Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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581
FXUS61 KILN 210755
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
355 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low slowly move east early this morning, with
high pressure moving in behind the low. Dry conditions and
clearing skies will move in through today with dry weather for
today and Monday. Tuesday will bring a return to the possibility
of showers and thunderstorms when a cold front is forecast to
arrive from the northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early part of today`s weather concern will be areas of fog, some
locally dense, in the far western forecast area behind the
clearing. Have added areas of fog to the forecast, and will
include in the HWO product, but held just short of adding dense
fog advisory. Reasoning is, based on Nighttime Microphysics and
sfc obs, there seems to be some time required for the dense fog
to form, and this will be a race against rising sun angles in
the far western forecast area, so current thinking is widespread
dense fog wont have the time to develop. Will continue to
reassess this potential need for the advisory in Indiana and KY
counties west of I-75.

The upper low is showing signs of becoming more compressed as
its making its way through eastern WV/VA with the advancement
of the mid level ridging in the central CONUS, which seems to be
allowing for a slightly quicker clearing of lower clouds
through today. By afternoon, western third of forecast area will
experience partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, though will be
under the front side of the surface high, with southerly flow
and WAA not yet taking hold, so not feeling the full temperature
rebound just yet. As a result, temperature gradient from
mid/upper 50s in the east where clouds will linger, and mid 60s
in the far west with benefits of clearing clouds taking place.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
By 10pm-Midnight, clearing will be through the entire forecast
area, with the center of the surface high just to the southeast
of the forecast area. Very light winds will slowly be backing
around to the southeast ahead of the developing system in the
northern plains, but there is at least some concern for another
night of surface fog development, especially in the eastern half
of the forecast area closer to the center of the surface high,
where there wasn`t the benefit of sun during the day on Sunday.
Overnight lows still a fairly cool mid 40s.

For Monday, advancement of the trough and associated shortwave
over the northern plains will allow for increased clouds in the
far NW forecast area, but also increased SW flow and WAA,
allowing temperatures to hit the mid 70s for most of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Monday night will see a cold front approaching the region from
the west. A few showers might sneak into the west before
daybreak.

Extended models are consistent in pushing the cold front across the
region on Tuesday. While there will be a low chance of showers
Tuesday morning across northern sections of the area, the better
PoPs will be in the afternoon across middle and southern sections as
the diurnal cycle heats up. CAPES will climb to 1-2K J/kg, which
will be enough to support scattered thunder.

The front pushes into Kentucky Tuesday night, allowing northern
sections of the fa to dry out, however there will lingering low PoPs
for southern sections.

Tonight`s model runs are in much better agreement with their
handling of southern stream energy for the middle and end of the
week. A chance of showers will linger in the south on Wednesday. As
a H5 low swings through Texas Wednesday night into Thursday,
isentropic lift will increase, pushing showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms back across the region. The system will work east
of the region Thursday night into Friday and high pressure will
build in for Friday. It will bring dry conditions to the region
for both Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With the upper low slowly pulling into eastern WV and into VA,
back edge of the MVFR/IFR ceilings is now east of an MIE/GEZ
line. IFR ceilings are becoming less common across the area,
with all but KCVG now at lower MVFR. KCMH/KLCK still have
potential for IFR cigs through about 14z. Tricky issue is will
the back edge of the cloud deck get to CVG/LUK in time for the
rising sun angle near/after 12z so as not to result in any
visibility restrictions. For now, the only location where MVFR
visibility is introduced is briefly at KCVG, who received over
2" of rainfall in the past 48 hours.

Slow clearing across the region this afternoon, with MVFR
restrictions gone by 18-19z for all locations. With surface
ridging moving over the area tonight, some concern for MVFR to
possibly even IFR visibilities in the 08-12z timeframe just
after the current TAF forecast for all but KCVG. For now have
introduced MVFR visibility after 08z at KCVG, but there is some
risk of IFR in this timeframe.

OUTLOOK...Possibly MVFR to even IFR visibility restrictions just
before daybreak on Monday, then thunderstorms possible Tuesday
into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...JDR



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