Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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091
FXUS63 KMKX 231426
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
926 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.UPDATE...Clearing trend underway as northwest cwa has become
sunny. Pressure gradient to slacken with time as winds turn
onshore this afternoon.

PC

&&

.MARINE...Low pressure over northeast lower Michigan will continue
to pull into Ontario today. Pressure gradient will slacken especially
over the southern lake. Winds will turn onshore in the nearshore
waters while the gradient lingers longer in the northern reaches
of the lake. Will let small craft advisory expire naturally at
15z.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 600 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019)

UPDATE...

Area of showers have moved east of the area, as the 500 mb
shortwave trough moves east across the region. Expect low clouds
to linger for a time this morning, before mixing out by early to
middle afternoon. Gusty north northwest winds into this morning
will gradually weaken this afternoon. Lake breeze with east winds
is expected by middle afternoon.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Area of showers have moved east of the terminals. Low clouds with
ceilings down to 1000 feet or so should linger for a time this
morning, before gradually mixing out by early to middle
afternoon.

Gusty north northwest winds into this morning should weaken this
afternoon, becoming light tonight. Winds will shift onshore by
mid afternoon near Lake Michigan, including Milwaukee and
Kenosha. Mostly clear skies are then expected tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 333 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Area of showers associated with mid-level differential cyclonic
vorticity advection will gradually push east across and east of
the forecast area early this morning. This trend is supported by
the synoptic models and CAMs. It should exit the eastern areas by
12Z this morning.

Area of low clouds should linger for a time this morning, as
modest cold air advection on gusty north northwest winds brings
drier air into the area. This should help scatter out the low
clouds this afternoon. Winds should become less gusty this
afternoon as well.

High pressure moving into and through the region tonight will
bring mostly clear skies. Highs today should reach the middle 60s
inland, given sunshine and good mixing this afternoon. Winds will
turn onshore by middle afternoon near Lake Michigan, cooling
temperatures into the 50s in those areas. Lows tonight should drop
into the upper 30s east to lower 40s west, with light winds and
clear skies expected.

LONG TERM...

Wednesday/Wednesday Night...Forecast Confidence High...

High pressure will be overhead to start the day on Wednesday, with
southwesterly winds increasing through the day as the high begins
to push east of the area. Temperatures on Wednesday look to warm
to around 70 degrees.

Thursday and Friday...Forecast Confidence Moderate to High...

A shortwave aloft and associated cold front will approach the area
on Thursday morning, with the front sweeping across the area
during the day. There are still some sizable discrepancies within
the guidance as to how widespread precipitation will be with this
front. At least a few showers seem likely, though coverage may be
somewhat sparse. Intensity should be light, given limited moisture
return ahead of the frontal passage. Despite the chance for rain,
highs on Thursday should still reach the mid to upper 60s.
Somewhat cooler temperatures then build into the area for Friday,
with highs in the low 60s.

Saturday through the Middle of Next Week...Forecast Confidence
Moderate...

Strong low pressure is then expected to develop across the central
Plains and move through the region on Saturday. Confidence is
increasing in precipitation chances, though there is still
considerable uncertainty with the track of the surface low. A more
southerly solution would result in cold, windy, rainy conditions
on Saturday, with a brisk east wind off of Lake Michigan. A more
southerly solution would bring somewhat warmer temperatures and
probably a few thunderstorms along with the rain. The 00Z guidance
suite seems to be converging on a more southerly solution, though
there`s still plenty of time for things to change.

We`ll likely get a brief break in the rain behind the Saturday
system, but most of next week continues to look quite active, as a
series of shortwaves ripple through quasi-zonal flow aloft. Given
the orientation of the upper level flow, we will need to be
mindful of the potential for any fronts stalling across the
region, and the associated threat for heavy rain.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATES)...

Area of showers will move east of the terminals by 12Z this
morning, with some visibility values down to 4 to 5 miles. Low
clouds with ceilings down to 500 feet or so should linger for a
time this morning, before gradually mixing out by early to middle
afternoon.

Gusty north northwest winds into this morning should weaken this
afternoon, becoming light tonight. Winds will shift onshore by
mid afternoon near Lake Michigan, including Milwaukee and
Kenosha. Mostly clear skies are then expected tonight.

MARINE...

Nearshore Waters...

Small Craft Advisory continues until 15Z this morning across the
nearshore waters. Gusty north to northwest winds are expected into
the middle morning hours, before weakening. Waves of 2 to 4 feet
are expected. The winds should shift to the east by middle
afternoon with the lake breeze.

Light winds and waves are then expected tonight into Wednesday
morning, lingering into Wednesday night. West to northwest winds
Friday may reach Small Craft Advisory levels.

Open Waters...

Gusty north to northwest winds up to 30 knots are expected into
this morning. These winds should weaken this afternoon into
tonight, with high pressure moving across the region. Gusty north
winds may develop Friday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Wednesday through Monday...Boxell



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