Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 231838
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
238 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will continue to push south of our region as high
pressure builds into our area Wednesday through this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A cold front will remain situated to our south over the North
Carolina and the Virginia border. Scattered showers will
continue for areas southeast of the I-95 corridor. These showers
are expected to slowly diminish this evening as the main upper
level forcing associated with the 500mb trough shifts further to
our south. These showers could linger through early tomorrow
morning especially over southern Maryland. Clear skies over
northern Virginia and western Maryland may allow for some minor
destabilization. Models have between 100 and 300 CAPE along with
a trough axis moving over our region. Isolated to scattered
showers can`t be ruled over northern Virginia, Eastern WV
Panhandle and western MD due to a combination of an upper level
trough and terrain inducing storms. I have increased pops to
account for the formation of possible isolated to scattered
showers with a slight chance of thunder. Winds are expected
remain out of the N to NE with skies slowly clearing from the
west as the upper level trough axis continues to shift eastward.
Cooler conditions will move into our region with overnight
temps running in the low 50s in the higher elevations to mid 60s
along the I-95 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure will build into our region from the west. An
upper trough axis will slowly move across our region from the
west. North to northwesterly flow will continue to transport
into drier and cooler air into region which will lead to cooler
than normal temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Some
isolated showers can`t be ruled out over the higher elevations
due to the trough axis being overhead of our region but a
northerly flow should limit the area coverage. I have kept pops
in the 20s and should be limited to the afternoon periods and
the western part of our forecast area. A coastal low will form
off the frontal boundary to our south and move just off our
coast Wednesday afternoon. The tight pressure gradient from the
passing low may cause some stronger winds over our coastal areas
and eastern Maryland and northern VA.


On Thursday, the upper level trough axis will lift eastward out of
region and high pressure will remain over our region. Winds will be
light and variable mainly out of the north. Temperatures will remain
mild in the upper 70s to mid 80s with overnight temperatures
dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

The long term period will feature an extended period of dry
conditions, along with ample sunshine, low humidity, light winds,
and near normal temperatures.

Heights aloft will rise as high pressure builds overhead on Friday.
In the absence of any disturbances at mid-upper levels, this area of
high pressure will stay in place through the weekend, before
shifting just offshore on Monday. With high pressure in control,
quiet weather conditions are in the forecast. Temperatures will be
near normal, with highs predominantly in the 80s to near 90, and
lows mainly in the 60s.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A few showers will be possible for the CHO and MRB terminals
but VFR conditions are expected going through the rest of this
afternoon. Periods of MVFR conditions will be possible as the
clouds shift eastward out of the area. General clearing expected
through this evening with VFR conditions and light northerly
winds expected.

VFR conditions will dominant Wednesday through Thursday as high
pressure remains over our region.

VFR conditions will persist through the long term period with high
pressure in control.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds out of the north expected with showers over the southern
Chesapeake through early tomorrow morning. Sub-SCA conditions
expected

A coastal low will move along the eastern sea board on Wednesday
which may cause SCA conditions during the early morning through
afternoon periods. Sub-SCA conditions expected through the rest
of the week.

A prolonged stretch of precipitation free conditions and sub-SCA
level winds is expected this weekend into early next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KJP/JMG
MARINE...KJP/JMG



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