Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 171930
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
230 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight Through Tuesday Night...Forecast Confidence is Medium to
High.

A trough along the MN/Canada border will combine with a shortwave
moving out of NE and push a frontal boundary towards the area.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop off to the
west and near the area late tonight. However, high pressure to our
NE will keep a cool NE flow in place and likely limit just how far
east some of these showers and storms make it. Most models have
most of these decaying by the time they enter WI but will keep a
sliver of pops in across the west overnight. The other concern for
tonight is that if we are able to clear out this evening,
dewpoint depressions will be small and with light winds it`s
possible patchy fog could develop.

For Tuesday the frontal boundary nudges into our area in response
to as system moving through northern WI. In addition to that
feature, a developing low across NE will strengthen the WAA and
convergence along this frontal boundary in IA. So we may see
additional showers/storms develop in IA Tuesday afternoon with
these clipping our western zones. Winds briefly shift to the south
ahead of the front and should allow for better mixing and temps
warm into the mid to upper 70s. As the trough/shortwave move
through, lapse rates aloft steepen enough that tall skinny CAPE
develops over the western portions of the area. A jet streak
passes over northern WI and will allow for an increase in shear to
30-35 kts during the afternoon and it`s not out of the question
that an isolated stronger storm develops. However, with the better
forcing confined to the north of the area, think storms will be
limited.

.LONG TERM...

Wednesday through Thursday...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Models have trended southerly with the track of the system
on Wednesday, which may keep much of the precip to our south.
Another factor that could further help to limit precip chances
across southern WI is high pressure developing to our north. As
the pressure gradient increases between these two systems, the
northerly winds will advect in drier air. Sticking with the trend
in the models and have started to reduce Pops for Wed/Thu
timeframe. One thing that may accompany the breezy N/NW winds
during this period is some minor near shore flooding as a result
of the higher lake levels.

Friday through Sunday...Forecast Confidence is Low to Medium...

We may finally be in for a pattern change as we head into the
weekend. Guidance is showing a developing ridge over the central
and eastern portions of the U.S. This would lead to more south to
southwesterly flow and warmer temperatures with highs in the upper
70s to even a few 80s near the IL border. Models are struggling
with the timing of any systems that move up the western side of
the ridge and into the area. The southerly flow will bring deeper
moisture northward leading to increased thunderstorm chances but
due to the lingering uncertainty in the timing and track of
systems have kept PoPs on the low side.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

The MVFR cigs have started to scatter out and this should continue
into the evening hours. However, a weak system approaching the
area tonight and lingering moisture in the lower levels could
bring a return of the MVFR cigs early Tuesday morning. A frontal
boundary moving through on Tuesday could generate an isolated
thunderstorm during the afternoon but confidence in any of these
impacting the terminals is low. Winds start to turn to the south
ahead of this boundary on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and waves are expected through Tuesday as high
pressure remains in control. A frontal boundary moves into the
area on Tuesday with slight chances for showers and storms and
winds could briefly turn to the south ahead of the front.

By Wednesday a developing system will pass south of the area and
bring an increase in northerly winds with gusts of 15 to 20
knots possible. The stronger winds should continue for Thursday
before starting to taper off Friday as high pressure moves across
the area.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Stumpf
Tuesday Night through Monday...Stumpf


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