Text Products for AFD Issued by MQT

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 310001
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
701 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon and evening)
Issued at 102 PM EST MON JAN 30 2023

For those outside of the western and west-northwestern wind lake
effect snow belts, its been a mostly sunny day so far. The ample
sunshine didn`t do much to warm the region though from its cold
start, and the west has struggled to climb above zero while the east
has climbed into the low teens.

The snow belts though, have seen persistent lake effect snow showers
and cloud cover. These showers in the west are easiest to pick out
in GOES satellite imagery and extend from the Porkies northward. The
DLH radar shows a dominate band emanating out of the DLH harbor
that`s streaming across the Apostles and into northern Ontonagon
County. With the added terrain influence, areas from Mass City
northward toward South Range are likely seeing moderate to heavy
snow. North of there, KCMX has reported visibilities of 1/2 or 1/4
mile for most of the day, indicating moderate or heavy snow showers
or blowing snow. Webcams going up the Spine into Copper Harbor all
show periodic snow showers and areas of low visibilities. CAMS more
or less show these showers continuing through the afternoon and into
the evening hours before southeasterly flow beings to push things
northward. Opted to extend the Winter Weather Advisory for northern
Houghton and Keweenaw counties through 6z which lines up with CAM
consensus for shower activity moving into Lake Superior.

MQT radar has been able to see a good bit of the dominate snow band
stretching across Lake Superior that`s been dancing southeastward
down into eastern Alger and northern Luce counties. Southwesterly
flow should work to improve conditions this afternoon and evening,
but areas near Grand Marais and north of Pine Stump Junction should
continue to expect persistent snow shower activity until this
happens. Reissued a Special Weather Statement for Alger for these
hazardous conditions and opted to let the going Winter Weather
Advisory for Luce to play out for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM EST MON JAN 30 2023

Expect very cold temps tonight over the interior areas as clear
skies remain over all but the Keweenaw and near Whitefish Bay, where
some LES looks to continue until the pre-dawn hours Tuesday morning.
With ensemble guidance hinting at temps in at least the 10th
percentile to climatology, snow cover remaining across most of the
area, and clear skies, decided to go with the NBM10th percentile
lows tonight for all but the Keweenaw and near Whitefish Point;
thinking that it is within the realm of possibility for most of the
area to have lows in the negative teens, with some spots in the
interior west possibly getting into the low negative 20s. Therefore,
a Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for Gogebic, Ontonagon, Iron,
southern Houghton, Marquette, Dickinson, northern Schoolcraft, and
Luce counties tonight into Tuesday morning, as wind chills of -25 to
-35 could be seen, allowing frostbite to set in within 30 minutes.
As for the Keweenaw and near Whitefish Point, expect an additional 1
to 3 inches of dry, fluffy snow before the LES shifts north out of
the UP late tonight.

Expect the LES to remain offshore for the most part Tuesday into
early Tuesday evening as winds remain SW`rly. However, despite the
SW winds, don`t expect temps to warm up too much Tuesday as highs
are only projected to get into the mid teens across the area. As a
weak shortwave low moves through Lake Superior Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning, expect winds to converge over the Keweenaw
Peninsula. The HREF 12z guidance for 1/30 is currently suggesting
that snowfall rates of 1"/hr+ could be seen at times, with some
spots locally seeing a foot or more by Wednesday morning. Some
winter weather headlines may be needed for this convergent band,
provided that model guidance does not trend away from this solution.
As the shortwave low leaves the lake into Canada by Wednesday
afternoon, expect the convergent LES to die-off over the Keweenaw,
although some light LES could continue into Wednesday evening.
Elsewhere over the UP, expect mid-level cloud cover to limit highs
to only the mid-teens to low 20s.

Our next shot for mentionable snowfall occurs Thursday when a
Manitoba Mauler drops down over Lake Superior and reinvigorates LES
over the NW snow belts. With some strong CAA expected with the
system`s passing, some blustery winds could create some patches of
blowing snow across the NW snow belts. However, as we move into
Thursday night, expect LES and winds to quickly lighten up, with
high pressure ridging moving in from the west by Friday. This ridge
should give us a quick break from snowfall. With very cold Arctic
air moving over us behind the system, highs Friday may only remain
in the single positive digits. Meanwhile, low temps Thursday and
Friday nights may get down into the negative single digits.

Another shot of snowfall looks possible sometime this weekend as a
system passes through the area. From this upcoming weekend and
beyond, expect temps to become above normal again as the troughing
pattern bringing us the Arctic air moves eastward.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 701 PM EST MON JAN 30 2023

Airport minimums will continue at CMX this evening as persistent
lake effect snow showers impact the Keweenaw Peninsula.  Some
improvement to MVFR is possible tonight, but that is a low
confidence forecast at this point.  In addition, westerly winds will
remain gusty at CMX with sustained speeds in the 12 to 14 kt range,
gusting to 24 kts.  Periods of blowing snow will reduce
visibilities. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail at IWD and SAW.

&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 410 PM EST MON JAN 30 2023

WNW to WSW winds of 25 to 30 knots with a few gale force gusts up to
35 knots possible continue across Lake Superior tonight into
Tuesday. In addition, heavy freezing spray is still expected across
the lake, although it slowly dies away Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening. Likewise, after a shortwave passes over Lake
Superior Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, expect winds to calm
down. However, when a Manitoba Mauler drops down and moves through
the lake Wednesday night and Thursday, expect NW winds to pick up to
30 to gales up to 40 knots. Due to the vigorous CAA behind the
system, expect heavy freezing spray to return Thursday and remain
through Friday. Expect the winds to progressively weaken Thursday
night and Friday behind the system, eventually becoming 20 knots or
less Friday evening as ridging sets up over the area. Another system
moving through this weekend could bring S`rly winds of 25 to gales
to 35 knots ahead of it, with NW`rly winds of 20 to 30 knots
possibly behind it. In addition, some heavy freezing spray could be
seen ahead of the system this weekend.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ001-003.

  Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ002-004-009-
     010-084.

  Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ005-011.

  Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ007-085.

Lake Superior...
  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     LSZ241>244-249>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
