Text Products for AFD Issued by GSP

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 271803
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC
103 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will persist over the region today through
Saturday. Moisture will return Sunday through Sunday night ahead of
a cold front approaching from the northwest. The front will stall in
the vicinity of the area on Tuesday, with another brief round of
precipitation expected. Deeper moisture will likely return ahead of
a low pressure system crossing the Deep South Wednesday through
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sunny skies, with some mid-level clouds over the far western NC
mountains, are dominant across the region currently. We are
sitting beneath a strong upper level jet, which is favoring
subsidence across the area. This is leading to very dry surface
high pressure building into the FA this afternoon and evening.
PWs are under 0.3" across the FA, with upstream obs at FFC
showing 0.22" PWs at the 12z sounding. This, plus the subsidence
across the area, will lead to continued sunny skies through the
afternoon hours. Some gusty winds are possible this afternoon
and evening as a weak surface trough on the lee side of the
Appalachians creates some localized gusts over the northeastern
FA. Highs this afternoon will likely be in the upper 40s and low
50s most places, with cooler temps observed in the mountains.

Tonight, high pressure will build near the region and set up
just south of the area. This should allow for winds to drop off
overnight, with winds generally remaining in the 3-5kt range
overnight. Expecting cold temperatures to develop as a result,
with many seeing lows in the mid and upper 20s. This is
especially possible given how low dewpoints are this afternoon -
many in the mid teens to low 20s. This should allow for pretty
good radiational cooling conditions tonight and a cool
temperature forecast tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will provide the region with dry and
seasonably cool weather on Saturday. A weak weather disturbance and
frontal boundary will progress into the Southern Applachians from
late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Temperatures are
expected to be well above freezing, therefore expect periods of rain
showers. Rainfall accumulations are expected to be less than one
third of an inch. High pressure builds into the Southeast U.S. later
on Monday for a return to dry weather. Downsloping winds will allow
temperatures to warm into the 60s during the afternoon hours.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A fast moving zonal flow aloft should lead to an active weather
pattern through the remainder of next week. A weak disturbance in
the flow aloft brings a chance of showers on Tuesday.

A classic overrunning precipitation pattern sets up across the
South Central and Southeastern U.S. Wednesday through Friday. A
stronger upper trough digs into the Southern Plains which pumps
deep Gulf moisture over Canadian surface high pressure. The
models differ regarding the specifics of where the overrunning
boundary sets up and the timing of the upper trough`s
progression. The bottom line is a higher than normal probability
of wet weather during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Dry high pressure will be settling into the
Carolinas overnight tonight, providing little moisture and
decreasing winds. One note is that there have been some stronger
wind gusts, likely associated with a weak surface pressure
trough, just to the north of CLT. Decided to add in gusts in
for the next few hours in anticipation of the west-northwesterly
gusts making it to the CLT terminal. Outside of this, some gusty
winds are expected at most sites this afternoon, but these
should relax through the evening hours. No precip is expected
through the period, with only high clouds making it into most
sites by the end of the period.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will settle over the region into
Saturday. A storm system will bring restrictive clouds and precip
across the area Sunday into Monday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
