Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 162142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
242 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...Stable condition will be present in northwest flow
through Saturday. The tail end of a weak front brings light
showers to much of the coast late Wednesday, moving inland
Wednesday night, bringing a slight chance of showers inland to
the Cascades and down to the Umpqua Divide Thursday morning.
Morning cloud cover and northerly flow, except for the southern
coast where an offshore component will bring a weak Chetco
effect, will keep temperature below normal through friday.

Offshore flow spreads across the east side Friday night as a weak
ridge builds over the region and a thermal trough deepens and
spreads up the coast. This will bring temperatures to above normal
for the first time since near the beginning of July Saturday.
A turn to a more southerly flow starts to feed moisture into the
region with increased mid level moisture wrapping around the low
in the great basin Saturday evening. This will bring an area of
weak instability from the Crater lake area and to the southeast
Sunday afternoon, and have added a slight chance of thunderstorms
to that area. However, confidence if low at this time. This area
of instability remains over the northern Cascades early next week,
but do not have enough confidence to add any chance of
thunderstorms at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 16/12Z TAFS...Along the coast and over the
coastal waters...Areas of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will redevelop
this evening, persisting into Wednesday morning. Over the
remainder of the area, VFR conditions will prevail through
Wednesday morning. -Spilde/Sven


.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday 16 July 2019...A thermal
trough will develop near the coast today, weaken Wednesday then
strengthen Thursday into Friday. Conditions will be hazardous to
small craft due to north winds and steep, choppy seas from Gold
Beach southward this afternoon into Wednesday morning. Advisory
conditions will likely return over a broader portion of the waters
Thursday afternoon into Friday evening, with gales and very steep
hazardous seas possible south of Gold Beach.


.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday 16 July 2019...Cool
conditions with breezy afternoon winds continue under the general
upper troughing regime in the Pacific Northwest. A thermal trough
will develop Thursday into Friday, and some northeast winds will
begin to affect the forecast area, especially in Western Siskiyou
County and the Coast Range in Curry County. Temperatures will trend
higher to above normal values by the weekend, and enough moisture
could arrive by Sunday afternoon to bring a slight chance of
thunderstorms to areas east of the Cascades. Keene




Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for PZZ356-376.


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