Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 180532
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1132 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 245 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2019

A few flurries or perhaps some light snow will remain possible
across the region as stratocu develops along the back side of a
departing stratus deck, and lobes of vorticity continue to sweep
through the region on the south side of the upper low. The best
chance for anything to accumulate will be in far northeast MO
closer to the low, otherwise accumulations are not anticipated
this evening and tonight. Stratocu should gradually scatter out
tonight and allow temperatures to drop into the lower teens along
the MO/KS border, then another swath of midlevel cloud cover will
push into the region by sunrise, keeping temperatures chilly and
limiting melting on Monday.

Timing, track, and precipitation amounts have come into line
pretty well in the GFS, EC, and NAM for the Tuesday system,
bringing a broad region of deformation-band snow through the CWA
beginning Tuesday afternoon/evening. Weak southerly flow/WAA is
expected to develop through central MO as a secondary surface low
splits off and develops its own localized flow pattern, while the
elevated drier air erodes away at cloud ice between the two low
centers, resulting in mixed precipitation on Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Ice accumulations are not expected to exceed
a few hundredths to perhaps a tenth of an inch in central MO,
since precipitation also becomes light as cloud ice is lost.
Temperatures may also rise above freezing on Wednesday in areas of
weak WAA, possibly mitigating some of the impacts of the freezing
drizzle/rain that occurs in the morning. Farther to the north and
west, several inches of snow accumulation is possible, and may
even need some locally higher amounts should better banding become
evident on the northwest side of the secondary surface low.

Slightly warmer but still below normal temperatures are expected
behind the Tuesday/Wednesday system, then the next chance for
wintry precipitation comes next weekend. Trends for this system
have been further south (re:colder, more wintry) but are still
inconsistent.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2019

Lingering low-level stratus will continue to push southeastward
through the early overnight hours, with VFR conditions expected
thereafter. Models are hinting at MVFR fog development early
Monday morning, though unfavorable northwesterly surface flow
should minimize this potential overall. Will see redeveloping MVFR
stratus Monday afternoon, with a return of VFR conditions
expected Monday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Welsh


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