Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 031227
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
727 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Early this morning, a surface frontal boundary currently
stretches southwestward from a surface Low in western Iowa,
through southeast Nebraska, and into southwest Kansas. Along and
just behind this boundary, showers (and a few storms earlier in
the night) have formed across south central Nebraska into
southwest Kansas. This activity is expected to wane over the next
several hours, giving way to dry and mostly sunny conditions
across central, south central, and southeast Kansas for the rest
of the morning. Temperatures today will continue to run well above
normal, and will likely be our warmest day of the year so far
with thickness values supportive of highs reaching well into the
90s for most locations.

By this afternoon and evening, there is a remote possibility for a
couple of showers or storms in southeast Kansas as capping erodes
within an environment of ample CAPE, but without a real focus for
convection confidence is low in this occurring. The better chances
for afternoon/evening convection should remain north and east of
the forecast area.

Things become more interesting later in the evening and overnight,
however, when models continue to indicate that a complex of storms
which should form on the High Plains of far northwest Kansas track
eastward into the CWA sometime in the late evening before midnight.
There still remains quite a bit of disagreement with how far south
this convective complex will make it, but latest trends have been
towards a more southerly solution as was suspected in previous
forecast issuances. As the complex grows upscale and interacts
with increasing moisture availability and potentially a very
significant uptick in the low-level jet, strong, straight line
damaging winds could become a primary concern within bowing
segments across central and eastern Kansas during the overnight
and early morning hours. Localized flooding within heavy rain is
also a concern, but the progressive nature of the system should
prevent any higher-end or widespread flash flooding concerns.

By daybreak, storms should be coming to an end within the forecast
area as they exit southeast Kansas. In the wake of the overnight
MCS, things should dry out once again as weaker ridging takes over
once again across the central U.S. Temperatures should be able to
recover to well above normal values once again, ranging from the
upper 80s to the upper 90s across the area. Precip chances for
Thursday remain somewhat more questionable, depending on how well
the atmosphere can recover from the previous nights convection. Have
trended things a bit drier with this forecast issuance, but a few
showers/storms will be possible late in the evening and overnight
period once again Thursday night as another upper level shortwave
moves across the Central Plains.

Friday through the weekend, ridging will once again take over and
the above normal temperatures will continue, reaching into the 90s
each day. Think much of this time frame should remain dry, though
the GFS does try to initiate a few storms throughout the period.
Think this is probably over-done given a lack of focus, so prefer to
lean towards the NAM/ECMWF this weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Heading into early next week, there remains quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding precipitation chances throughout the period.
Currently, Tropical Storm Cristobal is located near the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. According to the latest track from the
National Hurricane Center in Miami, this system is expected to
linger for several days in the southern Gulf of Mexico before
finally tracking northward this weekend and approaching the
Louisiana coast by Sunday evening. This current track follows a
consensus blend of the GFS and ECMWF, but the track becomes much
more uncertain beyond 72 hours due to complex terrain/land
interactions along the coast of Mexico this week. With that said,
there is some indication (in the GFS at least) that this system
would continue a northward track after landfall and interact with
an upper trough swinging across the Plains Tuesday-Wednesday of
next week. Should this happen, it could mean that at least some
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain would be possible,
particularly over southeast Kansas. However, the current ECMWF
keeps the tropical system`s remnants well east of the forecast
area. Even in this scenario, however, the trough moving across
the central U.S. would still support some showers/storms on
Tuesday (albeit much fewer in this scenario). Therefore, this will
be something to monitor over the next several days.

Regardless, confidence remains high that above normal temperatures
will continue into at least the first half of next week. Although
perhaps not as warm as the rest of this week and this weekend,
highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s still remain possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 724 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Low confidence forecast. VFR conditions are forecast at all sites
throughout the period, but anticipate MVFR/IFR with thunderstorms.
Surface front in the vicinity of KRSL/KGBD will move little
during the day. Wide range of scenarios as to where/when
thunderstorms will develop. Less inclined to believe storms would
develop early afternoon in eastern KS, given lack of focus. More
likely is for storms to either initiate on the surface front, or
wait until storms roll off High Plains tonight. With richer
moisture in eastern KS, storms are more likely at KCNU/KSLN with
chances decreasing to the southwest. Given the uncertainty of
timing and locations, was conservative with duration and extent of
storms in TAFS. A stray shower/storm is also remotely possible
through about 1500 UTC at KICT/KHUT/KCNU with modest mid level
instability. If more develop they would be short lived and
seemingly random. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    96  71  94  71 /  10  30  10  10
Hutchinson      94  68  94  69 /  10  30  10  10
Newton          93  68  93  70 /  10  30  10  10
ElDorado        92  69  92  70 /  10  40  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   93  70  94  71 /  10  30  10  10
Russell         94  66  96  67 /  10  40  20  20
Great Bend      95  66  96  67 /  10  40  10  10
Salina          94  68  94  69 /  10  40  20  20
McPherson       93  68  94  69 /  10  30  10  10
Coffeyville     89  69  90  70 /  20  60  30  10
Chanute         90  69  89  70 /  20  50  40  10
Iola            90  69  89  70 /  20  60  40  10
Parsons-KPPF    89  69  89  70 /  20  50  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...PJH


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