Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 271726
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1126 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 208 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2023

Key Messages:

- A few flurries possible early this morning.

- Warmer conditions Friday and Saturday for most locations.

- Much colder weather returns Sunday through much of the week.

A shortwave is tracking across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
early this morning. A southward extension of the PV is helping to
force some light snow flurries across northwestern MO that will
track across northern MO through sunrise before shifting east of the
later in the morning.

Zonal upper-level flow will spread over the CONUS Friday into
Saturday with southwesterly flow in the lower levels. This
southwesterly lower-level flow will help warm temperatures into the
40s today. Saturday is a little more complex. An area of low
pressure over the Central Plains will begin to deepen and strengthen
a baroclinic zone across northern KS eastward into northern MO.
South of this zone, temperatures will likely climb into the lower
50s. Across northern MO though, temperatures may not make it above
freezing. During the day, as a shortwave approaches from the west,
that baroclinic zone will slide south as a strong cold front with
temperatures falling into the teens by Sunday morning. Temperatures
may warm slightly back into the low 20s by the afternoon but strong
north winds and cold advection will help keep and warmup minimal and
it seems more likely temperatures will be steady in the teens
Sunday afternoon. Regardless, temperatures will be in the teens
Sunday evening with single digit readings likely by Monday morning
across northern MO.

The other aspect of this cold air resurgence is the potential for
light wintry precipitation Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
There may be some light snow or freezing drizzle along and north of
the baroclinic zone. There may also be light rain or drizzle with
the warm advection ahead of the shortwave that may affect southern
portions of the forecast area. But as the cold air spreads south and
deepens, the prevailing precipitation type will become light snow.
Overall, amounts look minor with just a trace/dusting at best in the
KC area and perhaps a couple tenths of an inch in central MO.

The cold air will through much of next week as several potential
reinforcing shots of cold air wipe out any moderation we might see.
It should be noted that there is a large spread temperatures later
next week with 15-20 degrees of variation in just the 25th to 75th
percentiles. So confidence is not great for the later half of next
week given the wide range of possibilities.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the prevailing period. Mid and
high clouds will increase this evening through Saturday morning
with a few flurries possible after 12Z. Winds will generally be
out of the west or northwest early in the period becoming light
and variable overnight before increasing out of the south-
southeast late in the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...PietrychaP


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