Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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737
FXUS64 KJAN 212017
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
317 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday night: Continued dry through the period
with a warming trend. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1022mb
high centered just off the Mississippi Gulf coast and an 1000mb
low over north central Kansas. Mid afternoon water vapor
imagery/RAP analysis showed a mid level ridge whose axis was just
west of our CWA. The surface high will shift east but along with
the mid level ridge, remain dominant over our CWA through Tuesday
as the surface low over Kansas shifts northeast and leaves a
stalled cold front well to our northwest. This will allow
temperatures to warm each day and moisture to slowly return to our
region. Due to mostly clear skies and our dry airmass, morning
lows will continue to be cooler than normal for the eastern two
thirds of the CWA Monday and Tuesday mornings. Lows will be warmer
than normal Tuesday night areawide. Afternoon highs will top out
slightly warmer than normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s each
day.

Wednesday through Sunday: Models have come into better agreement
with closing off a low over old Mexico by Wednesday morning. Our
winds aloft will back to the southwest as this feature shifts east
through the day. Clouds will be on the increase and deeper
moisture will return to our CWA Wednesday. It appears that much of
our area will remain capped most of Wednesday but by afternoon a
few showers will be possible over our western most zones. The
closed low and attendant surface low are expected to track
northeast and over the ArkLaTex by Thursday morning. This will
serve to increase rain chances over our western zones. There
remain differences in the models with the strength and track of
the closed low Thursday through Friday but there does remain
favorable parameters for severe storm development and heavy
rainfall of a couple inches across portions of our CWA Thursday
into Friday evening. Wl refrain from introducing anything in the
HWO with this package until a greater consensus develops in later
model runs. The system is expected to be shifting east of
Mississippi Friday morning with slightly cooler and drier air
filtering into our CWA Friday night. A return to dry weather is
expected for the weekend along with warmer temperatures as high
pressure surface and aloft build back over the region. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conds wl cont through Monday. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       49  80  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      48  81  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     52  79  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   46  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       51  80  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    55  78  57  80 /   0   0   0   1
Greenwood     53  80  56  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

22



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