Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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672
FXUS64 KCRP 181939
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
239 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night)...

No significant changes were made to the forecast. A 500mb ridge will
remain in place over the southern US. Below normal PWATs will keep
precipitation chances low, with no mentionable PoPs. Warm
temperatures will continue with highs in the mid 90s to 105 and heat
index values 105-109. Southeasterly winds will be breezy in the
afternoon.


&&

LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)...

The mid level ridge will persist through Saturday, then begin to
break down and shift to the northwest late this weekend.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal, with mostly dry
conditions through the weekend as moisture remains limited. The
latest global model solutions continue to indicate the possibility
of a weak cold front moving south into central Texas early next
week, then stall across south Texas by Wednesday, before shifting
back to the north. The GFS is a bit bullish with this front, pushing
it quickly over the waters; the ECMWF has the front stalling just
over the Coastal Bend of Texas.  So, while there is more confidence
in the likelihood of a cold front passing near or through, we will
not push PoPs above 40 percent as the timing is difficult to pin
down. Regardless, the chances for rain will increase by Monday to
Tuesday, mainly to the north and east. Slightly cooler temperatures
are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

.MARINE...

Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible tonight
through Saturday evening, mainly for the southern bays and
nearshore waters. Otherwise, weak to moderate onshore flow will
prevail with seas 2 to 4 feet. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are possible over the waters Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  94  79  95  78  /   0  10   0   0   0
Victoria          77  94  77  95  76  /   0   0   0  10   0
Laredo            78 104  77 104  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             77  99  76  99  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          82  91  81  90  81  /  10  10   0   0  10
Cotulla           77 104  76 103  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        77  97  77  98  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       82  91  82  91  82  /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

EKZ/90...SHORT TERM
LS/77...LONG TERM



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