Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221712
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1212 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Currently, a thunderstorm complex continues to progress across
east- central Kansas. This activity is being aided by a strong
low-level jet and a modest pool of elevated instability. Expecting
this activity to continue exiting off to the east early this
morning, with dry weather likely most of the day across the
forecast area as large scale subsidence overspreads the region in
wake of an upper wave progressing northeast. However, cannot rule
out a few isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening
across far southeast Kansas in the vicinity of a slow moving cold
front sagging south across the region. Thinking the RAP has the
best handle on thermodynamic progs, with modest instability,
weakening inhibition, and relatively weak deep layer shear
forecast. Consequently, severe weather appears unlikely, although
the strongest activity could produce pea-dime size hail and gusty
winds.

Given GFS and NAM trends, along with the latest short-range hi-
res guidance suite, trended PoPs lower and further south tonight
through Tuesday across the forecast area. Thinking the ECMWF and
Canadian models are too wet and too far north with the rain
shield. That said, best chances for rain and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will likely be confined to southern Kansas,
generally along/south of a line from Kingman--Wichita--Chanute.
The culprit will be weak shortwave energy skirting the region to
the south, generating weak lift north of the stalled front.

Kleinsasser

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Could see a chance for a few showers/thunderstorms across far
southeast Kansas Wed-Thu, as an upper low progresses across the
Southern Plains. Compared to other global models, the GFS is
furthest north with the precipitation- producing deformation zone,
so will only run with low PoPs for now.

While model agreement surrounding finer synoptic details remains
low, overall model consensus supports periodic thunderstorm
chances across the region Friday night through early to mid next
week, as periodic upper waves and associated frontal zones
interact with an increasingly moist/unstable airmass across Mid-
America. Given the model disparity, only ran with low-modest PoPs
for now. Regardless, the increasing moisture/instability would
suggest increasing strong to severe storm chances whenever these
upper waves and associated frontal zones are able to progress
across the region.

Kleinsasser

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Low clouds in the MVFR range will linger across the region for
much of the afternoon. The low cloud ceilings should gradually
rise for this evening. Northerly winds persist behind the cold
front passage for the next 24hrs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Recent rains along with a green-up well underway should support
relatively low fire weather concerns the next several days.

Kleinsasser

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  50  63  47 /  10  40  40  10
Hutchinson      73  49  64  44 /   0  20  20   0
Newton          72  48  62  45 /   0  20  30  10
ElDorado        75  50  61  46 /  10  30  40  10
Winfield-KWLD   76  51  62  47 /  10  60  60  10
Russell         68  45  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      68  46  66  41 /   0  10  10   0
Salina          71  48  68  43 /   0  10  10   0
McPherson       72  48  65  43 /   0  10  20   0
Coffeyville     77  54  63  50 /  20  60  60  20
Chanute         76  52  62  49 /  20  40  50  20
Iola            75  51  61  48 /  20  40  50  20
Parsons-KPPF    76  53  62  50 /  20  50  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...ADK


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