Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 302339
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
539 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Well if you liked today... you`ll be delighted by tomorrow as
conditions will be very similar. For the rest of today, stratus
should continue to hang around the region but a peak or two of sun
is possible as some clearing has been noted in visible satellite
around 1:30 pm. This will keep temperatures chilly, and with weak
cold air advection continuing tonight, overnight lows will drop back
into the teens area wide. Another very weak disturbance is expected
to lift across the Permian Basin tonight which will help to increase
lift (albeit still fairly weak) within our saturated lower-levels of
the atmosphere. This will lead to a repeat of this morning with
light freezing drizzle and some ice pellets developing and moving
from southwest to northeast through the early morning hours. With
surface temperatures so cold once again, a light glazing of ice will
be possible on roadways and sidewalks so another Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued from 1 am until 10 am Tuesday area wide.
Precipitation will come to an end by mid-morning tomorrow however
cloud cover will once again stick around the region. This cloud
cover combined with surface high pressure settling over the forecast
area will keep temperatures well below average once again with most
locations only warming into the middle to upper 20s. /WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

The main concern in the long-term will remain the potential
for a wintry mix off and on through Thursday morning.

By the beginning of the long-term (late Tuesday), The upper low is
expected to be centered near Baja California, digging east-
southeast into northern Mexico. Ahead of this upper-low, mid-
level and low- level ascent will begin to increase over the
Permian Basin and into the southern South and Rolling Plains. This
will increase the chances of precipitation actually falling
(sleet & freezing rain) and not just drifting (freezing drizzle).
With the start of accumulating wintry precipitation, a Winter
Weather Watch has been issued for the southern Rolling Plains from
Tuesday evening through Thursday morning, as this is the area
that will see the largest accumulation of freezing rain/sleet. A
Winter Weather Advisory will most likely be needed for much of the
County Warning Area during this timeframe as well, but will hold
off on that for now. The precipitation will first expand into our
far southeast. As the precipitation expands back to the northwest
towards I-27/US-87, it will most likely become more of a mix of
freezing rain / sleet / snow. This is due to some better moisture
aloft, allowing for the formation and melting of snow as it falls.
High temperatures on Wednesday will only increase to near 32F
over the southern Rolling Plains. This will result in this area
getting a mix of rain/freezing rain. With temperatures being right
at freezing, not a lot of ice accumulation will happen during
this period, but not a lot of melting will happen either. Highs on
the Caprock will be in the mid-30s and 40s Wednesday afternoon,
giving this area a short break from the freezing drizzle.

Still questions in regard to the exact track strength of the upper-
level low/trough going into late Wednesday. The GFS opens the low
into a wave, where the ECMWF / Canadian keeps it as a low. If the
upper-low opens, it will become more progressive, ending
precipitation quicker. However, before it exits the area, there
are some signs that a deformation band will push over the
southeastern half of the area going into Thursday. This could be
the system`s last hurrah, as it will again increase lift over the
region. This will coincide with temperatures falling back into the
upper 20s therefore a return to wintry precipitation. This time
there may be some moisture aloft over the southeast as well,
resulting in a potential mix of freezing rain and sleet.

The upper low will exit the area late Thursday, bringing an end to
the precipitation over the CWA. Behind the upper-low, an upper-level
ridge will begin to move into the region, bringing 50s on Friday and
60s through the weekend. There may be another system push-through on
Sunday, bringing slightly cooler and breezy conditions on Sunday or
Monday. With the differences in guidance, we will keep the NBM
values for this part of the long-term. GKendrick

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Another round of light freezing drizzle is expected to develop
late tonight and last for a bit past sunrise Tuesday. This is most
likely at KLBB and KPVW where ceilings are expected to fall into
IFR category. Icing will remain a concern in the low clouds, and
these ceilings are expected to persist through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CST Tuesday for
TXZ021>044.

Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday
night for TXZ037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...07


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