Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 201952
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
252 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

A mostly dry forecast for tonight through Sunday. There will be
some chances of rain showers on Sunday, mainly over east-central
Minnesota.

The last of the rain showers that developed from a mid-level
shortwave has mostly moved out of northwest Wisconsin this
afternoon, which will lead to mostly clear skies overnight. At
the mid-levels, a ribbon of channeled vorticity will dive
southeastward on the heels of the current wave, which could spark
off some rain showers early this evening. There is some activity
that has developed over far southern Manitoba and southwestern
Ontario this afternoon, but the CAMs have this activity staying
to the north. The robustness of the showers appear to be quite
low, so introduced only a slight chance of rain showers, mainly
along and north of the Iron Range, although some could make its
way towards the Twin Ports and Brainerd Lakes regions. Tonight`s
lows will dip to the lower to middle 50s, with some patchy fog,
especially over northwest Wisconsin where precipitation fell
today.

Westerly upper-level flow will continue through the day Sunday,
allowing another mid-level impulse to sweep through the region
during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday. Chances of rain
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will result from this wave.
Otherwise, increasing cloud cover through the afternoon, with
highs in the middle to upper 70s. Drier conditions return for
Sunday night as a large area of high pressure builds into the
region across the Plains states.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Dry and warm conditions are expected for much of the extended as a
ridge builds to the west and sets up northwest flow over the
Northland. A large dome of high pressure will be in place over the
Plains states to start the week. There will be disturbances riding
the edge of the high through midweek, but they look to be weak and
not bring much in terms of rainfall. Flow turns more quasi-zonal for
the latter half of the week as the surface high shifts into the
Ohio Valley. A stronger and more organized system will then move
through for Friday with chances for showers and storms.
Temperatures will be in the 70s on Monday before warming into the
80s for the rest of the week. A slight cool down into the 70s
will be seen for Saturday in the wake of a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Showers will end at HYR in the next few hours, but conditions
should remain VFR with this activity. VFR conditions are then
expected for the remainder of the period with clearing skies
working from west to east this afternoon and tonight. Winds
gusting to near 20 knots are expected this afternoon at INL and
are already being seen upstream. Clouds then start to increase
Sunday morning ahead of the next system. There could be some fog
at HYR Sunday morning, especially with the rain they are seeing
today, but confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

No hazardous conditions are expected over the next 48 hours. Light
southwesterly winds will turn northeasterly tomorrow and remain
light. Waves will be around 2 feet or less through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  74  55  78 /  20  10  10   0
INL  51  75  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  58  77  55  79 /  20  20  20   0
HYR  52  78  53  78 /   0  10  20   0
ASX  58  75  56  80 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH



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