Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 062334
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
734 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s and low 90s across the
area, under mostly sunny skies. SDF has reached 92 so far, with a
couple hours of heating still possible. 94 is the record at SDF from
2008, and it is not out of the question that we can tie that.
BWG/LEX records won`t be reachable today.

Otherwise, the only other thing worth mentioning is that there is
still a slight chance of a brief shower or storm in our far NE/E CWA
between 7-9 PM EDT. The HRRR has been consistent showing development
there early this evening, and given a pretty unstable airmass (2500-
3000 J/KG) amidst a weak cap think there is enough confidence to
keep the small/short-lived pop there. In addition, there appears to
be a weak wave dropping SE through our area around the time.
Upstream over eastern IL/western IN a few showers have popped amid
what appears to be a batch of ACCAS on satellite imagery. These are
associated with some slightly steeper mid level lapse rates (SPC
mesoanalysis) and this could be just enough of a trigger in our NE
around the time the HRRR also suggests some brief activity.

Expect a clear and dry overnight into Sunday with slightly "cooler"
temps topping out in the low to mid 80s in most spots. Temps around
90 are still possible down by BWG. There will also be a notable drop
off in dew points, especially across the northern CWA where some
upper 50s will feel quite nice compared to the low 70s Td`s we had
earlier today.

Lastly, did put some patchy fog for late tonight/Sunday morning down
around Lake Cumberland where low level moisture won`t be as scoured
out by the weak front. Look for lows in the low 60s north to upper
60s south tonight.

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Fair weather continues Sunday night and Monday with a 591 dam mid
level ridge building east over the Ohio Valley. Sfc high pressure is
forecast to drift from the Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile,
Cristobal will begin to accelerate and move NNW over Louisiana and
Arkansas on the western periphery of the ridge. Skies Sunday night
will remain clear over our neck of the woods with lows in the low to
mid 60s. The cirrus shield from the tropical system will arrive on
Monday, thickening from south to north Monday afternoon into Monday
night. Despite 850 mb temps near 20 C on Monday, low level
thicknesses are pretty similar to today (Saturday). So went with
solid upper 80s and lower 90s for highs. If any area were to touch
the mid 90s, Metro Louisville is the best candidate.

Cristobal should make the extratropical transition on Tuesday, with
the center of the storm moving north through Missouri. Rich tropical
moisture will continue to be transported northward over the mid-
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. The heaviest rainfall and
greater risk for flash flooding will be off to our west in far
western KY, IL, and MO. But we do see more of an open wave in the
mid levels swing northeast over the region on Tuesday, along with an
increasing southerly LLJ. Expect scattered showers and storms and
breezy conditions, with very efficient rainfall production/high
rainfall rates. Showers and storms may become more numerous at times
west of I-65. Highs will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

A large upper trough over the western US early next week eventually
absorbs the remnants of Cristobal over the Upper Midwest by
Wednesday of next week. The system is likely to restrengthen into a
strong mid latitude cyclone over Wisconsin and Lake Superior,
pushing a cold front across the area from west to east on Wednesday.
Therefore, only expect highs in the low to mid 80s Wednesday with
westerly winds bringing in cooler, less humid air heading into
Wednesday night. Medium range ensemble guidance supports upper
troughing/northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc to close
out the work week. Confidence in the details is still fairly low,
but this generally looks cooler and drier at this time. 50s to low
60s for lows and upper 70s to mid 80s for highs are reasonable.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast
period. Isolated clouds this evening will dissipate after sunset,
with a clear sky overnight and surface winds becoming N to NE around
5 kts. On Sunday, high pressure at the surface will move into the
upper OH Valley resulting in an E to NE surface breeze up to 10 kts
along with a few high level cirrus clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...BJS
Long Term....EBW
Aviation.....TWF


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