Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 181506

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1006 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Current forecast is in good shape and only made some minor changes
to remove the mention of showers/storms in the southeast for this
afternoon. Mid level ridging will be centered just to our north
although an upper tropospheric trough is located across South
Texas. This will help keep a fairly deep mid and upper level
easterly flow in place across North Texas. Despite this, moisture
remains rather shallow and any convection should be very isolated
(<10% coverage). It will be hot today with highs topping out in
the low to mid 90s areawide.



.AVIATION... /Issued 631 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018/
/12Z TAFs/
Concerns--None. VFR/south flow.

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period as a
strong upper-level ridge remains in place. Light SSWly winds will
gradually back towards the S during the afternoon
hours...increasing slightly to 5-10 KT. A few SHRA/TSRA will be
possible later this afternoon with minor impacts possible to Cedar
Creek arrivals...but convection should remain away from the D10



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 332 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

An upper-level ridge remains in place across North and Central
Texas this morning. At the surface, a plume of rich Gulf moisture
extends through the Southern Plains towards a stationary front
stretched across the Corn Belt and into the Great Lakes Region.
This rich moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s)
combined with daytime heating during the afternoon may allow a few
showers and thunderstorms to develop, but the strong upper-level
ridge should keep coverage limited. The highest chances for rain
will be during the afternoon across the eastern third to half of
our forecast area near the moisture and instability axis. Like we
saw on Monday, the greatest coverage will be during the late
afternoon to early evening hours, with convection diminishing
during the evening hours as daytime heating is lost. Severe
weather is not expected, nor is heavy rainfall.

Outside of any showers and thunderstorms, look for another day of
above average temperatures with highs generally running in the
low to mid 90s. While these temperatures are warm for late
September, the records of 100F at both DFW and Waco are quite
safe. The day should start off mostly sunny to sunny, with fair
weather cumulus developing through the day as the boundary layer
heats. Winds will be from the south to southwest at 5-10 MPH.
Going into Tuesday Night, look for another warm night (low
temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s) with minimal rain
chances and clear to mostly clear skies.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 332 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018/
/Wednesday through the Middle of Next Week/

A more progressive weather pattern is expected over the next
several days, starting with the upper ridge shifting east as an
upper level trough translates the Four Corners region. The upper
trough and associated lee-side surface low will strengthen the
surface pressure gradient across the Southern Plains, leading to
increasing southerly winds across North and Central Texas. Wind
speeds of 10-15 MPH will be common both Wednesday and Thursday as
a result. The eastward displacement of the ridge and presence of
south winds will keep temperatures a few degrees below today`s
readings, but still above normal for this time of year. Onshore
flow will allow seabreeze showers and isolated storms to possibly
reach south and east counties, but most locations will remain free
of precipitation through Thursday.

While the aforementioned shortwave dampens over the Central
Plains, a southern stream disturbance will lift northeast across
Northern Mexico and West Texas late Thursday into Friday, then
across Central and North Texas late Friday through Saturday.
Precipitation chances will increase across the southwest counties
Thursday night, then across all of the region Friday as large-
scale ascent increases ahead of the upper level feature. After a
few days of drying (now through Thursday), we will get a nice
northward surge of Gulf moisture ahead of this system. Another
variable added to the mix is a weak cold front which is progged
to reach somewhere between the Texas/Oklahoma border and the I-20
corridor late Friday and meander near the Red River both Saturday
and Sunday.

The result will be fairly good rain chances across the area
Friday through the weekend. Modest instability and the lack of
significant shear will mitigate the sever threat, though a few
strong storms with gusty winds and frequent lightning will be
possible. There could also be a locally heavy rain threat,
particularly in the vicinity of the surface front where moisture
convergence along the boundary may enhance convective development
and rain rates. A widespread flood threat is not expected at this
time, but after receiving above-normal rainfall across much of
the area thus far this month, the possibility of flooding will be
something to keep an eye on.

Rain chances will decrease Monday as the upper level system
both weakens and moves east of the area. During this time, a much
stronger and larger scale upper trough will drop southeast across
the Pacific Northwest. Models diverge on the evolution of this
system beyond Monday, with the ECMWF indicating that the trough
will swing fairly quickly east across the Plains, while the GFS is
slower, deeper and sharper with the trough. Both models result in
a good cold front as we approach the end of the month, but the
GFS solution would be the stronger and more convectively active
solution. Grids indicate fairly broad-brushed "chance" POPs across
the region during the day 8 period for now until we can get a
more convergent solution. Either way, pleasant temperatures are at
least looking possible prior to the arrival of October.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  77  94  76  91 /   0   0   5   5  10
Waco                94  74  94  73  90 /   5   5   5   5  20
Paris               93  75  95  75  91 /   5  10  20   5  10
Denton              94  74  94  74  90 /   0   0   5   5   5
McKinney            94  75  95  75  91 /   0   0  10   5  10
Dallas              95  78  95  77  91 /   0   0  10   5  10
Terrell             94  75  95  75  91 /   5  10  10  10  10
Corsicana           94  75  94  74  90 /  10  10  20  10  20
Temple              93  73  93  73  89 /  10  10   5   5  20
Mineral Wells       93  72  93  72  90 /   0   0   5   5  10



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