Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 261129
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
629 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Aviation discussion updated for the 12z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today under clear to mostly clear
skies. Light northeast winds will shift to east late this morning
then to the southeast by this evening. With the return of onshore
flow, surface moisture will slowly begin to increase toward the
end of the period. Moisture combined with radiational cooling and
light winds may result in some patchy fog for VCT & ALI after 10z
Saturday morning. However, will forgo mentions of fog in VCT and
ALI TAFs at this time due to lack of confidence in if the
visibility will drop below VFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019/

SHORT TERM (Friday through Saturday)...

Sunny and warm conditions are expected across South Texas today as a
secondary surge of high pressure makes its way into the region. As
the surface high builds, subsidence and dry air will persist and
result in clear skies. Temperatures will be a few degrees above
normal with highs topping off in the low 90s out west and mid to
upper 80s across the Coastal Bend. As the surface high gradually
shifts eastward through the day, the northeasterly winds will
shift to the east this afternoon. By this evening, winds will
continue to veer to the southeast, allowing for surface moisture
to advect back into South Texas overnight. The increasing surface
moisture combined with ample radiational cooling, a deep dry
layer above the surface, and light surface winds, may result in
some patchy fog development across the Coastal Plains from
Victoria to Alice early Saturday morning. Otherwise, quiet and
warm weather will continue through the Saturday with highs similar
to today if not a degree or two warmer.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

A persistent and strengthening return flow pattern will prevail
throughout the entire forecast period.  Breezy/windy conditions will
become more commonplace each day from late morning through early
evening, especially across the southeast Coastal Bend. Will begin
mentioning the potential for light showers on Monday night as the
boundary layer moisture thickens sufficiently enough. Moderate to
high instability and a weakening cap will prevail each
afternoon/evening from Tuesday through Thursday.  The main shortwave
ejecting northeast on Tuesday is expected to remain north of the
CWA.  Will thus only go with slight chance POPs for Tuesday.  A
similar scenario is expected on Wed and Thu as we will be on the
edge of synoptic ascent from several embedded shortwaves ejecting
northeastward.  However with thicknesses leaning into the CWA, we
will need to monitor for any MCS (originating north of the CWA)
propagating southeastward into the area on Wed and Thu.  For now,
will keep in slight chance POPs for midweek. Temps will average
several degrees above normal through the entire period.

MARINE...

Weak northeasterly winds are expected this morning as a secondary
surge of high pressure pushes into the coastal waters.
As the surface high moves to the east, winds will gradually shift
to the east by the afternoon and then to the southeast this
evening. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through
Saturday. The light winds and low swell periods will result in a
LOW rip current risk today and Saturday. However, LOW risk does
not mean no risk. Rip currents can still occur on LOW risk days,
especially in the vicinity of piers and jetties. Early next week,
increasing gradient flow through the week will translate into
marginal SCA conditions developing by Tue and persisting through
Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    86  64  85  66  84  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          85  61  84  64  84  /   0   0   0   0   0
Laredo            93  64  94  65  94  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             88  60  88  63  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          84  68  82  69  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           89  59  91  62  91  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        88  62  87  65  86  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       85  71  82  70  82  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

KW/92...AVIATION


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