 may be the low before the best
surge of warm air arrives there.  I may be on the cold side and
possibility exists we could see warmer or warming temperatures
overnight or toward morning. Slightly cooler temperatures
expected Tuesday night as cold air advection takes place.
Clearing will work its way from west to east after showers end
in the east tomorrow evening.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins with high pressure and dry air in place across
the region. On next shot of rain comes Thursday as moisture moves
into the lower Ohio Valley ahead of low pressure in the lower
Mississippi Valley. Some question as to how far it reaches north
into the area with the GFS much drier than the ECMWF.  For now will
have only chance pops far south Thursday.  Thursday night however
the GFS develops low pressure across the area ahead of a short wave
moving through the lakes. This in turn helps to develop moisture
across the region.  Will increase pops to mid/high chance for
showers across the area. Friday the low pulls east and a drier
northerly flow overtakes the region.  Could see a leftover shower
mainly east but dry otherwise. Highs 55 to 65 Wednesday and Friday.
Highs 65 to 70 Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will break down Saturday. Low pressure moving through
the lakes may bring showers to the area mainly Saturday night.
Sunday should be dry with high pressure in place.  Monday will bring
chance pops back as overrunning moisture streams in from the west
along a frontal system ahead of low pressure moving east through the
Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
An upper level disturbance and moisture will continue to move
east and out of the eastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania
areas this afternoon. This feature will cause some middle and
high clouds over the east with some possible virga. Surface
dewpoint/temperature spreads are relatively high so
precipitation should not reach the ground. Elsewhere, mainly
clear skies will prevail or much of the afternoon. Then, as cold
front approaches from the west, clouds will begin to thicken
and lower from west to east. A chance of showers and even a few
rumbles of thunder are expected starting tomorrow morning after
sunrise ahead of an along the cold front. Cold front will move
east of the area tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light and
variable this afternoon and evening and gradually increasing
overnight into tomorrow morning to 12 to 15 knots.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Thursday night and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain light on Lake Erie overnight.  Tuesday however
west and southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots as low
pressure moves northeast through the central lakes. A trailing cold
front will cross the lake from late morning through mid afternoon.
Given the direction, expect waves to be highest offshore with around
2 to 3 feet in the nearshore waters. Expect winds to diminish
Tuesday night as they veer to the northwest. Winds will remain 15
knots or less through the balance of the week and into Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...TK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.