Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 170859
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
159 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2019


.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are
possible over the Sierra today through Tuesday. A warming trend
will occur the next couple of days with temperatures climbing to
around 10 degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday. A cooling
trend will then occur late in the week with temperatures falling
back to near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Residual debris clouds from Sunday`s thunderstorms
remain over the area, giving the full moon and its partner for the
night, Jupiter an eerie glow. Water vapor satellite imagery shows
these clouds well and also depicts a weak counter clockwise spin
over Inyo County showing the location of weak low pressure aloft.

This area of weak low pressure will be one ingredient of the main
weather feature today, Sierra thunderstorms. Forecast models for
the past several days have been forecasting today will be the day
for the most thunderstorm activity in the Sierra. No surprise
tonight as short range high resolution models continue to kick off
convection after noon and then peak the thunderstorm threat
between 2 and 4 pm. For today the distribution of storms looks to
be targeting areas from Southern Tulare County northward to
Yosemite. A few storms could form over the Kern County mountains
north of Highway 58 as well. With an easterly flow aloft, anvils
and cloud debris from Sierra thunderstorms will push west across
the foothills and into the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon and
evening however, intact thunderstorms will not likely survive the
trip down into the more stable air of the lower slopes.

As for temperatures today, a warming trend will begin with highs
running 4-7 degrees warmer than Sunday. With models moving today`s
weak low eastward and building a ridge into the region from the
west, the warming trend will continue Tuesday and Wednesday.
Enough residual moisture over the Sierra crest will allow for a
couple of isolated thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoon.

Temperatures peak on Wednesday with maximum heights from the ridge
occurring. Some cooling ensues on Thursday through next weekend as
a strong for mid June low pressure system moves into the Pacific
Northwest and dives into the Great Basin and Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Sierra
crest after 19z and through 03Z Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail over the central CA interior during the
next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public...Dudley
aviation....DS

weather.gov/hanford



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