Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 271710

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1110 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

(Rest of Today)
Issued at 840 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Had a chilly start to the morning with temps in the 20s and frost
on the windshield. Currently temps are in the 30s which is ~10
degrees colder than this time yesterday, and skies are clearer
with an abundance of sunshine out there. With high pressure
dominating our weather today, clouds will stay limited and daytime
highs will climb into the 50s as southwesterly winds gust up to
20kts. Adjusted hourly T/Td, otherwise the forecast for today is
on track.


(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 113 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Clear skies and light winds will make for another chilly night.
Overnight lows drop down into the lower 30s. Enjoy Saturday as
much as possible as it appears it may be the last dry day of this
forecast package. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid to upper
50s. At the start of this weekend, the upper level trough breaks
down as weak ridging develops across the Deep South. Along the
ridge, a shortwave lifts a warm front north and east across the
ArkLaTex into the Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys. Rain
chances begin to increase late Saturday night into early Sunday
morning. Sunday looks to be a washout as rain is expected all day
with storm total amounts near 1 inch. Rain ends briefly by Monday
morning, but it will be short lived as another system riding along
the stalled warm front is expected to move into Alabama late


(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 113 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

An active and wet pattern is expected to persist through the long
term forecast period. Model guidance diverges significantly with
timing of systems next week however, they do all agree that a
stalled boundary will be located somewhere near the local forecast
area. As a result, several shortwaves riding along this boundary
will bring rain back into the forecast. Main concern this far out
is the potential for locally heavy rain that may result in
flooding as well as rises along area rivers. Current storm total
rainfall forecast is showing 1-3 inches, but this will likely
change as we get closer to the event.


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

VFR conditions are expected at KHSV and KMSL through the TAF
period. Southwesterly winds will remain breezy through the
afternoon, sustained around 10kt and gusting up towards 20kts
before slacking after sunset.




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