Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 210509
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1109 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

Warm above normal temperatures will prevail for this period with the
star shining brightly for Wed/Thanksgiving day followed by some
decent rain chances on Friday. On Thanksgiving day, strong south
winds will develop over much of Kansas as surface low pressure
deepens in eastern Colorado and tightens the pressure gradient.
Meanwhile current satellite water vapor imagery shows next weather
system over the eastern Pacific, which will slide eastward across
Kansas for Friday. Temperature profiles will easily be warm enough
to keep precipitation in the form of rain across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

The next weather system of interest will be this upcoming weekend
as it is currently spinning/evolving over western Alaska. We
expect the projected track and timing of this system to experience
changes in the coming days from the long range models. Latest
model trends are indicating a northward shift of the upper level
system, and a slightly faster eastward progression compared to
previous model runs. This trend change would result in lesser snow
amounts for central and south central Kansas, however this system
still has high potential to cause very hazardous winter weather
conditions to occur over the region. The latest timing has rain
changing to snow for Saturday night into Sunday, as much colder
air and very strong north winds spread southward. Once again
weather systems from this origin in western Alaska will have
normal model variability on the track this far out in time, and in
some cases could go back to it`s previous forecast track. A
gradual warming trend could be in store for Kansas on Tuesday into
Wednesday, mainly for the areas with no new snow pack as the
weather system moves eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period
along with southerly surface flow and mostly clear skies.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    32  60  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      31  60  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          32  60  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        32  59  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   32  59  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         28  60  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      28  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          31  59  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       30  60  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     31  59  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         31  58  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            32  58  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    31  58  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...KED


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