Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 302118
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
318 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Tonight through tomorrow...Another short wave will move into the
area this evening along with more light rain. Currently it looks
like the bulk of the rainfall tonight will be mostly across the
Delta and the northern portion of the area. Temperatures look to
remain at or above freezing during this period, but cannot rule out
some patchy very light freezing drizzle/light rain across
northern Ashley, Chicot or Bolivar County Tuesday morning. Expect
any patchy light freezing precip to mainly be on elevated
surfaces. Another concern tonight will be patchy dense fog for
areas mainly along and south of the Natchez Trace Corridor.

The precip will end for the most part late Tuesday morning, with
mainly just light rain or drizzle possible through much of the day
Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid 30s in the north
to near 70 in the Pine Belt Region./15/

Tuesday night through Wednesday: As a front remains stalled across
our area, this will be an interesting time frame for temperature
watching. While HBG holds in the 50s and 60s, temps will fall into
the 30s for many areas northwest of the Natchez Trace by Wednesday
morning, with some portions of northwest MS and southeast AR near or
below freezing. Meanwhile, the next upper disturbance to trigger
mostly light precip will skirt the area Tuesday afternoon into Wed
morning. While it will be cold light rain for most, surface temps
may be low enough for a mix with or changeover to freezing rain,
mainly north of a Crossett to Greenville to Minter City line. With
air temps expected to remain somewhat marginal, near or just below
freezing, ice accretion is not expected to be very efficient.
Nevertheless, light accumulations on primarily elevated surfaces/
vegetation is possible. We will continue to highlight this potential
in the HWO/graphics. Shallow cold airmasses are notoriously tricky,
so we will continue to monitor the latest obs/guidance trends over
the next few days. Temps should return to above freezing in these
areas by mid/late Wed morning, with precip generally tapering off
for the time being.

Wednesday night into Thursday: The surface front will remain stalled
over the region until a more coherent mid/upper wave advances
eastward across the area Thursday into Friday. Ahead of it, our
final rounds of rain will begin Wednesday afternoon and continue
through the day Thursday. The final round on Thursday will be
supported by strong moisture transport and climatologically high
PWs, which will result in widespread rainfall amounts in the 1-2"
range, with potential for a band or two of locally higher amounts. A
localized flooding threat will continue to be highlighted in the
HWO/graphics for Thursday.

Friday through next Monday: Rain will taper off Thursday night or
early Friday as the front finally pushes past the area and surface
ridging builds in across much of the eastern CONUS, with dry weather
conditions continuing into the beginning of next week. A freeze is
possible Saturday morning in the wake of the front; otherwise, temps
will moderate back to near normal by the end of the forecast period.
/DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

All TAF sites are LIFR this morning and expect sites to remain
IFR/LIFR through the period. Most of the rain has ended, but
expect light rain to move back into GLH/GWO after midnight. The
winds will remain out of the Northwest at 5-10kts through the
period./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  43  52  41 /  10  20  20  60
Meridian      65  50  60  44 /  10  10  10  30
Vicksburg     61  38  46  37 /  10  20  40  70
Hattiesburg   72  58  68  52 /  20  10  10  10
Natchez       65  43  51  40 /  10  10  20  40
Greenville    50  34  38  32 /  10  70  70  80
Greenwood     56  37  44  35 /  10  50  60  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

15/DL/


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