Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 251815
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
215 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves through the area by early afternoon,
followed by a cold front tonight. High pressure builds late this
week, followed by a cold front Saturday. A cold front will pass
through on Saturday. High pressure builds behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain showers have been heaviest along the south shore of Long
Island and offshore which is also where there has been
occasional embedded thunderstorms. The convection has not
become too organized without much of any gusty winds with this
activity. The convection moves across Eastern Long Island and
Southeast Connecticut mainly before 2PM this afternoon. Other
showers are possible as a cold front approaches later this
afternoon, with coverage isolated to scattered.

No concerns for severe weather at this time due to lack of surface
instability and shear.

Temperatures today will reach the low to mid 80s in the NYC/NJ
metro and the combination of the higher humidity may make it
feel closer to 90. Elsewhere the temperatures will be in the mid
to upper 70s.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the Atlantic
Ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast soundings indicate significant drying aloft in the
afternoon, so any convective development will be isolated at best.
This chance is further reduced with loss of heating in the evening.
The cold front passage tonight should be dry with no precipitation
forecast. Lows will be in the 60s for much of the region. High
pressure builds toward the area on Wednesday.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
Atlantic Ocean beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
With the exception of an upper level disturbance moving across and
possibly sparking an isold tstm well NW of NYC Wed eve, high
pressure will dominate through the end of the week, with a very warm
but dry air mass remaining in place. Daytime high temps should reach
the upper 80s and lower 90s away from south facing shorelines, a
little above composite GFS/ECMWF MOS and consistent with both H8
temps +16C and H5-10 thicknesses around 570 dm. With dewpoints in
the lower 60s, apparent temperatures will run very close to air
temperatures.

A closed low dropping SE into eastern Canada should drive a cold
front through on Sat, with sct showers/tstms. With temps still
running on the very warm side, dewpoints increasing to the mid 60s,
and NW flow aloft, would anticipate some of these to be on the
strong side. After fropa, Sat could still be very warm via downslope
NW flow but dry. A return to near seasonable temps not expected
until Mon, with highs from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A trough of low pressure continues to move east of the city
terminals today. A cold front moves through tonight.

Improving to mostly VFR this afternoon. MVFR/IFR east of the
city as well as KHPN. Mostly VFR then continues into this
evening.

Winds mostly under 10 kt into this evening, shifting NNW behind
the cold front towards midnight.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Tempo or prevailing VFR could occur before
20z.

KLGA TAF Comments: Tempo MVFR possible before 19z.

KEWR TAF Comments: Tempo MVFR possible before 19z.

KTEB TAF Comments: Tempo MVFR possible before 19z.

KHPN TAF Comments: Changes in flight categories may be off by
an hour or two.

KISP TAF Comments: Changes in flight categories may be off by
an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday through Friday...VFR.
.Saturday and Sunday...Mostly VFR. Chance of a tstm with MVFR
or lower conds.

&&

.MARINE...
Below SCA conditions expected through the middle of the week.
With high pressure in control, generally tranquil winds and seas are
expected Wed night through Friday night. A cold front approaches
Saturday, with a slight increase in winds possible ahead of the
front. A few showers/thunderstorms are possible Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional basin rainfall between 1/2 to 1 inch expected today
mainly across Southeast Connecticut and Eastern Long Island with
amounts mainly less than 1/2 inch to the west. Main concern
would continue to be minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fig/PW
NEAR TERM...Fig/JM
SHORT TERM...Fig
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...Fig/PW
HYDROLOGY...Fig/PW
EQUIPMENT...


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