Text Products for AFD Issued by ILN

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 021350
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
850 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
For today, a low pressure system will weaken as it heads
northeast into the eastern Great Lakes. For Sunday into Sunday
night, another low pressure system will deepen as it moves
northeast from the upper Ohio Valley into the eastern Great
Lakes. Periodic chances for precipitation will then continue
into the first part of next week as additional weather systems
move through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak surface low pressure centered over northern Ohio this
morning will continue to shift off to the northeast through
this afternoon. As it does, a trailing weak cold front
currently extending down across western Ohio, will push slowly
east across the eastern portions of our area. This will keep a
fair amount of clouds in place across the region today.
Meanwhile, a developing surface wave over the eastern Tennessee
Valley will begin to ride up along the front later this
afternoon. This will lead to a chance of showers across our far
southeast later today. Highs will range from the upper 40s
northwest to around 60 degrees in our far southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, low pressure over the Tennessee Valley will lift
northeast to eastern Kentucky/West Virginia. Embedded s/wv
energy aloft along with low level forcing will bring the threat
of rain to our southeast zones. Meanwhile, the rest of the area
should remain dry. Lows will range from the upper 30s northwest
to the upper 40s southeast.

On Sunday, additional mid level s/wv energy will lift northeast
from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes. This energy will
allow aforementioned low pressure to strengthen as it rotates
northeast into the eastern Great Lakes. As the rain in the
southeast moves northeast, additional pcpn in the form of
showers will move in from the west associated with the mid level
s/wv. The best chance for rain is slated for our northwest
zones as overall lift will be maximized there. It will become
breezy to locally windy as the pressure gradient tightens and
diurnal mixing brings stronger winds aloft down to the surface.
In fact, wind gusts up to 35 mph will be possible. Highs once
again will range from the upper 40s northwest to near 60
southeast.

For Sunday night, the mid level s/wv quickly moves off to the
northeast, taking aforementioned surface low with it. The pcpn
threat will come to an end. Winds will diminish as a weak
surface ridge briefly builds into the region. It will be a
colder with lows dropping into the lower to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave moving through the larger flow pattern will swing
by our region on Monday with vort max focused to our south.
While deep layer moisture will be scarce, there should be plenty
of mid and love level moisture to eek out some rain showers,
particularly along the Ohio River, during the day on Monday.
While a brief mix cannot be ruled out prior to sunrise
(overnight lows in the mid 30s), the temperature profile warms
up enough during daylight hours for precipitation to fall as
rain. Daytime highs on Monday in the mid 40s. This system scoots
off to the east and we dry out Monday evening before the next
shortwave arrives from the northwest. This almost Clipper like
system will push quickly through the Great Lakes Tuesday,
bringing another chance for precipitation (some of which may
fall as a mix during the early morning hours Tuesday) and a
blast of cold air pulled down from Canada. This airmass will be
more noticeable on Wednesday, when highs only reach the upper
30s/ low 40s.

High pressure stemming from the southern Plains expands
northeast into the Ohio Valley region on Wednesday, drying us
out for the remainder of the week. In addition, flow returns to
southerly near the end of the work week and daytime temperatures
look to rebound back to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure over northern Ohio this morning will continue to
weaken as it moves northeast toward the eastern Great Lakes
today. A weak frontal boundary trailing from this low will push
into the region. For today, low level moisture remains in place
across the region. Ceilings will vary between MVFR and VFR Winds
from the southwest around 10 knots will veer to the west later
today, then diminish and becoming northerly late.

For tonight, another area of low pressure will move northeast
across eastern Kentucky and West Virginia. Meanwhile, an
embedded mid level disturbance will be approaching the region
from the west. The terminals will be mainly between these two
systems with perhaps a low chance of rain skimming the eastern
terminals (KCMH/KLCK) overnight. Ceilings will vary between MVFR
and VFR. However, some lower ceilings (IFR) and MVFR
visibilities may occur over the lower Scioto Valley and
northeast Kentucky where the threat of rain will be.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible at times
Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hickman
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
