Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 182352
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
652 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019


.AVIATION...

Concerns: A few showers may producing gusty winds between 00-02Z
Friday. Breezy northerly winds return Friday afternoon through
around sunset.

The slow moving trough across the Southern Plains will have one
more opportunity to bring a few showers into the North Texas
region. Although an isolated lightning strike will be possible,
probability is too low to include a mention of VCTS, especially as
the main forcing for ascent and colder temperatures aloft are
expected to remain across Oklahoma. Although they appear to be
benign showers, there will be a threat of gusty winds as vertical
momentum transfer helps draw higher winds aloft to the surface.

Can`t rule out a few gusts of up to 40-45 mph within the North
Texas TAF sites between 02-04Z. After 04Z, this shower activity
will likely be south of the region and dissipate before reaching
Central Texas. Sustained winds are expected to remain breezy
through the night, generally between 10-13 kts. Daytime heating
Friday afternoon will once again lead to another gusty day as
vertical momentum transfer increases. This will lead to gusts up
to around 30 kts at all TAF sites through around sunset. Winds
will diminish after sunset, with VFR continuing.



08

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 350 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/
/Through Tonight/

A band of postfrontal showers and thunderstorms are exiting
Central and East Texas as an upper trough axis finally pushes east
of the region, bringing an end to our latest rain event. Gusty
north winds are in place across the entire region, but these
speeds will subside as the surface layer decouples after sunset.
However, vigorous northwest flow will continue above the nocturnal
boundary layer, and some of the mid clouds upstream will arrive
tonight. Although in the downglide sector of the upper trough,
there have been some sprinkles of light rain beneath these clouds
in the Central Plains. However, our dry sub-cloud layer should
gobble up any adventurous hydrometeors, and the overnight forecast
will be free of precipitation.

As the upper system digs into the Lower Mississippi Valley, some
wrap-around moisture may bring some late night/early morning low
clouds to portions of Northeast and East Texas. These clouds would
arrive late and do little to stem the temperature fall tonight. A
steady breeze at the surface will maintain cold advection but
also prevent surface temperatures from reaching their full
radiational cooling potential. Nonetheless, readings will still
dip below normal, and many locations will begin Good Friday in the
40s.

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 350 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/
/Friday through Wednesday/

North Texas will be on the back side of a deep upper trough at the
start of the day Friday although there will still be an area of
mid level ascent spreading across our eastern counties during the
morning hours. While moisture is limited, this ascent shouldn`t
result in anything more than a few scattered clouds. These should
clear the area by midday with sunny skies expected through the
afternoon. Surface high pressure will center itself over the
region by afternoon allowing surface winds to diminish. Highs on
Friday will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Quiet weather will prevail through the weekend with the surface
high sliding off to the east and southerly flow making a return.
With shortwave ridging overspreading the Southern Plains,
temperatures will respond upward on Saturday and we should see
highs climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

With the persistent southerly flow, moisture will slowly return to
the region by Easter Sunday. The upper ridging will also begin to
flatten out a bit as a weak disturbance spreads east through the
Plains. The forcing associated with this disturbance will
primarily remain well to our north so despite having better
moisture and instability, a healthy capping inversion should be
sufficient to keep the Easter holiday dry. It will be a warm day
and more humid with highs in the 80s, approaching 90 across our
western counties.

The weather pattern becomes a little more active at the beginning
of next week as a deeper trough digs over the southwest U.S. With
ample moisture in place and an active dryline, thunderstorms
should be common across much of West Texas. A dryline and an
approaching cold front on Monday night may be close enough for
some scattered storms mainly in our northwest counties. Better
rain/storm chances overspread North and Central Texas on Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  68  49  79  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
Waco                49  71  47  78  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               48  65  45  74  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
Denton              48  67  46  79  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
McKinney            48  67  45  77  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dallas              52  69  49  79  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
Terrell             49  67  45  78  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           50  70  46  75  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              49  72  48  79  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       48  70  45  82  58 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

08


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