


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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516 FXUS61 KILN 191949 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 349 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will approach the area tonight and extend near the Ohio River on Tuesday. Low pressure will track across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. A large upper level low will drop southeast across the Great Lakes for the latter part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Surface ridge axis extending across the area will get shunted off to the northeast overnight as a warm front approaches. Showers along the convergence axis of a low level jet will start to spread into eastern Indiana, as well as parts of southwest Ohio and northern Kentucky before daybreak. Lows will range from the upper 40s to the north and east of Columbus to the upper 50s in northern Kentucky. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Initial short wave will pass across the area in the morning. Widespread showers associated with this will diminish as they head east into drier airmass. Warm front will lift to near or just south of the Ohio River before stalling. South of this boundary, the atmosphere will become quite unstable in addition to being well sheared. Activity will increase again during the afternoon into the evening as another short wave moves through the region. There will be the potential for all forms of severe weather near and south of wherever the warm front ends up, which may be far southern counties of the forecast area. In addition, plentiful moisture will have moved in allowing for efficient rainfall. And thus some corridors of heavy rain may occur which could lead to flash flooding. Will not have to get very far north of the warm front to have enough stability at the surface to substantially minimize any severe potential. As this second short wave progresses east, it will take a surface low across the area. In the wake of this, the chance of precipitation will decrease quite a bit during the latter part of Tuesday night. Highs will only be in the 60s north of the warm front but in the lower to mid 70s south of the front. Lows will only fall into the mid upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Below normal temperatures are expected through the long term. Rain chances are expected every day through the long term except for Sunday. Several disturbances will work through the region bringing cloud cover and shower chances. On Wednesday there is some limited instability and therefore have a slight chance of thunder in the forecast as well. Given cold air aloft, cannot rule out out some small hail with some of the shower activity. Wednesday through Friday will be breezy with wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR will continue through much of the period. High and some mid clouds will prevail through at least 06Z. An approaching system will spread showers across the region, mainly after 10Z. Initially, conditions will remain VFR with the showers but then eventually lower to MVFR. There is some potential for IFR ceilings late in the period. Northeast winds will become east and strengthen to 10 to 15 kt after 12Z. OUTLOOK...IFR to MVFR ceilings expected Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Wednesday night and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...