Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 182310

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
510 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2019

The near term concern is the possibility of light showers and
thunderstorms across mainly the eastern sections of the forecast
area through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening.

Beyond this evening, short term forecast concerns include the
overnight lows tonight that are approaching freezing and the
increasing fire weather concerns Friday and into the beginning of
the weekend.

Light rain showers and a few thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon into the early evening due a short wave trough aloft
moving through the highly amplified northerly flow providing some
lift along with an increase in mid-level moisture and weak
instabilities moving across the central high plains as colder air
moves in aloft. Showers should diminish rapidly as diurnal heating
is lost following sunset.  Little to no rainfall accumulation is
expected with these showers as most of the rainfall is evaporating
before it reaches the ground. Gusty northwest winds will continue
through early Thursday evening, and may be enhanced somewhat by the
evaporating showers with gusts up to 40mph.

The upper pattern continues to shift eastward Thursday night and
into Friday morning with the upper ridge over the western U.S.
moving over the Rockies and High Plains regions Friday and Friday
night. A cooler area of surface high pressure moves into the
forecast area tonight and Friday.  This will bring overnight low
temperatures down to near freezing, which could have adverse effects
on sensitive vegetation.

Following the passage of the surface high pressure area on Friday, a
weak lee trough begins to develop along the front range, which will
produce light southwesterly to westerly near surface flow across the
region. This will tend to increase temperatures and dry out the
region, producing minimum relative humidity values Friday afternoon
in the 20-25 percent range.  While this will produce an increase in
the fire weather concerns mainly across far eastern Colorado,
critical fire weather conditions will not be met since winds will be
generally light. More significant fire weather conditions are
anticipated on Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2019

At the start of the extended period the models are showing an upper-
level ridge over the Central High Plains. This ridge will influence
the local area with dry and warm conditions on Saturday; afternoon
highs are expected to reach into the middle 80s.

Saturday night, the ridge will begin to flatten and slowly move out
of the High Plains. This will allow an upper-level shortwave and its
associated surface front to move in from the southwest. This system
will be a slow moving due to the blocking effects form the ridge
mentioned above. It will also produce cooler temperatures (middle
50s to middle 60s) and a few rain showers through Tuesday for the
Tri-State region.

For the rest of the extended, Wednesday and Thursday, the superblend
shows dry conditions and above normal temps for the local area;
highs reaching the middle 70s on Thursday.  However, will have to
wait and see if this plays out as the models are not in good
agreement during this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 505 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Vfr conditions are expected at both sites through the period. For
Kgld, there will be some isolated showers near the site for the
first hour and then will be dry the rest of the period. Also the
north winds will start out near 21 knots with gusts to near 29
knots and then will quickly decrease to near 11 knots by 01z. The
winds wills shift to the northwest at 6-7 knots by 05z. The winds
will stay at the same speed as they shift to the west around 09z.

For Kmck, north winds will start out near 20 knots with gusts to
around 26 knots for the first hour. At 01z those winds remain
north but will have decreased to near 14 knots. At 04z the winds
will have shifted to the northwest at 6 knots. At 07z the winds
will remain the same speed as they shift toward the west.




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