Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 052028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
228 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are starting along the Continental
Divide this afternoon and will move northeast out of the area this
evening. Anaconda to Butte is the only area west of the
Continental Divide that we expect to be affected by these storms.

Otherwise, the region remains under the influence of southwest
flow, with only one significant disturbance on Tuesday. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will affect part of central Idaho and
western Montana most days except Tuesday and Wednesday. On Tuesday
a cold front will cause scattered coverage to numerous storms
across the region, then on Wednesday there won`t be any storms.

In the long term the uncertainty remains high as it usually does.
However, we`re starting to see signs of a big ridge forming
sometime next week. There`s about a 45 percent chance of the
ridge forming early next week causing warm and dry weather. That
may not sound like much, but it`s the strongest signal we`ve seen
of a big ridge yet this summer.


.AVIATION...Afternoon convection will lead to fair weather cumulus
clouds across most of the region with some thunderstorms along the
Continental Divide. Thunderstorms are initiating near the
Continental Divide and will be in the vicinity of terminal KBTM
through about 00Z. Terminal KSMN will have some towering cumulus
in the vicinity, but those are expected to move off to the
northeast before becoming thunderstorms.



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