Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 260002
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
702 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

A fairly humid environment has led to the development of several
areas of thunderstorms this afternoon. The first of which is
moving westward out of east Texas. The current expectation is that
those thunderstorms will dissipate as they move eastward given the
loss of daytime heating. There is a slim chance, however, that a
shower or storm may attempt to come within the vicinity of KDAL.
If that is the case, the forecast will be amended to reflect the
possibility.

Additionally, vertical development in the cumulus field across
Central Texas will likely lead to a few lightning strikes at/near
Waco. All the thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish as we
progress through the evening and daytime heating decreases.

The surface wind field will continue to be southerly through the
entirety of this TAF cycle. A slight southeasterly deviation will
be possible along with slightly higher gusts if an outflow
boundary manages to push through the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex
TAF sites.

With the ridge of high pressure to our east, southerly winds
across North and Central Texas will lead to better moisture return
around sunrise Wednesday. For Waco, there is a low probability
that MVFR CIGs will impact the airport. Given the low probability,
have left the MVFR deck out of the forecast.

More daytime thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon,
but given low coverage and the lack of confidence in precipitation
location, no explicit mention of showers and/or storms is in any
of the North/Central Texas TAFs.


Hernandez

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019/
/Tonight/

No significant weather concerns for tonight with most areas
remaining rain free. Any isolated storms that form this afternoon
and evening (mainly south and east of the metroplex) are expected
to die off rapidly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Overnight and into Wednesday morning, weak upper level ridging is
expected to build into Texas leading to continued mostly quiet
weather conditions.

Today has been a rather pleasant weather day for north Texas for
late June. Quiet weather with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
and temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dew points in
the upper 60s to low 70s are observed nearly area wide this
afternoon. The majority of north and north-central Texas has
remain unscathed from any rain or thunderstorms. A few very
isolated storms in northeast Texas are trying to sneak into the
extreme eastern portions of our CWA east of I-45 and south of
I-20. Also, isolated storms in east and central Texas are nibbling
around the edges of the extreme southern portions of our CWA.
This isolated shower and thunderstorm threat will continue for
central into northeast Texas through the early evening hours.
Showers and thunderstorms are not expected in the metroplex
tonight.

Hoeth

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019/
/Wednesday through Tuesday/

An elongated upper ridge will park itself between the Baja
Peninsula and the Central Plains through the weekend, keeping
more typical summer weather in place across North and Central
Texas. There will be some opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms, but these will be generally diurnally driven and
confined to the eastern and southeastern zones. Probably the best
chance for precipitation will be on the weekend when a weak
easterly wave moves out of the Gulf. Again, the east and southeast
zones will be the most likely to see any precipitation. The good
news is, outside of the potential for some brief downburst winds
when these storms collapse, the severe threat will be low due to
the weakly sheared environment.

The upper ridge is progged to weaken a bit early next week with
the main axis shifting east of the region. This subtle pattern
shift will not change the weather much but may result in a few
more afternoon showers and storms.

Temperatures through early next week will be seasonably hot with
highs generally in the lower and middle 90s and lows from the
upper 60s to the mid 70s. Dewpoints should mix out into the 60s
each afternoon, keeping afternoon heat index values generally
below 100.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  89  74  92  74 /  10  10   0   0   0
Waco                72  89  72  91  72 /  20  20   0   5   0
Paris               70  87  70  88  71 /  10  20   5   5   0
Denton              72  89  72  92  72 /  10  10   0   0   0
McKinney            72  88  72  90  73 /  10  10   0   0   0
Dallas              74  90  74  92  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
Terrell             73  89  72  90  73 /  10  20   0   5   0
Corsicana           71  87  71  89  71 /  20  20   0   5   0
Temple              70  88  70  90  70 /  20  20   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       71  89  70  91  70 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

08


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