Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 302117
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
317 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 139 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/
/This Afternoon through Wednesday/

Our winter storm is unfolding this afternoon with areas of
freezing rain and thunderstorms with heavy sleet ongoing across
parts of North Texas. The activity this afternoon is tied to a
weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft and strong 900-800 mb
frontogenesis across the northwest half of the CWA. Observed and
forecast soundings indicate that around 400 J/kg of instability is
available to parcels atop the frontal inversion. With strong
ascent, this is supporting thunderstorms across a good portion of
the region. Heavy sleet has been reported in many areas and this
trend will continue through the afternoon. The band of ascent will
make steady progress north and east by evening and we should see a
gradual shift eastward to the precipitation. Temperatures will
remain in the mid/upper 20s which means that heavy freezing rain
and sleet will quickly turn to ice on area bridges and overpasses.
Untreated surface roads may also become icy in a short period of
time. As the precipitation shifts east and diminishes in intensity
this evening, we`ll likely see a little lull in overall activity,
but this should be short lived as we remain within a broad area of
ascent through the overnight hours. Light freezing rain should
develop again after midnight and spread northward through the
morning hours. With little change in the atmospheric profile
expected, pockets of convection will again be possible during the
day Tuesday, although the axis of heaviest precipitation may shift
a bit to the southeast along the 900-800 mb front. Widespread
freezing rain/sleet is expected again Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Total ice accumulations still look like they`ll be around 1/4" for
most areas (sleet is excluded from ice accums - it`s counted as
snow) although some pockets of heavier ice accumulations will be
possible through early Wednesday. Sleet accumulations could
approach 1" in the heaviest bursts, however most of this has been
around 1/4-1/2" before melting some.

We`ll be extending the Winter Storm Warning through midday
Wednesday with this issuance.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Beyond Wednesday/

Rain is expected to continue late Wednesday into early Thursday as
our slow moving upper low finally ejects eastward bringing a drier
northwest flow into the Southern Plains. We`ll have to continue to
monitor temperatures late Wednesday as they`ll still be around
freezing across the western half of the CWA. This could result in
some additional light freezing rain. Otherwise, rain should taper
off from west to east on Thursday with drier conditions expected
for next weekend. Temperatures will finally modify some as well by
the end of the week with highs in the 50s on Friday and near 60 on
Saturday. No significant weather is expected Friday through
Sunday.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1141 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/
/18Z TAFs/

Light freezing drizzle and pockets of light freezing rain have
developed across North and Central Texas with low MVFR and IFR
cigs still socked in across the area. This will continue
throughout the afternoon, with another round of freezing rain
arriving from the west sometime between 20-23Z. Occasional bursts
of sleet will be possible with this round of precipitation until
it exits the region early this evening.

Patchy light freezing rain or freezing drizzle may stick around
tonight and might eventually need to be added to the TAF.
However, given its patchy nature, it was excluded for now.

Another round of freezing rain is expected to arrive tomorrow
morning. The current TAF advertises a 14Z arrival; however, it
could arrive as early as 11-12Z. Freezing rain and occasional
sleet are expected to persist for much of the day tomorrow. There
could be occasional breaks in precipitation across D10; however,
confidence in when these might occur is very low at this time.

Barnes

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    29  30  29  37  33 /  40 100  80  90  90
Waco                30  32  29  37  34 /  40 100  90  90  90
Paris               28  32  29  37  34 /  50  90  70  80  90
Denton              27  30  28  36  30 /  30 100  70  90  90
McKinney            27  29  28  37  32 /  30 100  70  90  90
Dallas              29  31  29  37  34 /  40 100  80  90  90
Terrell             29  32  29  38  34 /  40 100  80  90  90
Corsicana           29  32  29  40  36 /  50  90  90  90 100
Temple              30  32  29  37  33 /  40  80  90  90  90
Mineral Wells       26  30  27  34  29 /  40  80  70  90  90

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$


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