Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 302345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
645 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023


.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 256 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

No big storms through the weekend with dry but cold weather and
only some light lake effect snow showers.

Arctic front has come through through this morning with northwest
flow lake effect snow showers expected to last through Tuesday
but these will be limited by inversion heights under 5000 feet.
Expect accumulations today and Tuesday to be around an inch or
two. We will have to watch for any clearing inland tonight as
fresh snowpack and arctic air will allow temps to plummet below
zero anywhere clearing occurs for a few hours.

Flow goes westerly tomorrow night with forecast soundings showing
inversion maintaining a thin stratus deck most of the night along
with light snow showers or flurries. Some clearing is finally
possible by Wednesday and Wednesday night, mostly across the
southern and eastern areas as flow goes southwest ahead of
shortwave trough.

That trough deepens and drives an arctic front through Thursday
with another round of light snow along the front and lake effect
snow showers behind it. Inversion heights are similar to today,
generally around 4000 feet, which will limit accumulations again.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 631 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

The snow showers are slowly weakening...but could persist for
a few more hours especially closer to the lakeshore. Any remaining
IFR from these snow showers should be brief. Meanwhile the clouds
were thinning out over interior parts of MI. KLAN and KJXN should
go scattered this evening as the winds diminish which will limit
how far inland the lake moisture gets. We could see the winds
becoming light for KLAN and KJXN as the cold air builds over the
interior. How far west the clearing/scattering out line gets is
unclear. However KGRR and KAZO will be close to the sct/bkn line.
Any remaining MVFR clouds overnight should be situated close to
the lakeshore...which is why we kept KMKG at MVFR through the


Issued at 256 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

No changes to the SCA. Tuesday will see a decrease in winds and
waves under weak surface ridging but the lull may be short as
winds and waves increase again Tuesday night.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849.



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