Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 302340
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
440 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 216 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

The ongoing storm continues to bring widespread snow to the
northern valleys up into the northern mountains as local
observations and webcams can attest. The cold front remains across
those same northern valleys and continues to slowly drop
southward. Along and just ahead of the front, banded precip has
set up as originally forecast bringing some squally type snow from
about Montrose northward. Snow squall parameters continue to show
squalls possible through this evening as some minor CAPE and
upper level support and midlevel instability will aid in their
development. Something we`ll certainly be keeping an eye on.

As far as current highlights are concerned, no changes in their
regard. Advisories and warnings for the northern valleys and
mountains are still expected to expire at 5PM. Hi-res guidance has
performed well today with regards to the location and timing of
the banded precip setting up and by early evening, this same
guidance is showing a large band of precip setting up over the
Roan/Tavaputs and I-70 corridor with little else to the north. The
current advisories for the Grand Valley and I-70 corridor up
through Vail Pass remain in effect through midnight, again, for
this line of banded precip. The HRRR is a bit less gung-ho than
previous runs while the NAMNEST is full steam ahead. The front
will start losing its characteristics as it reaches the San Juans
and with upper level support starting to wane, 2 to 4 inches (more
for Wolf Creek Pass) looks about right. By Tuesday morning, all
highlights will have ended with some light snow continuing for the
San Juans with maybe an inch or two of new snow accumulation
possible.

Plenty of clearing overnight, especially up north, and strong cold
air advection will bring some bitterly cold temperatures to our
northern valleys. Craig, Hayden, sorry folks, another round of
lows in the -15 to -20F range. Rangely and Dinosaur can expect
lows in the -10 to -15F range while the Uinta Basin will see temps
around -10F. As previously mentioned, light winds will preclude
the issuance of any Wind Chill Warnings but with temperatures this
cold, any slight puff of wind will cause apparent temperatures to
drop considerably. Bundle up, A LOT, if going out tonight or early
tomorrow morning.

For tomorrow then, look for partly to mostly sunny skies (more sun
up north) with more clouds than sun for the San Juans and southern
valleys. Generally light winds will be the rule as height rises
commence indicating high pressure building in. High temps will be
anywhere from to 10 to 20 degrees below seasonal norms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 216 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

Cold dry conditions will envelope the West Slope Wednesday morning.
Widespread subzero temperatures are expected across the region, with
lower elevations hovering around 10 degrees. Fortunately, this  cold
outbreak is short-lived. Subsidence under high pressure and the
return of higher sun angles will initiate a warming trend that
should continue into the weekend. Precipitation chances should
remain near nil for Wednesday through Friday too. The first vague
hints at precipitation return in model outputs on Friday evening. A
weak shortwave pushing across the Pacific Northwest looks like it
could produce a few snow showers over the Continental Divide. It
looks like the southward extent of precipitation will probably be
around Vail Pass. Available moisture and confidence are in short
supply on this event, but it`s worth mentioning for Friday travelers
who plan to take advantage of mountain snow sports, etc. Another
Pacific Northwest wave sits in the batter`s circle Saturday and
deterministic models are putting its arrival on the West Slope
sometime Sunday night. Moisture supplies look more substantial with
this event. However, these northwest waves are quick to spend all
their moisture and arrive on our doorstep worse for wear.

Model disparities are pretty wide at this juncture in the long term
outlook. Rather than labor on with pie in the sky snow hopes, it`s
probably best to stick with a general trend for active weather on
Monday and watch the forecast for a troublesome morning commute to
start the week. If guidance holds true, another high amplitude ridge
over the West Coast looks to set up as this wave digs into the
mountain west. Based on recent regimes, I would look out for another
busy northwesterly flow pattern bringing active weather through the
northern mountains early next week. In the meantime, anyone sick of
shoveling snow will find solace in the second half of the work
week`s forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 440 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

A nearly stationary cold front remains draped from west to east
across central portions of eastern Utah and western Colorado this
afternoon. Along the front, bands of snow with varying intensity
continue to impact terminals along I-70, especially KRIL and KASE.
This may also impact KGJT and KMTJ over the course of the
evening. Under any bursts of heavier snow, IFR/LIFR ceilings and
visibility are possible. Gusty winds up to 30 kts are possible
too. The front will slowly sag southward overnight and take the
snow bands with it. Thus, snow will likely affect some of the
southern sites as well. Conditions are expected to slowly improve
during the day on Tuesday with most sites returning back to VFR by
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     COZ001>003-005.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ004-
     013.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
     COZ006>008.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for COZ009-010-
     012-017.

UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...MDM


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