Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171747
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy lifting out of the
northern Rockies and about to move out into the northern Plains.
Meanwhile, upper ridging continues to encompass the southern
Rockies into the lower Mississippi Valley.

A few storms developed over the last few hours, mainly over
central and eastern KS. This is in response to some decent warm
advection along a mid level baroclinic zone. Severe storms are not
expected with this activity, with 50 mph winds and brief heavy
rain the main threats.

Shortwave over the northern Plains will continue pushing east and
will allow a weak cold front/trough to work into southwest
Nebraska/nw KS by late this afternoon. At the same time, a weak
upper impulse is expected to lift out of northern NM/CO and move
out into the high Plains by this afternoon. These two features
will combine to allow storms to develop over northwest KS/sw
Nebraska late this afternoon into the early evening hours and
track east tonight. Some of this activity may flirt with our
northwest fringes early this evening but should go through an
overall weakening trend as they approach. Lee troughing will also
deepen for today and Thu which will allow for strong afternoon
southwest winds with 20 to 25 mph sustained speeds common both
days with higher gusts.

The bigger story will remain the first heat wave of the summer.
850mb temps and 1000-850mb partial thicknesses remain supportive
of temps in the 100 to 103 range for areas along and west of I-135
for both today and Thu. Excessive heat looks to continue into Fri
as all models agree on keeping cold front north of the forecast
area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

By Sat morning stronger shortwave energy is expected to be
coming on shore over the Pacific Northwest and will be moving into
the northern Plains by late Sat night. Both ECMWF and GFS keep the
cooler air north of KS for Sat which will keep the dangerous heat
around to start the weekend. However, confidence is increasing in
a strong cold front to push through the area Sun into Sun night.
Along with ushering-in some cooler temps to start the work week,
this front will also bring some decent storm chances for the Sun
night through Mon time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Breezy SSW winds of 15-20 kts can be expected across the area
today. Gusts of 25-35 kts are likely across south central and
central KS and gusts up to 25kts are likely across southeast KS.
Surface winds will diminish and become more southerly this evening
and pick up again near the end of the TAF period.

LLWS possible overnight at all sites as winds at 2,000 ft
approach 40 kts out the southwest.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT   100  77 100  79 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson     101  77 101  79 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          99  77  99  79 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        97  77  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   98  77  98  79 /  10   0   0   0
Russell        103  75 104  78 /  10  20   0   0
Great Bend     103  76 103  78 /  10  10   0   0
Salina         101  78 103  80 /  10  10   0  10
McPherson      100  77 100  79 /  10  10   0   0
Coffeyville     95  76  96  78 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         95  76  96  77 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            95  76  96  77 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    95  76  96  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KMB


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