Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 271733
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1133 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

VFR conditions prevail through the period with generally light
winds. Gusty conditions possible by Saturday afternoon, especially
along the coast. 07/mb

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 534 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023/

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the forecast
period. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 454 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday Night)
Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Surface high pressure continues to build eastward across the Gulf
Coast states early this morning. Temperatures are ranging in the
upper 20s to around the freezing mark across much of southeast MS
and interior southwest AL as of 4 AM CST, and a little warmer in the
mid 30s to around 40 degrees across the remainder of south central
AL and the western FL panhandle. The surface high will settle over
our forecast area today before shifting to our east across the
southeastern U.S. tonight. Dry weather conditions will continue
through tonight with occasional high clouds spreading overhead.
Temperatures will remain below normal today with highs once again
ranging from the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Lows tonight may be a
few degrees warmer, but still chilly in the lower to mid 30s over
interior areas along and north of the I-10 corridor and in the upper
30s to mid 40s along the immediate coast.

A general west-southwest flow pattern aloft will continue into
Saturday with high cloudiness gradually thickening through the day.
Precipitable water values will be on the increase along with
favorable ascent from southeast TX and into the Mississippi Valley
region by Saturday night as a series of shortwave impulses propagate
over this region along with increasing difluence within the
southwest flow. Isolated rain showers may develop late Saturday
night across far western and northwestern portions of our forecast
area, but the better rain chances won`t arrive until Sunday morning.
Highs on Saturday are forecast to range from 60-65 degrees, while
lows Saturday night range from around 40 to the mid 40s over
interior portions of the western FL panhandle and into south central
and interior southwest AL (these areas will still be more under the
influence of the surface ridge) and generally in the mid 40s to
lower 50s across southeast MS and into coastal portions of southwest
AL and the western FL panhandle. /21

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Heavy rainfall expected Sunday with unsettled weather continuing
into the middle of next week. A shortwave trough moves across the
region Sunday afternoon and evening accompanied by a weak surface
low/trough, serving as our first system of interest. A series of
shortwaves begin transiting the south- central into eastern U.S.
by the middle into latter part of next week while upper level
ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico.

The first system of interest on Sunday will serve as a heavy rain
producer for the region. Upper level difluence will increase by
Sunday afternoon and evening as the trough moves across the area,
serving as our source of lift. Heavy rainfall will likely result
as strong warm air advection continues and overrunning
precipitation occurs. Who sees the heaviest rainfall is still
uncertain as that will be determined by the warm front positioning,
however it does appear that a widespread 1 to 2 inches is likely
at this juncture. In addition to the heavy rainfall and localized
flash flooding threat, there remains a chance that the synoptic
warm front manages to push onshore prior to the surface low/trough
progressing east across the area. As usual, how far inland the
warm sector can get is anyones guess at this point, but the
northernmost limit would likely be coastal counties of Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle such as the NAM 3km suggests. In the warm
sector, adequate shear upwards of 50 to 60kts with moderately
curved, elongated hodographs would support severe weather
potential when coupled with 500 to 1,000j/kg of SBCAPE and MLCAPE.
With all that said, the caveat remains how far does the warm
sector get onshore and the quality of low level moisture return
(mid 60`s like global models advertise versus upper 60`s surface
dewpoints like the NAM 3km advertises). At this point it`s too
early to really go into any details until we get within range of
other CAM guidance, but certainly something to keep an eye on as
we move forward in time.

Beyond Sunday we should see a break from impactful weather at
least Monday into Tuesday with only a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms possible each day. Our next system to keep an eye
on will be towards the middle of next week as shortwave trough
begins to progress across the south-central U.S. There remains
timing and trough placement discrepancies amongst the global
guidance on this feature, but a return to stormy weather can be
expected by middle to late next week.

Forecast temperatures for Sunday will be only in the lower 60`s
over interior southwestern AL while areas nearer the coast will be
up around 70. A steady warming trend will occur into the middle
of the week with highs likely reaching the lower to middle 70`s
for areas southeast of the I-65 corridor by Tuesday and Wednesday
with middle to upper 60`s elsewhere. Lows follow suit becoming
upper 50`s to lower 60`s by Monday into Tuesday nights, followed
by a cooling trend late week depending on timing of the next cold
front passage. MM/25

MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Offshore flow has strengthened over the coastal Gulf waters and
small craft operators will need to exercise caution through the
early morning hours. Winds otherwise become lighter by this
afternoon into this evening as high pressure builds over the marine
area. Southeasterly flow will increase Saturday into Sunday ahead of
the next approaching system. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      36  63  50  68  57  71  57  73 /   0   0  10  90  60  20  10  20
Pensacola   40  62  53  69  60  72  59  72 /   0   0  10  80  70  20   0  20
Destin      44  63  56  70  63  74  62  73 /   0   0   0  80  80  20   0  20
Evergreen   31  62  43  67  54  70  54  71 /   0   0  10  90  70  20  20  30
Waynesboro  32  64  46  64  54  66  52  66 /   0   0  10  90  60  20  20  40
Camden      31  62  43  62  52  65  52  67 /   0   0  10  90  70  20  20  40
Crestview   31  63  44  70  57  74  56  75 /   0   0   0  80  80  20   0  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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