Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 181927
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
327 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and cool dry weather will persist tonight to
early Friday. Later on Friday through Friday night, showers will
develop in increasing moisture ahead of a cold front arriving
from the west. Cool and unsettled weather will continue on
Saturday in the brisk westerly flow behind the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
With the center of high pressure crossing the area, containing
very dry air and light winds, there will be no precip tonight,
and little to no cloud cover. Under these conditions that are
favorable for radiational cooling, freezing to near freezing
temperatures can be expected by 6 am, as suggested by blended
model guidance. Went with a freeze warning over four far
eastern counties where below 33 readings are most likely. Rest
of southern counties where frost freeze program is still active
may not experience temps quite that low, being in weak warm
advection on the back side of the high later tonight. Kept
mention of frost across the rest of the area where frost freeze
program has been terminated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Once Frost/Freeze headlines expire at 10 am, area will have
increasing southerly winds and a gradual increase in clouds
ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. We may even see
a few showers develop in the afternoon, mainly over western
locations. Highs will reach the upper 50s most locations, with
lower 60s possible far south.

Showers are forecast to overspread the area Friday night with
cold frontal passage. Showers will be accompanied by gusty winds
triggered by a 40 knot 850 mb jet. Kept thunder out in an
environment that will contain around 100 J/KG CAPE and cloud
tops around 15 kft. Expect overnight lows in the mid and upper
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak trough at the surface over northern Ohio and Indiana will
couple with shortwave energy at the base of an upper trough on
Saturday to bring a threat of rain showers to the region. The upper
trough axis crosses east in the late day/early evening and
essentially turns off any lingering threat for rain late in the day.

Surface high pressure builds in the midwest and ushers in cooler and
drier air to the Ohio Valley, with Sunday`s highs about 10 deg
cooler than Saturday`s. Temperatures will rebound about 8 degrees on
Monday with generally clear skies and a return to southwest flow.
Tuesday will flirt with 60 degrees but be hampered a little in the
north with cold advection wrapping around a surface high centered
over Wisconsin.

Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 30s most of the period,
with the exception of the upper 30s to around 40 expected Monday
night. Numerical guidance is much warmer with lower 40s, but it has
to be overdoing the southwest flow, which will not be strong enough
to scour out the near-surface cooler temperatures.

The next threat of rain comes at the tail end of the forecast as
shortwave energy noses into the Ohio Valley from the midsection of
the country.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect VFR to continue under high pressure and a very dry
airmass, except at LUK where BR may reduce visibility late
tonight. Skies will stay clear until cirrus invade near the end
of the forecast ahead of the next cold front. Winds starting
near calm tonight will increase Friday with speeds reaching
around 10 knots out of the south to southwest. CVG may see
showers in the vicinity and gusty winds near the end of their 30
hour TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible from Friday evening into
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     OHZ077>079-081.
     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     OHZ073-074-082-088.
KY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     KYZ089>100.
IN...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Coniglio


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