Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 271530
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1030 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings fair weather today with temperatures near
normal. A cold front crosses on Saturday bringing some snow
showers mainly to the mountains. A series of weak disturbances
will cross the area late this weekend through the middle of next
week bringing some snow to the north while southern and coastal
areas will see more in the way of rain or no precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM Update...No significant changes to going forecast with
only minor tweaks to T/Tds and sky cover.

6:55AM Update... Mostly just a minor update to temperatures and
snow shower activity across the mountains based on trends so far
this morning. Temperature stayed a few degrees warmer than
expected overnight with more widespread cloud cover. With this
warmer start, decided to nudge high temps up by a degree or so
for today. Otherwise no notable changes, with the forecast
remaining on track.

Previous...

Upslope snow showers gradually decrease in coverage
today as the flow becomes more blocked and remains on the north
side of the mountains. A weak mid level trough passes through
during the day today. A stray flurry can`t be ruled out with
this outside of the mountains, but chances don`t look high
enough to put precip wording in the forecast for this.
Otherwise, a few more clouds are expected with the passage of
this trough, with a weak ridge of high pressure bringing
clearing conditions for later in the day. The mix of sun and
clouds, as well as cooler air arriving later in the day makes
for seasonable temperatures for the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Mainly clear skies in the evening allow for temperatures to
fall into the teens and single digits across interior areas,
with low 20s expected along the coastline. Clouds filter in
later in the night as a weak disturbance approaches from the
west.

This weak disturbance will bring with it a slight increase in
moisture and some minor instability. This will likely be enough
to bring some scattered snow shower activity to northern areas
tomorrow. Additionally, parts of the MidCoast may see some ocean
enhanced snow shower activity tomorrow morning as the flow
becomes more southwesterly and the vort max provides some
increased instability. Some isolated snow showers are possible
elsewhere, with chances steadily decreasing farther south.

Temperatures moderate with southwesterly flow tomorrow
associated with the disturbance, warming highs to near 40
degrees along the coastline. Temps remain closer to freezing
across northern areas where the clouds and snow showers will be
more prevalent.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level low pressure will remain nearly stationary across
central Canada through most of the forecast period. Relatively
weak short wave troughs move across our area in the relatively
flat flow regime.

The first short wave trough moves across the region on Sunday,
likely allowing for accumulating light snow in the mountains and
foothills. However, there is some uncertainty in low track. A
farther north track, near the international border, would allow
most accumulating snow to fall over the border in Canada. A
farther south track with the potential for weak redevelopment
would allow for light accumulating snow a bit farther south.
Took a blend at this time which allows for a 1-4" snowfall in
the mountains and portions of the foothills where locations in
the southern portion of the CWA sees no precip or a period of
light rain or snow showers in gusty SW flow.

The next short wave trough moves through Monday night into early
Tuesday perhaps offering a period of light snow or snow showers.

The various deterministics and ensembles have backed off
significantly on a potential storm around Wednesday as the
southern stream remains detached from the northern stream.
However, it`s possible that it could come back in later runs.
Will go with chance PoPs for now.

Late week looks like we could experience a dump of cold air from
the north, probably colder than what we`ve seen so far this
season. We`ll watch this but oftentimes the airmass ends up
being a little more moderate than advertised at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Periods of MVFR ceilings continue at HIE through
mid-morning with near MVFR ceilings expected afterwards through
the remainder of the day. Ceilings scatter out for a time
tonight, but then more MVFR ceilings with a few snow showers are
expected tomorrow. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail through
tomorrow, but a few snow showers are possible at LEB, HIE, AUG,
and RKD tomorrow. Southwesterly wind gusts increase to around
20kts tomorrow as well.

Long Term...A return to VFR is possible Saturday night before
another system arrives on Sunday bring another round of rain and
snow with ceilings and visibilities potentially falling into
the IFR range, mainly in the mountains. The coastal plain and
southern NH may escape with a brief period of MVFR cigs Sunday.
VFR conditions return Sunday night and Monday before we see a
few additional chances for light snow toward the middle of next
week. However, confidence is low on timing of any restrictions
or impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gales have subsided but SCA conditions remain with
slowly diminishing seas. Seas are expected to lower below 5ft
by this evening, with fair conditions expected through midnight
as a weak ridge of high pressure moves across the waters.
Southwesterly flow then begins to increase ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary, with SCA conditions likely by
daybreak tomorrow. SCA conditions continue tomorrow, with a few
southwesterly gusts to near gale force possible across the
eastern waters tomorrow afternoon

Long Term...Any SCA conditions will quickly subside Saturday
evening. However, they will redevelop Sunday afternoon and
evening as southwesterly winds increase in advance of a cold
front. Thereafter, early week conditions should feature
conditions below SCA levels.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Clair/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Ekster


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