Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 220554
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1254 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019/

..UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 247 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

The rest of today and much of tomorrow is expected to be dry before
the next system moves into the area late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
For today, high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday, although the mountains and the far north will still be
stuck in the 30s, with 40s further south. Tonight will be another
chilly night with lows in the 20s across much of the area.

As the surface high pressure over the eastern US begins to slide
east today and tonight towards the coast, a wedge will build in
across northeastern Georgia and remain in place for Tuesday. For
much of the area, chances for rain will start to increase late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. More importantly, as moisture spreads
over the wedge there is some potential to see a wintry mix in
portions of north and northeast Georgia. These areas could see a mix
of rain and freezing rain, especially in the higher elevations and
other portions of northeast Georgia in the vicinity of the wedge.
There are still quite a few differences in the models as far as
temperatures, duration, and location for the freezing rain, but the
best time frame looks to be in the 00z to 12Z time frame Wednesday
morning. The most favorable location looks to be mainly across
northeast Georgia, especially in the higher elevations. Current
totals for freezing rain are light, less than a tenth of an inch,
and temperatures should continue to rise past daybreak. All frozen
precipitation should transition to all liquid by late morning.

Reaves

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Extended forecast period continues to show a decidedly cool trend as
the large scale pattern keeps the eastern half of the country
predominately under the influence of long wave troughing. There
continues to be significant differences in the details however
between the primary medium-range models, and noticeable run-to-run
inconsistency within each individual model. We will likely see a few
chances for some wintry precipitation through the period, beginning
Thursday on the back side of the exiting system. This is really the
main transition into the more consistently cool period and a lot of
the potential for some change-over will be how quickly the
precipitation exits vs how soon the colder air spills in. Next
chance appears to be over the weekend, however, details remain
tenuous as the model solutions continue to show quite a bit of
divergence concerning the evolution of the finer-scale details
through the latter half of the period.

Over-all, current extended forecast grids cover this potential and
uncertainty quite well so little change made with this cycle. Please
see the previous Long Term Forecast Discussion below.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

Just some BKN high clouds to start out and VFR should be the rule
through the early morning hours. Thereafter, moisture from the
south will move into the terminals allowing for SCT clouds to
develop, transitioning to a BKN VFR deck by after noon from SW to
NE. With moisture further increasing through the overnight period,
will see MVFR developing around 00Z and IFR by 05Z along with the
introduction of some -RA to the terminals. Winds will be on the
increase again today with low end gusts in store for ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
Medium on -RA timing.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          45  35  60  43 /  10  50  60  90
Atlanta         45  39  60  38 /  10  50  70  90
Blairsville     40  32  51  35 /  10  60  80 100
Cartersville    45  38  57  35 /  10  50  80 100
Columbus        52  47  65  43 /  10  40  70  90
Gainesville     42  34  54  39 /  10  50  80 100
Macon           51  44  67  47 /  10  40  50  90
Rome            46  40  57  34 /  10  60  80 100
Peachtree City  47  41  62  40 /  10  50  70  90
Vidalia         53  47  70  54 /  10  40  40  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Deese



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