Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 221859
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
259 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019


...Afternoon Update...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Expecting quiet weather through the short term as the upper ridge
builds across the southeast. North and central GA will be dry with a
warming trend through Tuesday night. Tonight will be another cool
night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s...warming into the 80s
Tuesday.

Dew points have been ranging a bit lower than guidance...but so far
this afternoon only isolated areas of 25 percent relative humidity
have been noted. Winds become more southwesterly tomorrow and
there should be a gradual increase in dew points...but this will
continue to be monitored.

41


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

The long term begins with surface ridging across the forecast area,
but a stout positive-tilted upper-level trough over the Southern
Plains and Ozarks Plateau. With ample Gulf moisture to tap into,
this trough will feed a low-pressure system across the southeast
CONUS. There will also be a weaker shortwave upper-level trough
across the Great Lakes region during the same time frame with a
stronger surface low-pressure in the Mid-Atlantic, and as these
two systems merge there is some question about the exact location
of a weaker surface low in the Southeast. This then calls into
question the how much and where the strongest areas of
precipitation will develop given questions about the dynamic
forcing. What we do know is that over the last 24 hours models
have shifted towards the GFS solution, and bring a frontal system
through the forecast area by Friday morning. Latest runs have
shifted most of the precip with this system further south but that
remains to be seen. Instability is also expected to be limited
and wind profiles look muddy, so while some thunderstorms will be
possible, no severe weather is expected at this time. By
Saturday, most of the precip will have exited the area outside of
a few very isolated showers as a surface ridge builds into the
area behind the front. By Sunday another frontal system will
attempt to push into the region before becoming stationary. Most
models keep the front from coming all the way into GA but for now
a slight chance of showers will be in place for N GA.

Thiem

&&


.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR forecast for this cycle with no issues. Northwest winds 8 to
10kts
this afternoon becoming light southwest overnight.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
High on all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          52  84  59  83 /   0   0   0   5
Atlanta         55  82  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
Blairsville     48  78  53  77 /   0   0   5   5
Cartersville    52  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   5
Columbus        55  84  60  83 /   0   5   5   0
Gainesville     53  82  59  80 /   0   0   0   5
Macon           52  84  59  84 /   0   0   5   0
Rome            51  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   5
Peachtree City  52  84  58  82 /   0   0   5   5
Vidalia         55  86  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...41


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