Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 221732
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1232 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Updated for 18Z Aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Surface low pressure centered over eastern Nebraska early this
morning will move northeastward to northern Lower Michigan by 12Z
Tuesday. A shallow baroclinic zone extended from a surface front
over southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin northward into
northeast Minnesota and western Lake Superior. A southerly low
level jet was present over southern Minnesota north into northwest
Wisconsin. Convergence and frontogenesis aloft will sustain an
area of showers from the Brainerd Lakes to the Twin Ports and
areas south along with all of northwest Wisconsin early this
morning. The low-level jet will weaken and veer southwesterly by
mid-morning rotating the axis of convergence and frontogenesis
counterclockwise and shifting farther southeast. That change will
shift the focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms a bit
farther south and east, mainly over northwest Wisconsin by late
afternoon. Rain chances taper off over northwest Wisconsin this
evening and overnight as the low moves across Wisconsin. An
additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is forecast through this evening
over northwest Wisconsin with lower totals farther west/north.
Flood Watch area looks good and Im not planning any changes to
that headline.

The surface front will lift farther north today and may extend
into southern Price County. Temperatures there may top out in the
low 50s. Highs will be in the 40s along the Lake Superior shore
and points to the southwest as northeasterly winds and
precipitation suppress temperatures in those locations. Partly
cloudy to mainly sunny skies in north-central Minnesota should
support temperatures in the low 60s for this afternoon. Turning
cooler tonight with lows in the middle to low 30s. Tuesday should
trend warmer as weak high pressure moves overhead with plenty of
sunshine. Highs will range from around 50 degrees near Lake
Superior to the middle 60s in central and north-central Minnesota.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

A west-northwest upper level flow will exist across the region
through the period, starting more westerly and ending more
northwest. There are indications of a strong spring storm next
weekend but there remains considerable uncertainty in the strength
and track of the low.

A shortwave and cold front will move through the Northland later
Tuesday night into Wednesday night. These features will bring a
chance for light rain late Tuesday night over northern Minnesota,
over northern Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin Wednesday, and
over much of the Northland Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts
should be a quarter inch or less for most areas. Temperatures will
warm into sixties for most areas on Wednesday. Thursday should be
dry and highs will be in the lower to middle sixties.

A stronger shortwave, in faster west-northwest flow aloft, will
affect the region next Friday night through Saturday night. The
models all show the shortwave and surface low but also show
considerable differences in strength and track. The GFS and
Canadian are much stronger with the surface low and are further
north than the ECMWF. The GFS/Canadian track the surface low
through Minnesota toward Michigan with the ECMWF tracking it just
south of Minnesota and Wisconsin. The GFS also differs quite a bit
from its ensemble mean which has the surface low much further
south. All the models do have enough cold air for some of the
precipitation to fall as snow. We have chances for rain/snow next
Friday night into Saturday night but it`s just too early to
speculate on how significant any snowfall will be.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Widespread rainfall across northwest Wisconsin and east central
Minnesota will come to an end from east to west tonight. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions prevail. HYR will be the site mostly affected by
these storms and will be coming in and out of IFR conditions through
this evening. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible at HYR.
BRD has some fog potential for tomorrow morning. However,
confidence is low at this time and so left the mention of fog out
of the TAF. All TAf sites become VFR after midnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Surface low pressure centered along the Iowa and Nebraska border
will move into southern Wisconsin this evening then continue into
central Michigan tonight. Northeast winds will increase this
morning then decrease later this afternoon and evening. Northeast
winds from 15 to 20 knots with some higher gusts will occur today
and cause waves from 4 to 7 feet from around Silver Bay to the
Twin Ports and along the South Shore. A Small Craft Advisory will
remain in effect through early evening for those areas. The wind
will decrease tonight to less than 15 knots and they will become
north. The wind will be 10 knots or less Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  32  57  39 / 100  10   0  10
INL  62  33  64  44 /  10  10  10  50
BRD  55  33  64  45 /  90   0   0  10
HYR  44  33  60  38 / 100  60   0   0
ASX  40  33  54  36 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch through late tonight for WIZ001>004-006>008.

MN...Flood Watch through late tonight for MNZ038.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     143>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...Melde


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