Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 302324
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
524 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 318 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK:

* Chance for patchy light flurries through tonight, with light
  snow/flurries possible far southern Kansas Tuesday.

* Warming trend late week and persisting into early next week.

Major winter weather impacts the next few days will remain south to
southeast of the forecast area (i.e. across Oklahoma, Texas,
Arkansas, southern Missouri), as an active southern stream jet
interacts with a deep frontal zone, amidst shallow modified Arctic
air.

We could see a few lingering light snow flurries through this
evening across the forecast area due to weak lift above the shallow
cold air. Absolutely no accumulation or adverse travel impacts will
occur. For Tuesday, there is a chance for patchy light snow/flurries
across far southern Kansas, from about mid-morning through mid-
afternoon, as a zone of mid-level lift races east-northeast ahead of
an upper trough approaching from the west. Suspect low-levels will
remain too dry, and lift too meager and transient for any
accumulations, with greater chances for winter weather impacts
further south across Oklahoma.

Arctic air will be on the retreat the next few days, as the airmass
modifies in response to rising mid-level heights/thickness across
Mid-America, with daytime highs reaching the 40s to near 50 degrees
by Thursday. However, not before another cold night tonight in the
single digits and teens, with readings Tuesday remaining in the 20s.
5-10 mph winds will support wind chills zero to 10 below tonight
through early Tuesday, coldest over central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Temperatures Friday are somewhat uncertain, as a deepening eastern
CONUS upper trough drives another Arctic blast south across the
eastern half of the country. Thinking this will occur east of the
forecast area, although a slight westward shift would support a cool
down back into the 30s for highs Friday.

Confidence is high that temperatures will climb well above average
for the weekend into early next week, as heights/thickness rise
across the region. Highs in the 50s to low 60s and lows in the 20s-
30s look probable. By early to mid next week...deterministic and
ensemble consensus supports a digging western CONUS trough
eventually ejecting out onto the Plains. This would result in
increasing precipitation chances across the region early-mid next
week. However, uncertainty abounds this far out, especially with
individual deterministic model runs. Stay tuned as details become
clearer the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 521 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Low cigs in MVFR category will linger over central Kansas through
the late evening hours. Meanwhile the rest of the region will see
low clouds above 4000ft then scatter out. Winds will remain out of
the north with cloud heights raising to the mid levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    11  27  16  39 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson       8  27  15  40 /  10   0   0   0
Newton           8  26  15  39 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        10  26  15  38 /  10  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   13  27  17  39 /  10  20   0   0
Russell          1  28   8  39 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend       1  27   9  40 /  10   0   0   0
Salina           6  29  13  41 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson        6  27  12  40 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     15  27  18  38 /  10  20   0   0
Chanute         12  26  17  39 /  10  10   0   0
Iola            11  26  17  38 /  10  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    13  26  17  38 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ


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