Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 302218
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
218 PM PST Mon Jan 30 2023

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through tomorrow night...Mild weather is
persisting across the forecast region in the wake of the weekend`s
cold air system. An upper level ridge is rebuilding over the
Pacific, preventing any impactful weather from approaching from
the west. Additionally, a weakening thermal trough will lead to
decreasing east winds.

An absence of cloud cover will contribute to another night of
cold temperatures. A Freeze Warning has been issued for coastal
areas approximately from Bandon and northward along the coast in
anticipation of these conditions. Other coastal areas could still
see temperatures in the mid-30s. Western inland areas are expected
to drop to the mid-20s, and eastern highlands could see
temperatures from the low teens down to single digits.

Currently, Tuesday and Wednesday are looking to stay in this
pattern, with the Pacific ridge staying firmly in place allowing
temperatures to rise gradually each day across this time period. An
upper level trough approaching Wednesday night may be the first
change in this pattern as south flow and overhead clouds increase.
Please see the long-term discussion for more information. -TAD

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...The axis of the upper ridge
then continues to shift east Thursday, and with the thermal trough
moving inland the day before the BL flow is steady, but light from
the south, becoming southwesterly up to 700 MB. This southerly flow
continues to feed moisture into the region becomes southerly up
through 700 MB. Models are showing a pressure gradient from the
southeast to the northwest, with the gradient increasing in the
Shasta Valley by late morning. The Redding to Medford pressure
gradient is now indicating near advisory winds in the Shasta valley,
with 700 MB winds indicating near advisory strength winds as well
over portions of the east side. As we get in the range of the higher
resolution models the upper trend in the winds may also increase,
with current models already trending upward in this time frame. This
first front is also indicating to have a weak to moderate
atmospheric river component and with the stronger southerly winds is
indicating as a heavier precipitation event on the southern coastal
ranges and northern California.

A showery pattern remains ahead of the next system moving in
Saturday evening into Sunday, and this system is showing stronger
and more prolonged southerly flow feeding low level moisture into
the region ahead of it. Upper level divergence is indicating
stronger today, combining with the region being in the left exit
region of the 125 KT jet to bring good upper dynamics that should
bring more of the moisture north of the Siskiyous and the Mt Shasta
region than indicated with Thursday`s system. The ECMWF and the GFS
also are in agreement with the contribution of a moderate
atmospheric river mid level moisture component. -Sven


&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue through the
TAF period for all terminals, with a dry air mass. -Sven

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Monday, January 30, 2023...Gusty north
winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas will persist into
this evening with the strongest winds and highest seas across the
outer waters south of Port Orford. Winds and seas will gradually
lower late this evening into Tuesday morning and seas will
transition to swell dominated. However, expect steep seas to linger
across the outer waters south of Cape Blanco through tonight.
Additionally, a continued cold air mass over the area will bring the
slight chance for freezing spray early Tuesday morning, mainly
across near-shore waters north of Cape Blanco.

A strong front will approach the waters Thursday and will bring a
chance (50-70%) for gales and very steep seas to the waters, with
highest chances across the waters beyond 10 nm from shore. Behind
this front, west-southwest swell will build into the waters Thursday
night into Friday. Another strong front is possible on Saturday. -CC


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PST Monday, January 30,
2023...Increasing long period west swell will increase the risk of
sneaker waves this evening through Tuesday morning. Sneaker waves
produce unusually high run up on beaches when compared to other
observed waves. Sneaker waves can sweep up the beach without warning
and knock unsuspecting people over and pull them out to sea. Shock
and hypothermia can occur quickly in the cold Pacific waters. In
addition, logs and other debris can be lifted and carried by the
waves, crushing or entrapping unsuspecting victims underneath. If
you plan to be at the beach, please observe the ocean from a safe
distance and stay off logs and/or debris. Also, remember, never turn
your back on the ocean! -CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 PM PST this evening through
     Tuesday morning for ORZ021-022.

     Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Tuesday for
     ORZ021.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 PM PST this
     evening through Tuesday morning for PZZ350-356.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ376.

&&

$$


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