Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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FXPQ50 PGUM 270921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
721 PM ChST Fri Jan 27 2023

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy, with gentle to moderate winds. Latest satellite
imagery shows isolated showers in the region. Buoys are showing the
northwest swell has started to decline.


There is not a lot happening weather wise for the Marianas. A dry
season regime has set up and looks to remain in place for the
forecast period. According to the latest model data, Sunday night
looks like the be best chance for showers due to a trough coming
through. Wind will be the main concern though. Sustained winds will
mostly be between gentle to strong with gusts up to near gale. The
High Surf advisory and High rip current risk will remain due to the
winds and the shift in swell. These conditions look to shift from
north, west and east reefs to just east reef near the beginning of
the week.


Altimetry shows seas at 9 to 11 feet. Tanapag buoy shows 8 to 10
feet and Ritidian buoy shows 10 to 12 feet. The northwest swell is
abating and will continue to decrease through the forecast period.
The trade-wind swell looks to overtake the northwest swell tomorrow
then become the dominate swell for the remainder of the period. Seas
are expected to drop below advisory criteria by Saturday evening.


.Eastern Micronesia...
Pretty dry conditions for Pohnpei and Kosrae tonight with a weak
trade wind trough producing scattered showers for Majuro. Late
tonight to early Saturday, Majuro is expected to see a tradewind
surge, which will bring winds and scattered showers, then clear out
by Saturday afternoon, did extend the period of scattered showers
through Saturday. Majuro, is expected to see windy conditions
Saturday and Saturday night with the trade surge. For Pohnpei and
Kosrae, the forecast is pretty much the same as the previous,
showers peaking Saturday night and Sunday at 40 POPs from the
tradewind surge, and breezy winds as well. Tuesday looks like
another tradewind surge with a slight increase in showers and winds.

Winds will decrease from time to time, but marine models show at
least 10 feet all though the weekend until Wednesday or Thursday,
with a peak of around 12 to 15 feet Sunday across all three islands.
Kept the small craft advisory timeline until Monday for now, by the
weekend we should have a better idea of when seas drop below 10 ft.


.Western Micronesia...
An unsettled weather pattern will persist over Palau and Yap through
Saturday. The combination of the near equatorial trough and a trade-
wind trough currently near Chuuk will lead to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms during the day Saturday in Yap, then Saturday
night in Palau. By Sunday, conditions at both Palau and Yap will
improve with chances for isolated to scattered showers in the
forecast due to subtle trade-wind troughs that pass through the area
in the trade wind flow. Chuuk remains situated north of the majority
of shower activity associated with passing troughs and the near-
equatorial trough. Models continue to show that Sunday will provide
for the best chance for scattered showers with a passing trade-wind

Little change to the marine forecast across for western Micronesia.
A look at buoys across the Marianas show combined seas of 8 to 10
feet. The 3pm surf observation at Yap shows 8 to 10 feet. Combined
seas at Yap and Palau are expected to peak late tonight into Saturday
morning then gradually decrease through the rest of the weekend. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Yap until 6am ChST
Saturday and 6pm Chst Saturday at Chuuk. A High Surf Advisory remains
in effect at Palau and Yap till 6am ChST Saturday.


GU...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for GUZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM ChST Saturday for GUZ001.

MP...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for MPZ001>003.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM ChST Saturday for MPZ001>003.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM ChST Saturday for MPZ003.

Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM ChST Saturday for PMZ151>154.



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