693
FXUS66 KMFR 261159
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
359 AM PST Sun Jan 26 2025

.DISCUSSION...With the exception of some patchy low clouds north
of Chemult, skies are clear across the region. Offshore
(northeast to east) flow continues this morning, bringing breezy
to gusty winds to the ridges as well as valleys that are aligned
with this flow. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fairly common across the
upper slopes and ridges, with gusts around 15 to 20 mph for the
lower elevations. Given the continued weakening trend expected
today, have gone ahead and cancelled the wind advisory early this
morning. There may be some isolated areas that briefly reach 40
mph through the early morning, but not widespread enough to
warrant keeping the advisory up. On the other hand, these winds,
combined with cold temperatures, are resulting in some frigid wind
chills near to several degrees below zero east of the Cascades
with values in the teens and low 20s for areas west of the
Cascades. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through this
morning for the whole region. Cold temperatures extend down to the
coast as well, with widespread frost and freeze conditions
expected north of Port Orford (downslope winds and a Chetco effect
will keep temperatures slightly warmer to the south). A Freeze
Warning remains in effect and details on these Advisories and
Warnings can be found at PDXNPWMFR.

Another cold and breezy day is expected today, though winds will be
weaker compared to yesterday`s readings. Temperatures will trend
slightly warmer overnight tonight, but only by a few degrees. With
breezy winds expected to continue, we anticipate another cold night
tonight with low enough wind chill values to continue the Cold
Weather Advisory for most of the region through Monday morning.
Again, details can be found at NPWMFR. Additionally, freezing
temperatures are expected again along the immediate coast north of
Port Orford, so the Freeze Warning has been extended through Monday
morning as well.

High pressure returns for the first part of the week, and winds will
finally become light again across the region on Monday. We`ll likely
see the return of strong valley inversions and the stagnant air
pattern, but with the recent and current drying period in the low
levels, fog should be less extensive, but trapped pollutants will
likely be a concern. We`ll evaluate the need for another Air
Stagnation Advisory over the coming days. Low temperatures will
moderate slightly over the first half of next week, but remain well
below normal while afternoon highs will be seasonable. Freezing
temperatures are forecast again for Monday night/Tuesday morning
along the immediate coast, so we may need another Freeze Warning for
that time period. Tuesday night onward, temperatures trend warmer by
a few degrees each night until the upcoming pattern change late in
the week.

A return to wet weather is expected late in the week, with ensemble
suites in good agreement on bringing rain into the area by Thursday
night amidst a long awaited return to westerly flow. As this is the
first system attempting to push in to the ridge after a prolonged
dry period, precipitation amounts will likely be on the lighter
side. A stronger, colder system is possible late weekend/early the
following week (with some hints of potential lower elevation snow),
with the longer range guidance suggesting a continued active,
westerly flow pattern into February. -BPN/BR-y

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z TAFS...VFR conditions will continue through the
TAF period. The air is pretty dry out there right now due to the
east winds. Therefore, the chance of LIFR visibilities in the Umpqua
valley is low this morning

Otherwise, sporadic gusty, strong east to northeast low level winds
will continue into Sunday morning.
-Smith

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM Sunday, January 26, 2025...

Northerly winds will continue to weaken into today with steep seas
persisting through the evening. Wave heights will remain around 10
feet with period 8 seconds or less. Lower wave heights around 3 to 4
feet are anticipated on Monday and will persist for much of the
week. Another system will bring in a new swell group around Friday
evening. This system could be powerful with strong southerly winds.
-Smith

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     ORZ021>031.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for ORZ021.

CA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     CAZ080>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$

MNF/CZS