Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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823
FXUS64 KJAN 190932
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
432 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Today through tonight:

Generally speaking, the weather pattern remains hot and humid
today in association with the eastern periphery of a strong
subtropical ridge, but there are some complexities that result in
low confidence concerning the forecast details.

A weak mid level perturbation associated with considerable
mid/high level cloudiness over NE MS early this morning is
forecast to move slowly south across the region today, and this
should help enhance diurnal convective precipitation chances per
guidance consensus, especially as we go from late morning into the
early afternoon for central/eastern MS. Because of the greater
potential for cloud cover and early convective development,
heating may be discrupted enough to keep the forecast area below
heat advisory threshold. Having said that, locations in the
ArkLaMiss Delta region will have more sun and heating potential,
and this could put them at a greater risk for eventually needing a
heat advisory. Otherwise, expect deep convection to end early
this evening with mostly quiet and very humid conditions
overnight. /EC/

Tuesday through Sunday night:

The ArkLaMiss will continue to remain under the eastern periphery
of a strong mid level ridge on Tuesday. Slightly higher heights
across the area may limit convection over the western portions of
the area, but anticipate diurnal storms to develop once again as
PWATS will be around 2.0 inches across the area. Another hot day
is on tap, with highs in the low/mid 90s. Heat indices will range
from 100 to 105 across much of the area and above 105 across the
delta. A heat advisory may be needed for much of the delta on
Tuesday. The ridge will weaken across the area on Wednesday, and
this combined with plenty of moisture and diurnal heating, will
kick off another round of afternoon and early evening storms.

The ECMWF tries to drag a cold front into the region on Friday as
upper troughing deepens to our north, while the GFS is not as deep
with the trough. Either way it looks like the trend for diurnal
storms will continue through the weekend, as PWATS continue to
remain around 2.0 inches. High temperatures will be a little cooler
through the extended period, as the area remains under weak upper
troughing sandwiched in between the sub-tropical ridge to the east
and west. Expect highs to top out in the low 90s each day through
the weekend. /15/

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:

A moistened airmass following convective precipitation from
earlier today is supporting increased chances for low
ceilings/fog overnight into the early morning hours. Expect
SHRA/TSRA to develop relatively quick Monday given strong heating
of the moist air, with greatest threat for southern/eastern MS
sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this forecast
period. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  74  95  74 /  61  11  44  10
Meridian      93  73  95  73 /  50  18  45  17
Vicksburg     94  75  95  75 /  58  11  35   9
Hattiesburg   91  72  92  72 /  74  23  64  20
Natchez       92  73  92  74 /  71  22  48  13
Greenville    93  75  94  75 /  37   9  26   4
Greenwood     92  74  94  74 /  48  17  27   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$



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