Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 091753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1153 AM CST Sun Dec 9 2018

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 533 AM CST Sun Dec 9 2018/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis early this morning places a surface
low near Tallahassee, Florida while GOES-16 Water Vapor Satellite
trends indicate an upper level low centered near southern sections
of Middle Tennessee. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D radar trends indicate
precipitation gradually beginning to diminish across the Mid-
South. As of 4 AM CST, temperatures remain in the middle to upper
30s across portions of Northeast Mississippi, upper 20s to around
30 degrees over Northeast Arkansas, and temperatures around
freezing or slightly above across the remainder of the Mid-South.

Precipitation types have remained a challenge into early this
morning as temperatures have been hovering around the lower 30s.
Short term model trends including Convective Allowing Model
Solutions (CAMs) indicate a diminishing precipitation trend this
morning. Any additional precipitation amounts are expected to be
light. Based on current trends will keep ongoing warnings and
advisories going until 9 AM CST unless trends suggest otherwise.
Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow should gradually taper off to
drizzle or freezing drizzle as moisture becomes more limited with
time this morning before ending.

Short term models indicate cooler and drier air will filter into
the Mid-South tonight into Tuesday. Long term models indicate
a mid level shortwave trough will move across portions of the
Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday with rain chances
anticipated to remain mainly north of the area during the day.
Rain chances are expected to return for Wednesday night into
Thursday as another upper level low develops in the Southern
Plains on Thursday and pushes into the Lower Mississippi Valley
for Friday into Saturday. Some differences remain with the track
of the upper level low with the GFS taking the low directly over
the Mid-South and the ECMWF along the Gulf Coast. At this time,
differences don`t remain great enough to make any significant
adjustments to precipitation chances during this period.



.AVIATION...18z TAF Cycle

As is often the case conditions are slow to improve in association
with upper level lows. Cigs remain IFR at MEM, TUP and MKL, but
have improved at JBR. As the low continues to track away from the
area, gradual improvement should continue this afternoon.
However, another low will dig in the Plains so at least MVFR cigs
will probably hang around through the night...JBR may be the
exception. The threat of light BR and FZRA should end quickly.
Winds will remain northerly 8-14kts this afternoon, around 5kt
overnight and tomorrow. All sites should be VFR by mid morning




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