Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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157
FXUS63 KICT 191132
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
532 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

Water vapor imagery shows strong fast moving shortwave tracking
across southern OK with strong cold front extending from eastern
OK into central TX.

Band of rain/snow, that was the result of frontogenesis around
850mb, has quickly pushed east overnight and has just about
exited southeast KS. Current plan is to extend the wind advisory a
few more hours for se KS as strong gradient winds continue to
translate east. Highs today are still expected to be well below
normal and dropped them a couple degrees from previous forecast.
All areas are not expected to get out of the 20s today with
dangerous wind chills expected this morning over central and
northeast KS.

Surface high is expected to push east Sun into the Mississippi
Valley as lee troughing strengthens. This will get the area
quickly back into some return flow, allowing for seasonal temps.
Northwest flow aloft will flatten out by Mon as our next shortwave
approaches the western CONUS. This will allow for further
modification with 50s not out of the question for southern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

ECMWF and GFS continue to agree well on the shortwave to swing
across the area Mon night into Tue. This feature is expected to
move out into the high Plains by 12z Tue and track across KS and
southern Nebraska Tue. This wave looks to remain progressive and
also maintain a positive tilt. This should limit heavy snowfall
potential with northern KS/Nebraska having the best shot to see
measurable snowfall. In the wake of this feature, below normal
temps will once again overspread the region for the remainder of
the work week. There is some suggestion from the medium range
models in a significant arctic surge taking place for Thu into
Fri across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley with some of this area making it down our way.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

Northwest winds of 25 to 35 with gusts to around 45 will continue
early this morning before diminishing from west to east this
afternoon as surface high pressure builds towards the area.
Morning flurries may drive visibilities down to 3-5 miles at
times across south central and southeast KS as MVFR cigs linger through
14-15Z before increasing subsidence allows VFR to return across
the area from west to east across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    24  13  42  27 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      23  13  43  26 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          21  12  41  26 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        22  12  40  26 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   26  13  42  28 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         23  13  45  25 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      25  14  46  25 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          21  11  39  24 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       22  10  41  25 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     26  12  38  26 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         23  11  35  25 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            22  11  33  24 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    25  11  37  26 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ052-053-067>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for KSZ032-033-
047>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM



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