Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 241529

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1029 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...New UPDATE...

Issued at 1020 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a decaying
MCS continues over east Arkansas and in the delta region south of
Memphis. Spin is evident on radar and satellite data, centered
just south of Stuttgart, AR. Increased pops slightly today based
on radar coverage and model trends. Redevelopment this afternoon
remains uncertain as an outflow boundary from ongoing storms could
help stabilize portions of northwest Mississippi, west Tennessee,
mainly near the Mississippi River and the Missouri Bootheel.
Model instability is marginal, and tapers off quickly from west to
east across the CWA due to lower dew points near the Tennessee
River and Alabama State line. Afternoon temperatures should be
slightly cooler than yesterday due to precipitation and cloud
cover. Expect highs in the low to middle 80s, coolest west of the
Mississippi River.



Issued at 412 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today mainly
along and west of the Mississippi River. More widespread activity
will occur late tonight as a cold front pushes south. Lingering
showers will continue on Monday along and south of the I-40
corridor. Mainly dry conditions are expected across the Mid-South
for next week. Temperatures will remain above normal with
readings in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s.


(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Temperatures range from the upper 50s near the Tennessee River to
the lower 70s along and west of the Mississippi River. Latest GOES
East Nighttime Microphysics RGB channel shows overcast skies over
much of the state of Arkansas associated with a mature MCS. The
latest KNQA radar scan shows weakening showers and thunderstorms
approaching eastern Arkansas. This activity is expected to
continue a weakening trend and potentially push an outflow into
eastern Arkansas by mid morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be mainly confined to areas along and west of
the Mississippi River through this afternoon.

By this evening, a fast-moving shortwave, currently located over
the Four Corners Region, will translate eastward and into the
Mid-South. This will help push a weak cold front into the area
and spawn showers and thunderstorms late tonight. The bulk of the
activity is expected to affect areas along and south of I-40
through Monday morning. Activity will be confined to areas south
of I-40 by Monday afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave
pushes east of the region. Tuesday looks mostly dry with highs in
the mid 80s.

An upper level low will swing southeast from the upper Midwest
and into the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday. This system will
impinge on the northeastern portion of the forecast area through
Thursday. Expect increased cloud cover and scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day across portions of the Missouri
Bootheel and west Tennessee. The rest of the area should remain
mostly dry through this period.

An anomalous 595dam ridge will build into the region on Friday
and persist through the weekend. This will translate to rain-free
and warmer than normal conditions for Saturday and Sunday. Dry
and warm weather looks to persist in the long-term forecast as
global models continue to advertise an Omega Block setting up
early next week.



(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

A system of widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms is
currently making its way eastward from central AR. Radar trends
depict a boundary west of the MS River hindering the downstream
development of showers and thunderstorms, but a few showers may
affect JBR over the next few hours. A decaying MCS will start to
move in shortly after midnight, most likely missing MKL but
intermittently impacting all other sites with showers and/or
isolated thunderstorms. Winds should stay fairly light and vary
between northeasterly and southeasterly through the period.





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