Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 150318
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1018 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Fairly quiet night in store across the region. Some patchy fog
will be possible once again during the early morning hours but
should quickly dissipate after sunrise. A handful of showers
could develop over the waters and along the coast overnight.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/

AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Current VFR conditions should hold through 06-09Z tonight. Radar
did show a few showers between KSGR and KCLL but those have since
dissipated. Southerly wind should decrease after sunset and night
time inversion setting up.

After 09Z there is a chance MVFR ceilings could develop for KCLL
over the KUTS. Possible to get some MVFR ceilings for the Houston
terminals but not until after sunrise closer to 14Z to 16Z time
frame. Convective allowing models show some SHRA/TSRA forming in
the afternoon but coverage looks isolated at this point. For now
will hold off on any mention of thunderstorms and given new
guidance a look before adding a mention.

Overpeck

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 315 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/...

DISCUSSION...
In the short term rain chances remain slim and mainly focused over
the Coastal Waters and coastal counties as isolated showers
through 9 am Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances increase as cap
erodes but may still be strong enough over the area to minimize
coverage Wednesday. Most of the area is not going to see
rain...very isolated in nature. Temperatures tonight through
Monday still on the warm side by a few degrees during the day and
3 to 4 overnight.

Upper ridging over the NW Gulf which is helping to suppress
convection (and helped to pump the Saharan dust into the area)
will be weakening and spreading out across the southern US. This
should lead to a slight increase in rain chances this weekend and
infusion of `cleaner` air Thursday and moreso on Friday along with
higher PW nearing 1.9-2.0" range. Perhaps as the upper trough dips
down into Texas Fri/early Saturday some additional boost in
coverage is possible but differences in timing and strength abound
and so have leaned a little drier for now with the expected storm
track further north. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this
weekend then increasing Monday into Tuesday. Heat index readings
should peak in the afternoon hours in the 102-107 range with more
sites seeing the higher values Sunday and Monday.

Tropics remain quiet and dusty.

Elevated rip current risk continues through early this evening.

MARINE...
Not a lot of changes from ongoing forecast with generally light to
moderate onshore winds prevailing the next several days. We should
see slightly increased wind speeds overnight...and with it scatter-
ed showers developing over the coastal waters around sunrise. This
coverage is expected to decrease during the afternoon. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  96  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              78  94  77  95  77 /  10  30   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)            84  91  82  88  82 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11


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