Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 302310
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
510 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Key Messages:

- Wind chills will drop into the 15 to 25 below zero range
  tonight for parts of northeast NE and western IA.

- Cold early in the week, but a general warming trend expected
  with pleasant conditions possible by the weekend.

Today and Tomorrow:

Surface observations paint a depressingly cold picture across
eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with the high point in the 21z
observations temperature-wise being Shenandoah, Iowa at 16 degrees.
On a normal January 30th in Omaha, Nebraska our high would be 34
degrees while in reality we are currently sitting at 11 degrees (23
below normal). Fortunately tomorrow we begin our climb out of the
ice box as we begin transitioning from the deep troughing over the
western CONUS into a split flow and a northerly section of the jet
stream forms north of the forecast area. Before we do that, one more
night of dangerously cold temperatures are anticipated and a wind
chill advisory has been issued for most of northeast Nebraska and
parts of western Iowa for wind chill values dropping to -20 to -25
degrees. Highs that occurred today are expected to be improved on by
around 10 degrees tomorrow afternoon with much of the area warming
to the low-to-mid 20s as southwesterly winds develop.

Wednesday through Friday:

Wednesday through Friday are expected to feature a relatively steady-
state split level jet stream with any action precipitation-wise
being shuffled to the north or south around the forecast area
with temperatures much closer to normal values. Highs in Omaha
will generally range from 33 to 29 degrees these three days and
varying wind directions from one day to the next as subtle
boundaries pass through and centers of high pressure influence the
wind fields. After coming from a few days of well below freezing,
we`ll take whatever temperature increases we can get.

Saturday and Sunday:

In the outer reaches of the forecast period, a sharp change from
what we`ve been accustomed to the past week or so comes in the form
of highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s as a shortwave passes through
the upper flow and drags up through a warm front from the southwest.
Along with the warm front passing through the area, a cold front
should be pivoting through the northeastern Nebraska and very low-
end precipitation chances. Ensemble and deterministic precipitation
fields have kept the meaningful amounts north into South Dakota and
away from Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Sunday is also expected to
be dry with slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 30s to low
40s. We`ll likely have to wait a little bit longer to see rain
chances return to the region late Monday with the arrival of a
deeper wave coming in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 509 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with north
or northeast winds switching to south tonight at less than 12 kt.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042.

IA...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Mead


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