Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 222030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
430 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 428 PM EDT MON APR 22 2019

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from
southern Manitoba through the upper Mississippi Valley. A prominent
shortwave trough over northeast IA was lifting slowly to the
northeast. At the surface, low pressure was located over northeast
IA with a warm front to the northeast through central WI. Strong
800-600 mb fgen and associated upper level div with the right
entrance of the 250-300 mb jet through nrn Ontario supported an
area of light to moderate rain from western WI into wrn Upper

Late this afternoon into tonight, although the stronger fgen over
the west is expected to lift off to the northeast and weaken this
evening, increasing 700-300 qvector conv ahead of the shrtwv should
still maintain the area of rain as it slides to the east through
Upper Michigan. Upslope northeast flow into north central Upper
Michigan should also help to boost rainfall amounts. With additional
QPF in the 0.35-0.75 inch range along with continued snowmelt
runoff, the Flood Watch and ESF highlighting lingering flood
risks were maintained. Locally dense fog in upslope flow locations
north should also diminish as the rain moves in this evening and
drier air with greater mixing takes over late.

Tuesday, mid level and sfc ridging will move in with clouds clearing
from west to east in the morning but may linger a bit longer north
central where upslope flow continues. Even with afternoon sunshine,
northerly winds will keep highs in the 40s north while reading
climb into the lower to mid 50s south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT MON APR 22 2019

An active pattern through the middle/end of this week and through
the weekend will bring additional chance for precipitation,
especially this weekend. It isn`t out of the question that we could
see snow return to the Upper Peninsula this weekend; however, this
is highly dependent on how the system evolves as it tracks across
the region and how much cold air is drawn into the system.

Ahead of the first shortwave expected towards the middle of the
week, Wednesday morning will be rather chilly but temperatures
should rebound nicely into the 60s during the day. Shortwave energy
will track along the US/Canadian border gradually pushing a weak
cold front across the Upper Peninsula late Wednesday/Wednesday
night. Ahead of the front, warm and breezy conditions will push us
back towards elevated fire weather conditions. However, the
combination of recent rainfall and moisture/return flow bumping RHs
up into the 30-40% range, we may not quite reach the elevated

Wednesday afternoon could see some rain shower activity with warm
air advection, but not really impressive with precipitation chances
until the main front arrives and moisture transport increases along
and ahead of the front Wednesday night into Thursday. As the front
clears the south central and far eastern parts of Upper Michigan
Thursday afternoon, a few models are hinting at some elevated
instability. Wasn`t enough to put thunder in the forecast, but
certainly not out of the question to hear a few rumbles of Thunder
across the south central on Thursday. Elsewhere, during the day on
Thursday conditions will dry out.

For the end of the work week, we will cool down and dry out.
However, a stronger storm quickly developing in the lee of the
Rockies and tracking towards the Great Lakes region will bring
return chances for precipitation Saturday into Sunday. While the
system will be quick-moving, the GFS/Canadian hint towards rapid-
intensification as it tracks towards and across the Upper Peninsula
due to a much stronger shortwave aloft compared to the ECMWF. The
stronger model solutions usher in much more widespread precipitation
and better chance for light snow Saturday night/Sunday morning. Will
be interesting to see how the models continue to trend with this
system over the up and coming days. Certainly a time period work
keeping a close eye on.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 147 PM EDT MON APR 22 2019

IFR/LIFR conditions will persist at IWD and SAW under occasional
rain into this evening. Although northeast winds are not as
favorable for lower conditions at CMX, expect cigs to lower with
more persistent rain. Conditions should improve to MVFR at IWD
and CMX late tonight and at SAW Tuesday morning.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 428 PM EDT MON APR 22 2019

Northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots are expected on the western end of
Lake Superior this evening with north winds 20 to 25 knots into
central Lake Superior tonight and to 30 knots over the east half
late tonight into Tuesday  as low pressure lifts northeast from IA
toward Quebec. Otherwise, a quiet stretch of weather will continue
from midweek on as winds remain below at or below 20 knots.

Upper Michigan...
  Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for MIZ001>005-009-010-084.

Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Ritzman
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