Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 240730
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

-Humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms today

-A few strong storms possible this afternoon/evening

-Dry and Less humid on Tuesday, followed by another chance of
 storms on Tuesday night

-Very warm and summer-like mid to late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019


Shortwave currently lifting northeast through Lwr MI producing
scattered showers early this morning, especially north and east
of GRR. Even a hint of an MCV in radar data east of GRR. This
wave lifts out around daybreak, although a few isolated showers
may linger in it`s wake this morning as sfc warm front continues
lifting north through the area.

Coverage of showers and tstms should increase around mid
afternoon with the approach of the sfc cold front and negative
tilt upr shortwave. However it`s questionable if we`ll see much
sfc based instability with extensive cloud cover, and the
lakeshore areas north of Holland should be quite stable with SSW
winds off the cold water.

Ensemble mean SBCapes are progged to be roughly 750-1000 J/KG
late this afternoon which may be just enough the generate a few
stronger storms since deep layer shear ramps up to near 40 kts as
upr trough approaches later in the day. Limiting factor however
is poor mid level lapse rates, which look better over WI under
the upr trough.

It`s very possible we`ll be spared from svr wx and locally heavy
rain today, with events occuring to our southeast over Ohio (sfc
cold front) and to the west over WI (upr trough). Will keep the
Flood Watch in effect for now but may be able to cancel early.

We dry out tonight and Tuesday however a period of convection
looks possible Tuesday night as the elevated mixed layer leans in
from the west and a weak boundary drops in. The mid to late week
period currently looks quite warm/summer-like with our next risk
of storms coming in on Friday. Other scattered, mainly diurnal,
storms may occur next weekend inland from Lk MI.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 154 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

MVFR becoming more numerous overnight as air mass continues to
moisten up and scattered showers continue. Areas of IFR also a
good bet toward daybreak as warm front lifts north through the
area. LIFR could develop along the lakeshore (including the MKG
terminal) after daybreak as winds turn onshore and push in marine
stratus/fog.

Cigs lifting to VFR levels this afternoon, but scattered tstms
expected from mid afternoon through early evening ahead of an
approaching cold front. Gusty winds may accompany these storms.
Convection diminishing this evening with fropa.

Southeast sfc winds around 10 kts this morning becoming southwest
at 10 to 20 kts this afternoon into the evening.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

We may be dealing with some dense marine fog today as high dew pts
interact with the cold Lk MI waters and winds turn onshore. Wind
crank up tonight into Tuesday out of the southwest, and drier air
arrives, which should mix out the fog. However those higher winds
will likely require a Small Craft Advisory and potential Beach
Hazard Statement.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Very high river levels for this time of year continue following
Thursday`s heavy rain in the Kalamazoo and Grand basins. Urban and
small stream flooding is also possible with any heavy downpours from
storms today, especially in the Kalamazoo area where flooding
already occurred Thursday and the ground is still nearly saturated.
Fortunately any storms that develop today should not stay in one
spot for long, but we will maintain the flood watch given the area`s
vulnerability.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch through this evening for MIZ064>067-071>074.

LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Meade
DISCUSSION...Meade
AVIATION...Meade
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...Meade


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