594
FXUS65 KMSO 161833
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1233 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...A trough of low pressure is seen in GOES Water Vapor
imagery this afternoon across British Columbia. As the trough
continues to approach and replace the existing ridge of high
pressure, the gradient will increase, giving us higher confidence
for west-southwest winds of 20-40 mph range, with locally higher
gusts in northwest Montana mountain areas through this evening.

The aforementioned trough and associated surface cold front will
move across the region tonight into Friday. Additional wind
advisories have been issued for the Missoula/Bitterroot valley,
Lemhi County, ID, and Butte/Blackfoot region, where frequent gusts
of 40 mph or greater are expected by Friday afternoon. As the
atmosphere destabilizes following the trough passage, convective
showers, including isolated thunderstorms will develop, increasing
the risk of isolated wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. NBM 24-hr
max wind gusts probabilities for 50 mph or greater highlight the
I-90 corridor north of Butte to Garrison Junction and the mountain
areas across west-central MT as the primary areas of concern,
with probabilities in the 50-80% range.

Saturday will provide a brief break in between weather systems,
before the next Pacific system drops down from the northwest on
Sunday. Ensemble guidance suggests additional Pacific systems will
move across the region early next week. Stay tuned for further
details in the coming days! /Lukinbeal

&&

.AVIATION...Southwest-west wind gusts of 20-30kts will continue
through 17/0200-0400Z across the Northern Rockies as the pressure
gradient tightens with an approaching trough of low pressure
moving into British Columbia. A pacific cold frontal passage is
expected tonight into Friday morning, with a line of showers and
lower ceilings (around 5000 ft AGL) overnight into Friday morning.
Westerly winds will once again ramp up by late Friday morning
following the frontal passage, with gusts of 25-40kts. /Lukinbeal

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for Butte/Blackfoot
     Region...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Flathead/Mission
     Valleys.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Butte/Blackfoot
     Region...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

ID...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for Eastern Lemhi
     County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$