Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 261145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
645 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Issued at 533 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Update to increase the winds and wind gusts for Saturday using the
latest CONSMOS. Latest model data suggests the potential for
strong gusty northwest winds to develop late tonight and continue
through Saturday morning. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible in the
morning. Winds to veer to the north and diminish somewhat Saturday


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Dry weather will continue through Friday afternoon. Increasing
clouds are expected throughout Friday afternoon in advance of the
next system. Despite increasing clouds, temperatures rise into the
upper 60s to upper 70s on Friday.

Active weather returns for Friday night and Saturday morning as a
strong upper level trough and resulting surface low pressure system
moves across the central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the western Panhandle Friday afternoon
and slowly spread eastward through the overnight hours. Will keep
thunderstorm coverage scattered. At this time, severe potential
remains limited with the biggest threats being small hail and brief
gusty winds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Saturday morning.
However, as the best instability moves eastward Saturday morning,
the thunderstorm potential will also shift eastward out of north
central Nebraska. Rain showers will likely continue across portions
of the northern Sandhills and O`Neill area through Saturday morning.

Drier but cooler conditions return for Saturday afternoon into
Sunday afternoon. Cold air advection with 850mb temperatures
dropping to near zero degrees C to slightly below zero degrees C
will keep surface temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s on Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures will slowly warm into the mid 60s and low
70s on Sunday.

Several disturbances will impact western and north central Nebraska
for the beginning of next week. Precipitation returns on Sunday
night and Monday as a system develops off the Rockies. This system
will bring rain and isolated thunderstorm chances to the area again.
Severe weather potential remains low at this time for Sunday night.
Another system arrives on Tuesday bringing much cooler temperatures
again to the region with some light rain and possibly snow chances
across portions of the northern and central Sandhills. Snow
accumulations near 2 inches are possible across portions of
southwest Nebraska (Ogallala, Oshkosh, Arthur areas will likely see
the highest totals). Elsewhere, light accumulations are expected.
Most snow will accumulate generally on grassy areas with minimal
impacts to area roads. However, snow will likely be heavy and wet in
character and may cause some travel headaches early Tuesday morning
across southwest Nebraska. Updates are likely to this forecast in
the upcoming days.

Snow will change back to all rain on Tuesday as temperatures rise
back into the mid 40s to low 50s. Rain continues into Wednesday with
another brief change over to a rain/snow mix or all snow in the Pine
Ridge region again on Tuesday night. Under a half inch of snow
accumulation is expected on Tuesday night. A much needed return to
dry weather moves in for the middle of next week. Temperatures also
rebound back into the 60s by next Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

A disturbance will move through western Nebraska tonight with a
chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. A strong cold front
will move through after midnight, with strong northwest winds late
tonight. Winds may gust up to 35KT. Stratus will move into north
central Nebraska late tonight, with ceilings at KVTN falling to
near 1000ft agl toward 12Z. VFR conditions expected at KLBF the
next 24 hours.




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