Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 200033
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
833 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021



.UPDATE...

Near term trends look on track with only minor adjustments per
recent obs. Should be just some increased cirrus tonight ahead of
weak upper wave approaching from the west. Previous discussion
follows...

00z Aviation update below.

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021/

..Afternoon AFD for April 19...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Fire Danger Statement out today for portions of central and
eastern GA where RHs are going to drop this afternoon into the
lower to mid 20s. Dry air is noted aloft well within range of
mixing heights today which will help us mix out some of the little
remaining atmospheric moisture we have. Little previous rains has
created some dry fuels, so take care if doing any burning of any
remaining winter debris in these areas and check with local
authorities to ensure that burning is permitted. See the the
/SPSFFC/ product for specific counties. Otherwise, beautiful day
across the area with only a few fair weather cumulus across north
GA. Temps have already bounced into the 60s and 70s and winds are
from the northwest between 5-10 mph with a few higher gusts as
some of the dry air aloft mixes down.

500 mb shortwave that has ejected from the 4 corners region into TX
today will move across the area quickly tonight into tomorrow.
Baroclinic frontal boundary is well into the Gulf of Mexico and
across the FL peninsula, so any expected moisture return looks to
remain south of the area, with only some high cloud cover
expected tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Have taken out all
mention of even slight PoPs in the forecast area with this package
as models continue to trend drier. The good news about this cloud
cover tomorrow is that it may prevent us from heating and mixing
out moisture quite as much as today, so at this time it does not
look like a fire danger statement will be needed, though this will
need to be reevaluated in the overnight package, as RHs will
still be low. Winds will flip to the south, but should be weaker
than today. Upper level system moves quickly by the area and
clears out by tomorrow night ahead of larger trough with cold
front progged to move into the area Wednesday, where the long term
takes over.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Quiet and dry will be the main stories of the long term forecast
with the CWA starting out between two frontal systems and weak
high pressure over the area. As mentioned, not too much change
through the week aside from trough aloft ejecting a dry cold front
across the area on Wednesday. PoPs won`t be much concern,
however, with our already dry fuels in combination with higher
winds and low RH values, fire danger will need to be monitored.
After the frontal passage, expect low temps to become unseasonable
cold, near 9-12 degrees below average for this time of year. With
green up already occurring, will need to monitor the potential
for frost/freeze products for Wednesday night and Thursday night,
especially across portions of North GA.

Still slight inconsistencies in regards to spatial coverage and
timing, but overall model guidance is coming into better agreement
that the next chance for precip could come next weekend as a surface
low develops over the Oklahoma handle and pushes eastward. Current
QPF values through the weekend range between 1.5-2.5", with the axis
of heaviest values along the I-85 corridor.

Morgan

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions thru period. Some increased cirrus overnight then
alto deck for during day Tuesday and possible FEW/SCT cu near 5
kft for afternoon with weak upper disturbance. Winds initially 5-7
kts out of NW then light VRB overnight with NE shift for KATL
after 08z. Swinging SE near 5 kts after 14z and SW shift 5-8 kts
after 17z.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High on all elements.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          49  76  52  68 /   0   5   5   0
Atlanta         50  75  52  64 /   0   5   5   0
Blairsville     42  70  44  55 /   0   5  10   0
Cartersville    45  75  47  61 /   0   5   0   0
Columbus        52  78  53  72 /   5   5   5   0
Gainesville     48  74  52  62 /   0   5   5   0
Macon           49  78  51  75 /   5   5   5   0
Rome            45  77  46  60 /   0   5   5   0
Peachtree City  48  76  50  66 /   5   5   5   0
Vidalia         55  79  56  80 /   5  10  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk/Baker
LONG TERM....Morgan
AVIATION...Baker


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