Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 190253 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
953 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.UPDATE...
Midevening GOES IR imagery showed a midlevel dry slot extending
north along the MS River. At the surface, KNQA radar and surface
obs showed a cold front moving southeast through northwest MS, the
Memphis metro and northwest TN. Numerous post-frontal showers
behind this cold front. Dual-pol CC product showed 40+ dBZ echoes
more than 50 miles out to be associated with melting snow aloft,
not moderate rainfall.

Rainfall rates are expected to remain light as wrap-around post-
frontal showers move into the Midsouth. Flash Flood Watch was
cancelled earlier this evening, and forecast remains on track.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/

UPDATE...
Updated to include 00Z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, showers are occurring over much of the Mid-South with a
few isolated thunderstorms occurring across North Mississippi.
Temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s across much of the area
with the exception of areas of West Tennessee near the Tennessee
River and Northeast Mississippi where temperatures are in the
lower to mid 70s.

Severe thunderstorms are occurring across Central Mississippi
ahead a SFC low pressure system. Some of these thunderstorms may
track northward into Northeast Mississippi later this afternoon
into the early evening. Best chances will be in locations south of
a Water Valley, MS to Savannah, TN line where temperatures are in
the 70s and instability is the greatest. Damaging winds and flash
flooding will be the main threats with a brief tornado being a
secondary threat.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire CWA through
midnight. Portions of Eastern Arkansas have already seen up to 2
inches of rain. Showers will continue through the evening as the
SFC low tracks into the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, thunderstorms
will bring heavy rainfall into areas of North Mississippi and
Southwest Tennessee.

Friday will be similar to last Sunday and will be chilly with
periods of showers and drizzle due to the upper level low tracking
over the region. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s across the
area. The drizzle and showers will continue into Friday Night as
the upper low slowly moves east. Clearing may begin to occur late
which will allow lows to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Tranquil weather will occur over the weekend into early next week
as upper ridging will occur over the area. Saturday will remain
below normal with highs in the 60s but by Sunday/Monday highs
will return to the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

Models are diverging on solutions for the low pressure system
next week. The ECMWF is much slower with timing than the GFS with
the Canadian somewhere in between. Tried to lean toward the
Canadian solution with the forecast with chances for rain
beginning Tuesday Night continuing through Thursday.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

Rain associated with a convective complex will gradually diminish
across sites tonight. However, additional moisture behind a cold
front will result in additional shra/vcsh tonight into Friday.
Guidance not handling winds at MEM initially at the moment due to
a convective feature producing gusty E/ESE winds. These winds
should gradually shift NW/N over the next hour. Gusty N/NW winds
expected over the area this evening and gradually diminishing
somewhat overnight into Friday. VFR conditions expected to
deteriorate to MVFR/IFR conditions behind the front with some
improvement to VFR conditions at MEM at the end of the period
Friday evening.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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