Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 302036
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
236 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Summary: Quite cold wind chills and air temperatures last through
Thursday night of this work week. A warming trend back into the
twenties is possible starting Saturday. Very light snow cannot be
ruled out Tuesday night, Wednesday night or Saturday evening,
although any accumulations are likely to be minimal if anything.

High pressure in the southern parts of the Midwest and low
pressure over the Hudson Bay keep the Upper Midwest in a cold air
regime today. Another night of very cold wind chills is likely
under this synoptic pattern promoting maximized radiational
cooling, especially in northwest Wisconsin tonight. Another
forecast-area wide Wind Chill Advisory was issued as of this
afternoon to cover this hazard tonight and into the Tuesday
morning commute hours.

The high pressure moves eastward tonight and results in winds
becoming westerly in the mid-levels to southwesterly at the
surface. Daytime high temperatures are expected to rebound on
Tuesday into the mid-single digits above zero. Deterministic
guidance is point to some sort of weak 700-500 mb open shortwave
passing over the Northern Plains Tuesday night. Blended high res
guidance shows up to Chance (40% ) PoPs for this passing wave by
early Wednesday morning. Confidence in this solution is not quite
as high though so only a Slight Chance (20%) of snow was added
into southern and central forecast locations for Tuesday night and
exiting eastward into north-central WI by mid-Wednesday morning.
Could see a few different scenarios playing out where these
minimal, but mentionable, PoPs for Tues night decrease even
further in upcoming forecasts.

Overnight wind chill values for Tuesday and Wednesday nights are
expected to be much less severe across the Northland (-5 to -20
for most locations). The MN Iron Range northward into the
Borderlands may dip down into limited coverage of Wind Chill
Advisory criteria each night though.

A weak Arctic front is expected to pass over north-central CONUS
starting Thursday morning. This will result in another significant
push of very cold air into the Northland. Wind chills Thursday
night are likely to be another period of concern for more of the
forecast areas. Wind Chill headlines may be needed in time then
lasting into Friday morning.

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate a mid-level ridge helping
to advect warmer air into the Upper Midwest starting Saturday.
This may mean daytime high temperatures Saturday near 20 above
zero. Snow may then be possible Saturday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period under Arctic
high pressure keeping skies mainly clear. Broken cigs near 4 kft
above ground level may move over BRD/DLH/HYR Tuesday morning, but
beyond a slight chance of MVFR cigs for an hour or two, prolonged
restrictions are not expected. Light west to northwest winds
around 5-10 knots today back southwesterly tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Gusty westerly winds in western Lake Superior this afternoon will
further increase this evening as they slowly back to the southwest.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect or will shortly go into
effect this evening for these conditions hazardous to small craft.
Conditions are expected to improve Tuesday evening as winds
decrease and elevated wave heights slowly diminish through Tuesday
night. Westerly winds look to remain below 20 knots Wednesday
before shifting northwesterly and increasing late Wednesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -16   6  -6  14 /   0   0  20   0
INL -18   3 -15   8 /   0   0   0   0
BRD -16   8  -6  15 /   0   0  20   0
HYR -19   8  -4  16 /   0   0  20   0
ASX -13   9  -1  17 /   0   0  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday
     for WIZ001>004-006>009.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday
     for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

LS...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM CST Tuesday
     for LSZ140>145.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST Tuesday for LSZ146>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY


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