Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271748
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1248 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2023

Not much change to the grids as the forecast remains on track.
Only did a quick freshening up based on the latest observations
and updates to the morning text products.

UPDATE Issued at 815 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2023

Low clouds and flurries are on their way out of the area. Have
freshened up the PoPs and sky cover to account for the latest
radar and satellite trends. The rest of the forecast generally
remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 526 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2023

The latest upper level map features seasonably strong ridging
aligned across the eastern Pacific. Low pressure is spiraling
across the northern portion of Hudson Bay, with expansive cyclonic
flow fanned south through the northern half of the CONUS, with
multiple short wave troughs traversing the flow. Meanwhile further
east, another area of high pressure remains centered near Cuba.
At the surface, high pressure is seen along the northern Gulf
Coast, with surface ridging nosed into Tennessee and eastern
Kentucky. Low pressure is wrapped up across northern Minnesota,
with a stationary boundary branched east through the northern
Great Lakes. A warm front extends south from the low, advancing
east into the Midwest. Mostly cloudy skies are starting to relent
across the area, as a short wave trough gradually exits east over
the Ohio Valley. Lift associated with this wave allowed for
scattered moderate snow showers across the I-64 corridor
overnight, bringing localized accumulations and slick road
conditions early this morning. The snow shower/flurry activity
will be diminishing through dawn; however, as temperatures
gradually cool off another degree or so, the slick conditions will
continue through mid-morning, and have included a Special Weather
Statement through 9 AM.

The models are in good agreement through the short term, with the
broad cyclonic flow elongating more so through Saturday, allowing
for faster zonal flow across locations east of the Mississippi
River. At the surface, high pressure will generally slide along
the northern Gulf Coast through today, before shifting along the
Carolina coasts by Saturday. Meanwhile, low pressure will move
into southeast Canada, allowing for a warm front to move east
across our area today. The associated cold front will then stall
across the Ohio Valley through Saturday, with low pressure
emerging across the southern Plains.

The resultant weather across eastern Kentucky, will be dry and
milder. Flurries and isolated snow showers will end across our
area by around dawn or just after early this morning. Clouds will
diminish, before building in again from the west, associated with
the transiting warm front. Moisture will be too shallow to support
any precipitation. Southwest winds will become gusty through the
day, with some locations seeing up to 30 mph at times this
afternoon. Temperatures will top out mainly in the mid 40s. Winds
will stay up past dusk, thanks to a persisting better pressure
gradient between the departing Canadian low and high pressure
across the southeastern CONUS. Eventually, some valley
decoupling is expected, particularly across our southeast, where
some upper 20s look achievable for lows, while most other places
remain in the 30s. Saturday will feature a milder day, as mostly
sunny skies and not quite as breezy southwest winds allow for
temperatures to rebound into the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 523 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2023

Key Points:

* Temps start out above normal before dropping to near normal by
  Tuesday.

* An active pattern is expected through the long term with chances
  for rain and snow across eastern Kentucky, though there is
  considerable disagreement in timing among the global models.

Models show decent agreement through the first half of the long term
period. An upper level disturbance located across the northern
Plains and upper Mississippi Valley will support a surface boundary
draped across the central Plains and northern Ohio Valley. This will
drop southeast as a cold front which will support a good chance for
rain late Saturday night through Sunday night. Sustained winds
Sunday afternoon will be from the south at 10-15 mph with gusts of
20+ mph. Lingering moisture may support a few light showers through
Monday.

Model agreement quickly deteriorates by mid-week, though the pattern
will likely be unsettled. A disturbance starting out across the PNW
will dig south along the west coast, there is decent agreement in
the models for this larger scale feature. The biggest disagreement
among the models is the pattern downstream from this feature which
will likely have several short waves embedded within the upper level
flow. The location, timing, and strength of these shortwaves varies
widely among the global models and therefore the forecast is hard to
pin down at this time. given the wide model spread, have decided to
stay close to the NBM solution. Precipitation will move in late
Monday night into Tuesday with mainly rain expected though some snow
is possible where temps drop more drastically during the overnight
hours. Rain chances will continue into Wednesday. A better chance
for a transition to snow is possible Wednesday night with a better
shot of cold air filtering into the area along northwest flow.

There is potential for an impactful system coming out of the
southern Plains late in the period, however, model spread continues
to be an issue at this time. This potential system will continue to
be monitored during later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the period as a few passing
clouds will be possible today. Surface winds, due to a strong jet
core, will  increase through the day with LLWS overnight tonight
before tapering off early in the morning as the jet core exits the
region. Winds will increase again tomorrow with sustained 10kts
but mainly for KSME, KLOZ and KSYM. A disturbance moves across
the Ohio Valley, clouds will be on the increase across the
northern tier of the CWA with lowered but still VFR CIGS for KSYM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...BATZ
AVIATION...VORST


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