Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 031139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020


Could have a brief period of MVFR ceilings/visibilities early this
morning before everyone goes VFR. Some showers are already starting
to develop, and expect increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day. Everything should quiet down this evening.
S to to SE winds should stay around 5 to 10 knots. 42


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday]...

Current satellite imagery shows increasing clouds across the area
early this morning. Only a shower or two are showing up on radar
so far off the coast. Temperatures at 3 AM range from the upper 60s
to lower 70s inland to around 80 at the coast. Looking for a chance
of showers and thunderstorms across the area today as precipitable
water values remain on the high side. High resolution models are
not showing a whole lot of coverage, so a good portion of the area
will likely stay dry today. High temperatures in the upper 80s to
lowers 90s can be expected. Any activity that does develop should
dissipate by around sunset and not much development is expected
overnight. With precipitable water values lower tomorrow, only
isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated, and high
temperatures should end up a degree or two warmer than what the
area will experience today.  42

LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Tuesday]...

Mostly clear skies and rising heights will lead to continued warming
Friday and Saturday with daytime highs in the mid 90s (and heat
index values near triple digits) and overnight lows in the low to
mid 70s. Then, the forecast for Sunday and beyond will be heavily
dependent on what happens with Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Cristobal has continued to meander through the southern Bay of
Campeche and is expected to make landfall into southern Mexico
within the next 24 hours. It is expected to weaken while it is over
Mexico, but by how much will be dependent on how long it stays over
land. It is then expected to move northward towards the central Gulf
on Friday into Saturday. The latest guidance continues to move
Cristobal towards the central Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday
morning, but confidence on the exact track and intensity remains
low. For now, continue to monitor the forecast through the coming
days as details come into better focus on if SE Texas will
experience any impacts from Cristobal.



Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds can be
expected through the end of the week as Tropical Storm Cristobal
remains in/around the western areas of the Yucatan peninsula. The
latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Cristobal
moving northward beginning on Friday and continuing through Sunday
with an eventual landfall near the central Louisiana coast. If this
forecast track holds, expect to see increasing northeast to north
winds, building seas, increasing rip currents and eventually some
bands of showers and thunderstorms across the upper Texas coastal
waters over the weekend and into the start of next week. Cristobal`s
track and intensity forecast could change, and mariners should
continue to closely monitor the progress of this system.  42


College Station (CLL)      91  73  91  72  93 /  30  10  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)              90  73  91  75  93 /  30  20  20   0  20
Galveston (GLS)            87  78  85  78  87 /  30  10  20   0  10



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