Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 271015
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
315 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023

Today-tonight...high cloud cover will slowly increase and thicken
today under northwest flow aloft. High temperatures are forecast to
be in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Tonight, not much going on. We`ll
be watching for the leading edge of an Arctic airmass to approach
the KS/NE border around sunrise Saturday morning. Given the
saturated boundary layer along the front, cant rule out some patchy
fog per a few model visibility forecasts. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the middle teens to lower 20s.

Saturday-Saturday night...the Arctic cold front quickly moves south
through the area through early afternoon and remains over the area
through the night. Along the front, fog/freezing fog will be
possible. Moisture in the 850-500mb layer moves into the northwest
1/2 or so of the forecast area by mid to late afternoon, supporting
slight chance and low chance pops for light snow. North winds of 20
to 30 mph are expected with some higher gusts. High temperatures are
currently forecast to range from the lower to middle 20s along the
CO/KS border to the lower 30s from Kit Carson to Tribune and Leoti.
For the overnight hours, light snow and/or flurries will continue.
Low temperatures fall to a few degrees either side of zero with wind
chill readings around 15 degrees below zero.

Sunday-Sunday night...the main weather story will continue to be the
cold. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the 8F to
15F range with overnight lows ranging from -1F to -8F. The coldest
wind chill readings Sunday night will be in the -17F to -26F range.
Wind chill advisories and wind chill warnings will be needed.
Chances for light snow and flurries will continue with accumulations
generally up to 1 inch.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1155 PM MST Thu Jan 26 2023

Mon-Wed: A deep, expansive cyclonic gyre -- presently centered
invof Southampton Island (northern Hudson Bay) in central/eastern
Canada -- will remain anchored in place through the middle of next
week (Wed). Long range guidance suggests that robust shortwave
energy rotating around the cyclonic gyre will periodically (every
~48 hrs) track eastward through the Northern Plains and Upper
Great Lakes.. along the southern periphery of the gyre. While the
aforementioned [periodic] shortwave energy is anticipated to
remain well north and northeast of the Tri-State area (far enough
that precipitation generally appears unlikely).. synoptic
subsidence /surface pressure rises/ in their wake will
[periodically] drive Arctic high pressure southward into the
Central Plains -- allowing little time for airmass
modification/recovery prior to the next reinforcing shot of cold
air. Even when airmass recovery can occur.. it will likely be
muted/dampened by lingering snowpack in place over the region.
With the above in mind.. expect well below normal temperatures and
predominately dry conditions.

Thu-Fri: Long range guidance indicates that northern stream
shortwave energy -- presently digging southward along the northern
coast of British Columbia (on the eastern periphery of an upper
level ridge extending northward into the Gulf of Alaska) -- will
continue to march southward along the Pacific Coast this weekend,
cutting off invof southern California early next week (Mon-Tue).
Thereafter (mid-late week), guidance suggests that this feature
will gradually progress eastward through the Desert Southwest and
Southern Plains. Sensible weather conditions in the Tri-State area
will heavily depend upon key aspects of both [1] the evolution of
the large cyclonic gyre in Canada and [2] the aforementioned
shortwave energy progged to cut-off invof the southern CA coast
early next week.

-------------------------------------------------------------
Bottom Line:
-------------------------------------------------------------

Well below normal temperatures and predominately dry conditions
expected early next week (Mon-Tue). Forecast confidence decreases
considerably (as synoptic pattern complexity increases) by mid-late
week (Wed-Fri). At this time, below normal temperatures appear
likely to persist through the remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 315 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. West-
northwest winds gusting to 25kts at taf issuance will fall below
12kts by 15z. From 15z-04z, winds slowly back to the south at
speeds up to 10kts. After 05z, winds slowly veer back to the west
at speeds up to 10kts.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A west
wind gusting to 30kts at taf issuance will continue through about
14z before falling below 12kts from 15z-19z. From 20z-08z, winds
will be generally from the south to southwest at speeds up to
8kts. After 09z, winds veer to the northwest up to 11kts. There is
low to medium confidence in sub VFR cigs (and perhaps fog or
mist) arriving at the terminal from the north between 11z-12z
Saturday morning as an Arctic cold front moves through.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Saturday to 9 AM
     MST /10 AM CST/ Sunday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-
     042.

CO...Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 9 AM MST Sunday for
     COZ090>092.

NE...Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Saturday to 9 AM
     MST /10 AM CST/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...99


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