Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231228
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

The winter weather advisory for parts of the eastern Panhandle
and northwest NEB was canceled due to threat of measureable snow
ending based on trends and guidance. Further, blowing snow is not
expected to be an impact there given lack of fresh snowfall the
last 48 hrs based on reports and NOHRSC analyses.

Latest water vapor imagery shows dry slot/dry conveyor lifting
into far western OK and OK Panhandle that`s expected to move
northeast to northeast KS this afternoon. Regional radar display
shows isolated light snow showers currently lifting north across
far southwest NEB, elsewhere precipitation is evolving over
southwest KS into east central CO presently. Current thinking is
the highest snowfall totals today will be along and south of
Interstate 80 northeast into Custer county given placement of
trowal and anticipated evolution of lower tropospheric deformation
and frontogenesis today. However, there is increased concern for
banded snow developing more across the eastern periphery of the
forecast area late morning-early afternoon, and not outside to the
east of the forecast area as previously thought. This would
affect snowfall largely across areas of Lincoln, Frontier, and
Custer counties. Thus forecast snowfall amounts where updated
to reflect this but will need to continue to monitor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

A low pressure system will continue to track across the central
Plains through Saturday leading to active weather across north
central Nebraska.

Freezing drizzle will continue throughout the remainder of the early
morning hours. Another couple hundredths of ice accumulation is
expected through 9am CST mainly southeast of a line from Imperial to
North Platte to Broken Bow to O`Neill. Precipitation will slowly
transition from west to east to snow throughout the morning hours.
As a result, locations across the west and southwest will see the
greatest snow accumulations. Here, expect an additional 1 to 3
inches, locally up to 4 inches. Across the east, lesser snow amounts
will be seen as freezing drizzle sticks around a bit longer there.
Only 1 to 2 inches can be expected east of US-83. In addition to
falling snow on Saturday, gusty northerly winds will cause blowing
and drifting snow. Extra caution should be used if travel is
necessary on Saturday.

Snow gradually ends from west to east throughout Saturday afternoon
with snow completely east of the region by Saturday evening. Blowing
snow will continue into Saturday night across north central Nebraska
with blowing and drifting snow continuing. A winter weather advisory
will remain in effect for the entire western and north central
Nebraska region through Saturday afternoon. See the latest headline
for additional details about this storm.

High pressure and a brief reprieve from the winter weather will
return on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

The next chance of precipitation will occur on Monday. For the most
part, this system will track to the north of the region and will
only briefly target the northern counties. Less than a half inch of
new snow is possible.

Otherwise, a pretty quiet week is in store for north central
Nebraska until the end of the week. A few weak systems will track
through the central Plains bringing another chance at some
precipitation late in the week. Confidence is too low to put in
anything more than more than low chance PoPs. Will continue to
monitor these disturbances over the next couple days.

For temperatures...one more mild day in the 30s is expected for
Saturday before highs drop back into the 20s and teens. Highs return
into the 30s for late next week. Overnight low temperatures will
remain fairly consistent in the single digits through much of next
week. Low temperatures will eventually rise back into the teens late
next week. Wind chill values will drop to the 15 to 19 below zero
range on Sunday night/Monday morning and again to near 15 below zero
on Tuesday morning. Will hold off on any headlines for now, but
anyone with outside plans early in the morning next week should be
prepared for chilly temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Patchy fog continues generally east of Highway 83. Otherwise, low
clouds cover much of the Sandhills, north central, and southwest
NEB with ceilings IFR to low-end VFR (less than 5 kft). Current
thinking is bulk of snowfall today will be roughly across the
southeast half of the local forecast area with the highest
snowfall along and south of the Interstate 80 northeast into
Custer county. Light snow showers anticipated across southwest NE
early this morning with more snow expected to move north/develop
mid morning into the afternoon across southwest NEB into north
central NEB. Further, winds will be gusty and strengthen late
morning into the afternoon that will cause patchy to areas of
blowing snow. Otherwise, largely MVFR-IFR conditions expected
across the southeast half of the local forecast area today. Snow
is expected to wind down by mid afternoon and end during the late
afternoon hours. Clearing skies are anticipated late afternoon-
evening then from west to east with additional clouds across
northwest NEB then tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
for NEZ005>010-024>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...ET


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