516
FXUS61 KILN 191949
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
349 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will approach the area tonight and extend near the Ohio
River on Tuesday. Low pressure will track across the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday. A large upper level low will drop southeast
across the Great Lakes for the latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Surface ridge axis extending across the area will get shunted off to
the northeast overnight as a warm front approaches. Showers along the
convergence axis of a low level jet will start to spread into eastern
Indiana, as well as parts of southwest Ohio and northern Kentucky
before daybreak.

Lows will range from the upper 40s to the north and east of Columbus
to the upper 50s in northern Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Initial short wave will pass across the area in the morning.
Widespread showers associated with this will diminish as they head
east into drier airmass. Warm front will lift to near or just south
of the Ohio River before stalling. South of this boundary, the
atmosphere will become quite unstable in addition to being well
sheared. Activity will increase again during the afternoon into the
evening as another short wave moves through the region.

There will be the potential for all forms of severe weather near and
south of wherever the warm front ends up, which may be far southern
counties of the forecast area. In addition, plentiful moisture will
have moved in allowing for efficient rainfall. And thus some
corridors of heavy rain may occur which could lead to flash flooding.
Will not have to get very far north of the warm front to have enough
stability at the surface to substantially minimize any severe
potential.

As this second short wave progresses east, it will take a surface low
across the area. In the wake of this, the chance of precipitation
will decrease quite a bit during the latter part of Tuesday night.

Highs will only be in the 60s north of the warm front but in the
lower to mid 70s south of the front. Lows will only fall into the mid
upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Below normal temperatures are expected through the long term.  Rain
chances are expected every day through the long term except for
Sunday.  Several disturbances will work through the region bringing
cloud cover and shower chances.  On Wednesday there is some limited
instability and therefore have a slight chance of thunder in the
forecast as well. Given cold air aloft, cannot rule out out some
small hail with some of the shower activity.  Wednesday through
Friday will be breezy with wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR will continue through much of the period. High and some mid
clouds will prevail through at least 06Z. An approaching system will
spread showers across the region, mainly after 10Z. Initially,
conditions will remain VFR with the showers but then eventually lower
to MVFR. There is some potential for IFR ceilings late in the period.
Northeast winds will become east and strengthen to 10 to 15 kt after
12Z.

OUTLOOK...IFR to MVFR ceilings expected Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible
Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...