Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 302104
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
304 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

H5 analysis this morning had low pressure over far
northern Quebec. An elongated trough of low pressure extended
southwest of the low, from western Ontario, into northern Utah and
off the coast of southern California. Recent satellite imagery had a
circulation, south of Santa Barbara California. East of the trough,
broad west-southwesterly flow extended from the southwestern CONUS,
east-northeast to the Ohio Valley. Further east, the flow became
more westerly. Light snow and flurries was occurring this morning
across southwestern Nebraska. This activity continues to shrink and
clearing skies have slowly progressed south from northern into
central Nebraska this afternoon. Underneath a strong arctic high,
and even with some clearing skies in northern Nebraska, 2 PM CT
temperatures were cold, ranging from -1 degrees at Gordon to 6
above zero at North Platte and Ogallala.

Key Messages:

-Wind chills of -18 to -29 are expected tonight and a wind advisory
is in effect for the entire forecast area.

-Going forward into the weekend, temperatures will gradually warm,
reaching the 30s/lower 40s by Friday and beyond with dry conditions
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 304 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Temperatures will be the main forecast focus in the short term.
Surface high pressure will drift south and east of the area
overnight, allowing skies to gradually clear in the southern half
of the forecast. After light and variable winds this afternoon,
they will shift to the west tonight on the northern periphery of
the high, increasing to 5 to 10 MPH overnight. With clearing
skies, fresh snow cover and westerly winds, we will see a good
cold air drainage event tonight. That being said, trended lows
toward the colder MET guidance. This resulted in lows ranging from
-5 to 10 below zero tonight. With 5 to 10 MPH winds expected,
wind chills overnight will approach 20 to 30 below zero. The
inherited forecast package had a wind chill advisory in effect for
all of the forecast area tonight into Tuesday morning. This
headline was in effect from midnight CT tonight until 9 AM CT
Tuesday morning. After running my apparent T`s with this forecast
run, decided to extend this for an additional hour Tuesday
morning. After a very cold start Tuesday morning, temperatures
will rebound into the lower 20s Tuesday afternoon. The latest MET
and MAV guidance had highs in the 30s for all of western and north
central Nebraska Tuesday. Given the cold start and expected light
winds, decided to tailor highs toward the much colder NBM and ECS
guidance. Lows Tuesday night will be warmer compared to tonight`s
forecast, with readings in the single digits above zero.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Ridging will begin to transition the western third of the CONUS
into the central CONUS by the end of the week. This will result in
a slow increase in temperatures Wednesday into the weekend. Highs
will approach the freezing mark in most locations Wednesday.
Slightly cooler temperatures in the middle to upper 20s are
expected Thursday in the northeastern forecast area, thanks to a
back door cold front. Elsewhere, highs should reach into the lower
30s. Temperatures will moderate further into the 30s/lower 40s
Friday through Monday. Utilized the NBM for highs each day as
there was little spread between its forecast members. This was
less than or equal to 5 degrees each day which is relatively small
for days 4 through 7 in the forecast. This guidance was also well
below the MEX guidance which actually has mid 50s for KLBF
Sunday. ATTM, not expecting much reduction of snow cover across
the area this week which lends support for a cooler forecast. With
respect to precipitation: A weak mid level disturbance will track
across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska Friday night into
Saturday. ATTM, the threat for precipitation with this feature
appears low with this morning`s forecast runs. The next threat for
precipitation appears to be the middle of next week which is
beyond the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 151 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Low
clouds may linger at the LBF terminal but sky coverage will
preclude any restrictions to flight rules. Expect winds to remain
light at less than 10 knots through the end of the forecast
period.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...NMJ


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