Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 160452
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 251 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019

Main focus in the short-term is potential for thunderstorms late
this afternoon into the overnight hours. Departing shortwave trough
over Illinois has temporarily resulted in subsidence in its wake,
noted by lack of cumulus field. The approach of another weak wave
has helped spawn agitated cumulus along and just behind a surface
cold front in far northern Kansas and southern Nebraska into far
northern Missouri. Convection is expected to continue to grow with
time within this zone, and CAMs suggest more expansive development
along the front later this evening as the boundary sags towards the
Interstate 70 corridor. Environment is characterized by weakening
CIN and increasing instability, and with marginally supportive deep
layer shear for organized storms, strong to severe storms will
remain a possibility through the mid-evening hours. The primary
severe weather threats will be large hail early in the storm
evolution, transitioning to periodic damaging wind gusts. A broken
line of storms is expected to approach the KC Metro/Interstate 70
corridor between 10pm and midnight. As convection shifts south of
the Interstate, nocturnal cooling and cold-pool imbalance should aid
in a gradual weakening trend of storm organization and intensity.
Cold front is anticipated to slide south towards the southern
forecast area by midday Sunday. This should keep best thunderstorm
chances Sunday and Monday generally south of Interstate 70. Next
best chance for widespread thunderstorms arrives Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the next upper trough approaches the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019

A line of thunderstorms settled across the Kansas-Missouri state
line terminals this evening, and continues to push south. Do not
expect storms to redevelop tonight. However, the wind will be a
bit light and variable over the next 24 hours as a weak frontal
boundary wallows around in the vicinity.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Cutter



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