Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 240257

National Weather Service Wilmington OH
957 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

Rain will spread into the region Monday into Monday night ahead
of an approaching low pressure system from the west. Rain will
gradually taper off on Tuesday as the low tracks north into the
lower Great Lakes. The chance for rain and snow will return for
Wednesday as an upper level low moves east into the region.


Broken cirrus has returned quicker than thought earlier across
the Cinci Tri-State, so have upped sky cover for the southwest.
In addition, latest satellite loop is showing some cirrus out
over central Indiana which might work into the Whitewater and
Miami Valleys overnight.

With the dry low levels, rural locations in the north have
cooled off quickly with many down into the 30s already. They
might drop a couple more degrees before steadying out or
rising towards sunset. Elsewhere should see temps drop into the
30s also.


Aforementioned leading s/wv will continue to move northeast
across the remainder of the forecast area Monday morning into
Monday afternoon. It appears that overall forcing will continue
to weaken. Thus, band of rain will continue to move northeast,
but it may break apart and become scattered in nature as it
moves into our northern/northeastern zones. By later Monday
afternoon a stronger mid level s/wv will approach the region
from the west. This feature will be associated with an area of
surface low pressure. Increasing dynamics will spread rain back
into the area from the west. Highs will range from the lower 40s
north to the mid/upper 40s south.

For Monday night, this time frame should have the highest chance
for measurable pcpn as s/wv and low level convergence team up to
bring the best overall vertical moisture. Have gone with 100
PoPs. A cold front associated with the low to our west will
begin to approach our southwest CWFA late. Lows will range from
the lower to mid 40s.


Rain will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning as a weakening
surface low and mid-level trough approaches the forecast area
from the west. Throughout the day, chances for precipitation
decrease with the south drying out for most of the day. With
southerly flow increasing, locations across the south may
approach 60 by Tuesday afternoon. During the evening, as the
initial mid- level trough disappears, a much stronger shortwave
quickly replaces it over the Ohio Valley, promoting low pressure
development to the north of the area heading into the overnight
and Wednesday morning.

As pressures fall to the north, an eastward moving cold front will
be the focus for additional precipitation development Wednesday
morning. Similar to the previous forecast, forecast confidence
remains moderate and PoPs were adjusted downward slightly. After the
cold front moves through, precipitation chances decrease and
blustery winds become the main story for the second half of
Wednesday into Thursday. Wind gusts pick up during the late
afternoon and evening Wednesday with the highest gusts across the
west. Wind gusts decrease overnight but gradient winds are elevated
into Thursday morning. Lingering precipitation within cold air
advection Wednesday evening changes to snow as descending freezing
levels help change rain to snow from west to east. Snow
accumulations are expected to fairly light and mainly across
locations to the north and northwest. Temperatures on Wednesday are
warmest during the morning hours ahead of the cold front passage.
Expect temperatures to initially start in the 40s/low 50s before
falling in to the low to mid 30s by evening.

Behind the cold front on Thursday, blustery winds remain with Bufkit
soundings continuing to show signs of 25-30 knot wind gusts during
the afternoon and early evening on Thursday. Could see a few areas
of flurries for northeast locations within the northwest flow, but
otherwise, dry conditions are forecast. Temperatures struggle to
reach above freezing on Thursday, and in combination with gusty
winds, wind chills may approach single digits for northwest
locations. Near single digit wind chills continue into Friday
morning as winds slowly decrease in intensity.

Precipitation forecast for Friday and Saturday is dry with this
forecast package however, could see an argument for low PoPs given
weak shortwaves embedded within the longwave trough. With the
details in location and timing of low confidence, a dry forecast was
preferred. With cold air advection still in place, below normal
temperatures are forecast Friday and Saturday.


Mid clouds are quickly exiting the tafs, leaving scattered
clouds for the first part of the overnight.

Later tonight pva will be on the increase as low level
moisture increases. VFR deck around 4-5kft is forecast to reach
the southern tafs around 09Z, just ahead of the pcpn. Column
will become saturated quickly and ceilings are forecast to drop
the MVFR to IFR as the rain band comes in. Initial pva weakens
as it lifts northeast across the remainder of the tafs Monday

This weakening could lead to a lull in the pcpn during the
afternoon hours which would also lift south to north across the
tafs. Ceilings may rebound a little back to MVFR.

Second and stronger disturbance will affect the tafs late
towards the end of the taf period. This will bring another round
of rain to the southern tafs around 21-22Z which will last into
the 30 hour taf period. Ceilings are expected to fall back to
IFR in the rain.

OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities likely
Monday night into Tuesday Morning. MVFR ceilings likely Tuesday
afternoon and night. MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities
likely Wednesday. MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday night into




SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...McGinnis
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