Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 030551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1251 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach overnight and move through Saturday
morning. High pressure will build in for Saturday night. Monday
will be the beginning of an unsettled weather pattern that will
bring several days of precipitation chances to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers have expanded in coverage as they track into and across
the forecast area. There has even been a bit of thunder in far
southern counties. Precipitation amounts are pretty light with
most of this activity. Bulk of precipitation will be moving out
of the area towards daybreak. However, additional scattered
showers may occur along a cold front that will be pushing into
far western counties late tonight. Winds will continue to be
strong with little change in temperatures except where the front
impinges before daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A cold front will move through at the start of the short term
Saturday morning. There will be enhanced wind gusts after the
passage of the front with a few gusts nearing advisory levels.
Due to this potential have a wind advisory out for the overnight
Friday night into Saturday morning across northwestern portions
of the forecast area. Winds will continue to gust through the
day, however expect them to gradually subside. Temperatures will
quickly drop during the morning hours with the high temperature
occurring early in the day and then dropping. After the front
moves through and the precipitation moves out, cloud cover will
decrease. There will still be the potential for some cu during
the day with CAA.

With cooler airmass in place and decreasing winds, expect
temperatures to drop down into the 20s and upper teens Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure settling over the region will move east overnight
and bring a return to southerly flow and warmer weather through
Monday night. Rain will overspread the region from the
southwest, and a cold front will cross early Tuesday. This front
will behave more as a wind shift with little change in the
temperature of the airmass. Rain chances will continue through
Wednesday and see a lull overnight.

Thursday will be another rainy period as a warm front noses
northeast through the region. Surface low pressure center will
race from IA Thursday evening to western New York by daybreak
Friday, with a trailing cold front crossing the Ohio Valley
overnight.

Models are in fair agreement with the overall steering pattern
in the extended forecast though surface features have a few
discrepancies in placement and timing. The period looks to begin
below normal on Sunday, near normal Monday and then above normal
for the rest of the work week.

Temperature guidance begins to swing in a larger circle after
mid week, indicating a higher potential of change on both low
and high temperatures. Precipitation guidance is high through
the period. The better forecasts may just try to touch on the
one or two periods where rain is not as likely or can be
reasonably eliminated from the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
South winds with gusts of 25 to 30 kt will continue through the
early part of the TAF period. A cold front will move across the
terminals between 11Z and 15Z. This will cause winds to veer to
the west northwest. There may be a brief surge of even higher
wind speeds for an hour or two after the front passes.
Thereafter winds will slowly decrease, especially after 20Z.

Showers will track across the area during the first several
hours of the TAF period. Expecting little to no visibility
restriction with the precipitation. However, moistening low
levels will result in ceilings falling to MVFR below 2kft.
Guidance has backed off on the potential for IFR ceilings,
although cannot completely rule that out immediately ahead of
the cold front. Within a few hours of the cold frontal passage,
clouds will clear leaving VFR through the remainder of the
period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Monday night
through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051-052.
KY...None.
IN...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...


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