Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 031422
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1022 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020

Morning obs have been blended into the forecast, with no
substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 740 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020

Just a quick update to add in the current obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020

08z sfc analysis shows Kentucky between systems with some weak
high pressure nudging up from the Deep South while the more active
storm tracks are well to the north with lower pressure. On
satellite, some of the high clouds from storms well to the north
are seeping south toward eastern Kentucky. Until they get here,
most of the area will stay clear, aside from another batch over
the Cumberland Valley, contributing to the ongoing moderate ridge
to valley temperature split. This is evidence in many of the
valley temperature obs showing low 60s while most of the ridges
remain in the low 70s. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are more uniform
across the area - generally in the low to mid 60s - as the winds
continue mostly light from the southwest.

The models are in slightly better agreement aloft than what they
showed 24 hours ago through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the erosion of ridging over Kentucky
today on account of lower heights drifting into the region from
the west along with some mid level energy. Eventually heights will
lower to the point that general troughing and weakness will
settle over Kentucky through Thursday. At that time there will be
fast enough flow through the bulk of the Ohio Valley - carrying
some healthier impulses by just to the north - in a mostly zonal
manner. It is these features, and the small height falls, that
should be enough to end our recent (and welcomed by most) dry wx
pattern. Given the relatively small model spread have favored the
blended NBM as the starting point for the grids, though did
incorporate the NAM12 timing and pcpn pattern into the grids, as
well.

Sensible weather will feature another warm and humid day with
little chance for any relief from showers and thunderstorms. That
chance may come tonight in the muggy air as storms to the north
could track into our northernmost counties after midnight - if
they can hold together. A much better shot at storms can be
expected on Thursday proper as the active pattern aloft activates
the warm and moist airmass in place over Kentucky. Some of the
storms could become rather tall, as well, with a potential for
strong wind gusts through the day. The convection and cloudier
conditions will likely keep high temperatures from records on
Thursday and probably slightly lower than today`s maxes. Again
tonight, though, we will see a small to moderate ridge to valley
temp split for much of the night, though activity to the north may
mitigate the differences there. Also, some patchy valley fog can
still be expected - especially near eastern rivers.

The NBM temperatures were mainly tweaked for terrain differences
early this morning and later tonight. As for PoPs - have nudged
them toward the NBM depictions that mainly result in them being
slightly lower on Thursday than NBM guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020

With the shortwave exiting the area Thursday night, a brief period
of subsidence should overspread the area, allowing for drier
conditions during the overnight hours into Friday morning.
However, lingering moisture and instability will lead to
additional shower and storm development during the day Friday.
While coverage is not expected to be high, the effective coverage
over the course of the day could be quite high. Thus, will
maintain the higher rain chances despite most of the day being dry
for most areas. We should see showers and storms decrease again
Friday night. A cold front will sweep south into the area on
Saturday with some showers or storms possible with the boundary.
The question is timing with the front as some models want to push
the boundary through much faster on Saturday. If this happens rain
chances could end much earlier on Saturday, but if the front hangs
up, we could see much more shower and storm coverage. For now,
opting to side with the slower frontal passage to allow for a
chance for precipitation to linger into Saturday afternoon. High
pressure will nose in from the north by Saturday night into Sunday
with a period of dry weather expected. Temperatures will also take
a slight dip for Sunday. However, temperatures will rebound
quickly into the early portion of next week as heights begin to
build across the region. We could see temperatures flirting with
the upper 80s or 90 by Monday and this should continue into
Tuesday.

The tropical system (presently tropical storm Cristobal)
that is expected to make landfall on the Gulf coast this weekend,
may work into the region by mid week and this could bring rain
chances back into the area by Tuesday night or Wednesday. At this
time, hard to have much confidence in the track of this system, as
its still well south near the Yucatan Peninsula and there is
plenty of uncertainty on where it might track after making
landfall. If the track were to take up into east Kentucky, we
could see some locally heavy rainfall by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020

VFR conditions are expected through the period as any fog is
limited to the river valleys early this morning - dissipating
quickly - and late tonight. Winds will be mainly light - topping
out as high as 10 kts out of the southwest during peak heating
this afternoon before dropping off again. Additional thunderstorm
potential may affect the SYM terminal late tonight, but chances
are too low to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/CEG
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF


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