Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 221141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
641 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

For 12Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

High pressure continues to control the weather across the Tennessee
Valley and Deep South early this morning. Strong subsidence from the
ridge is promoting a clear sky once again. However, unlike yesterday
morning, higher boundary layer moisture has kept temperatures in the
40s to lower 50s. A couple areas of localized fog have developed
along Wheeler Lake, but the rest of the area remains clear. It`s
possible there may be a brief window for some additional development
around daybreak, but think this will mainly be confined to the lakes.
After sunrise, it will quickly dissipate, setting the stage for a
sunny and beautiful late April day across the region as subsidence
from the ridge will keep cloud cover at bay. Given the ample sunshine
and southerly flow, have adjusted temperatures up a few degrees
given that MOS underperformed yesterday. Think readings in the upper
70s to lower 80s seem probable across most locations by this
afternoon -- around 3 degrees or so warmer than yesterday.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

An upper-level ridge will amplify over the region tonight into
Tuesday, continuing to promote benign weather and dry conditions. The
only cloud cover of note may be from disturbance well to the
southwest of the area. With good southerly flow and abundant
sunshine, a similar day is expected on Tuesday, with highs perhaps a
degree or so warmer than Monday. This area of high pressure will
begin to gradually shift to the east of the area by Wednesday, as a
low pressure system begins to develop across Texas. This will allow
Gulf moisture to slowly creep into the area, but also help to
maintain the warm air mass. A denser Cu field will likely develop by
the afternoon, but subsidence from the ridge will still serve to
keep these clouds shallow and the forecast dry. Additionally, a weak
front to the north of the area may develop some convection in which
some blow-off cirrus may move in later in the day. Still, a mostly
to partly sunny day is expected and highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s will be common once again.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

As high pressure gets shoved to the east, an upper-level low pressure
system will continue to deepen Wednesday night as it moves into the
Lower Mississippi Valley by Thursday morning. Weak isentropic lift
will likely help to kick off some isolated convection in the morning
and potentially more scattered convection in the afternoon. Enough
heating will occur (along with some deeper moisture) to develop some
modest instability to warrant at least an isolated mention of
thunder. As the upper-low tracks into the Mississippi/Louisiana delta
region Thursday night, lift increases across the area and more
widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
possible. It should be noted, however, that the best combination of
shear and instability (along with forcing along the front) will
likely be along the Northern Gulf Coast region. For this reason,
this scenario would suggest North Alabama may get cut-off from a
more favorable environment for strong/severe thunderstorms.

Some of the newer model guidance suggests that the system may be a
little more progressive, and thus we should see a tapering off of
convection by Friday morning as the main forcing shifts south of the
area, and the upper low weakens into an open wave across Georgia
into the Carolinas. From here high pressure looks to build back into
the region this weekend, promoting fair and pleasant weather, with
plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s once


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period with
light winds and a mostly clear sky.





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