Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 150822
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
322 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Breezy and unseasonably warm conditions are expected to close out
the weekend and as we head into the upcoming work week. The
strongest winds look to occur on Tuesday, especially central Kansas.
Later in the week, there may be a gradual increase in the chance of
thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures look to continue well into
the week, possibly cooling down some by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Early this morning, an ill-defined stationary front stretched SW to
NE from SE Colorado into Iowa. In response to increasingly SW flow
aloft, this front will lift north today as an amplified upper level
trough begins to be carved out across the WRN US. Just south of the
front, low-level water vapor imagery shows a narrow band of higher
mid-level moisture oriented west to east across central KS. Radar
imagery shows very isolated thunderstorms ongoing within this band
as of this writing and I can`t rule out this potential lingering
until around, or just after, sunrise near/just south of I-70.

As the above-mentioned front lifts north, our entire CWA will be
warm-sectored with 850 temps forecast to be a degree or two higher
than yesterday. Barring any influence from a band of cirrus
overspreading the area, temperatures should reach values slightly
higher than yesterday. While temperatures will be well above climo,
record highs are not expected to be in jeopardy.

South of the warm front, increasing elevated moisture transport will
occur late tonight into Monday morning within a developing 30kt LLJ.
This will occur in tandem with a plume of sub-tropical moisture
getting pulled north into the area ahead of a shortwave lifting
north out of Arizona. Forecast soundings only suggest modest
moisture being realized around 700mb, but with the glancing lift
from the Arizona wave, there may be just enough forcing for
isolated showers/storms from Midnight tonight through mid-morning
Monday (mainly for central KS). Given some uncertainties in the
degree of moistening, we`ll plan to keep the forecast dry for now.
If convection does develop, it is not expected to be severe.

In the wake of that wave, a tightening pressure gradient is expected
east of a lee-side low near the CO/KS border. This will combine with
steep low-level lapse rates/deeper mixing to create breezy
conditions to start the work week. The highest winds look to be
focused on Tuesday thanks to slightly stronger winds aloft. For
now, thinking wind gusts will remain below Wind Advisory criteria
Tuesday due to a lack of stronger winds aloft, but we`ll continue
to re- evaluate this potential. It won`t take much of an increase
in winds aloft to push SFC gusts closer to Advisory criteria.
Given the favorable setup for breezy/windy conditions, wind gusts
were nudged up above blended model guidance to be more in line
with BUFKIT soundings and momentum transfer-suggested gusts. Late
Tuesday night, a surface trough will begin to approach central KS
from the west. This may provide just enough low-level
convergence/forcing for a few thunderstorms, but a lack of better
moisture makes this potential a lower- confidence one for now.

Martin

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Model guidance continues to indicate the deep and amplified upper
level trough over the WRN US will gradually edge east next week. The
upper level ridge over the eastern US is somewhat anomalous for this
time of year and I wouldn`t be surprised if model guidance slows the
eastward movement of the upper trough due to the strength of the
ridge. For now, though, guidance is in decent agreement with
several embedded shortwaves ejecting out of the trough, each one
potentially cutting just a bit further east than the previous one.

With time, this may eventually allow a more substantial push for a
frontal boundary to reach, and potentially move through, our area.
It should be noted, though, that with the upper trough axis hanging
back over the Rockies, there may not be any significant push of
cooler air, even if a front can make it all the way through. What
appears to be more likely is an increased risk of thunderstorms with
time as the upper trough edges east (whenever that eventually
occurs). Initially, shear looks to be weak, with multicell
convection the predominant storm mode. Late in the weak, shear may
increase as a strong, upper level jet tries to round the base of
the trough and shift northeast across the Central Plains. Should
this occur, the threat of strong/severe convection may increase
some. Otherwise, above normal temps look to continue well into
next week, with a gradual cooldown possible if any front can make
it through the area or on any day with a higher coverage of
thunderstorms/cloudcover.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Main aviation concern will be wind shear overnight.

Storms that developed along the front over central KS dissipated
recently with additional activity not expected. Wind shear is
still expected overnight, especially over central KS. By around
2,000ft, southwest winds around 40kts are expected with these
conditions lasting until around sunrise. Confidence is high that
VFR conditions will remain in place through the next 24 hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    93  69  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      94  69  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          91  69  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        89  68  89  70 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   91  69  89  69 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         95  71  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      94  70  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          94  71  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       93  69  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         91  68  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            90  68  90  69 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    91  68  90  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RBL



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