Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 200540

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.DISCUSSION... /issued 817 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021/

Now Tropical Depression Claudette continues to move northeast
over Alabama this evening. Showers have moved out of our forecast
area and we will be dry through Monday morning. Have made a few
adjustments to the forecast to bring it up to current trends. Next
chance of organized rainfall will be Monday afternoon as a front
moves through the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021/


Tropical Storm Claudette continues to track NNE this afternoon
bringing bands of heavy rainfall across Alabama, the Florida
Panhandle and West Georgia. A few of our NE Mississippi counties
are still receiving some rain from this system. Elsewhere, high
clouds and some mid-level Cu have developed keeping temperatures a
few degrees cooler than yesterday. Bumped down highs just a tad
to account for this. TS Claudette is expected to move more
NE this evening towards Georgia and the Carolinas. As a result
rain across NE Mississippi will gradually come to an end.

We could see some patchy fog overnight into early Sunday as areas
start to clear out across NE Mississippi. However, Sunday will
remain mostly dry as soundings indicate a nice subsidence
inversion over most of the area inhibiting any convective
development in the afternoon. Did maintain low PoPs across NE
Mississippi during the afternoon hours. Thankfully, Sunday will be
the last day of low to mid 90 temperatures at least for the next
few days.

On Monday, a large upper trough will amplify across the Central
U.S. At the surface, a low pressure system will develop near the
Great Lakes region along with an associated cold front. Warm
advection showers will be possible as early as Sunday night ahead
of the next system. Enhanced lift from a developing southwesterly
LLJ will support increasing rain chances on Monday as this front
approaches. The Storm Prediction Center currently has all of the
Mid- South in a Marginal Risk for severe storms on Monday. Rich
low- level moisture and diurnal heating will result in moderate
instability across the area. Latest guidance does show the best
deep layer shear lagging slightly behind. However, there may be
just enough shear to support organized convection along the
front. Will continue to mention damaging winds in the HWO. There
are still some slight timing differences regarding when the front
will be completely through the area. Generally speaking, rain
chances will gradually decrease overnight Monday into Tuesday as
drier air moves in behind the front.

It looks as though a nice mid-week cool down is in store for the
Mid-South! High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s
with mostly dry conditions. Overnight lows will generally be in
the 60s and mid to upper 50s on Wednesday morning. Late in the
week, upper ridging looks start building back up to our west,
resulting in temperatures warming back up.



06Z TAFs

Patchy fog may develop at TUP overnight producing temporary MVFR
conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail through
the period. Light SSW winds will increase to 7-12 kts on Sunday.



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