Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 302345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
545 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

A lull in precipitation is expected this evening across the area.
Roads will continue to be slick this evening for areas that
received precipitation earlier in the day, as temperatures will
get down into the lower 20s to upper teens overnight. Isentropic
ascent should ramp back up Tuesday morning across western north
Texas and adjacent southern Oklahoma. Precipitation chances will
increase northward into central Oklahoma. As cloud cover remains
overhead, in addition to northerly winds, have adjusted Tuesday
high temperatures cooler than guidance would suggest. Freezing
rain/sleet is expected for most areas south of I-40. There is some
hint in model guidance in elevated instability across southern
Oklahoma Tuesday morning into the afternoon which could induce
some thunder sleet/freezing rain. Across southern Oklahoma,
freezing rain accumulations can be expected of up to .2 inches.
Elsewhere south of I-40 across western Oklahoma can expect a
glaze of ice. Sleet accumulations could reach up to .25 inches.

A Winter Storm Warning will remain in effect for southern
Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas, and a Winter Weather
Advisory will remain in effect for the remaining counties excluded
the northern 2 rows of Oklahoma counties until Wednesday at noon.



(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Precipitation chances will decrease from north to south through
Tuesday evening. Precipitation chances will once again surge
northward throughout the day Wednesday with the approach of a mid-
level trough and attendant large-scale ascent. Wednesday`s
forecast, however, is very tricky, and will continue to be
monitored very closely. Model guidance has been much warmer than
observations throughout the winter event so far. Continuous cloudy
skies and light winds out of the north will likely foster surface
temperatures to be below freezing Wednesday. Models in these
conditions have been too way too warm (above freezing), and in
turn, would want to force cold rain across much of the area.
Currently, forecast temperatures for Wednesday south of I-40 are
below freezing. That being said, with the amount of deep-layer
moisture across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas,
dangerous amounts of freezing rain are possible. From Wednesday
morning to Thursday morning, these areas could see over .3 inches
of ice, if surface temperatures can get cold enough.

By Thursday morning, temperatures get back above freezing as
precipitation chances push southward. Dry conditions and a warming
trend up to the 60s by early next week are expected as mid-level
ridging builds in from the west.



(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

The first round of wintery precipitation has shifted away from all
TAF sites and MVFR conditions will continue for much of the night
and into tomorrow. A second round of sleet is possible on
beginning Tuesday morning (albeit lighter than today`s event) -
first over western north Texas and then spreading northeastward.
Precipitation onset is estimated to begin for KSPS/KLAW in the
early morning, reach the KCSM/KOKC/KOUN by mid-morning, and then KSWO
and KPNC by mid-morning to early afternoon.


Oklahoma City OK  19  24  19  33 /   0  40   0  20
Hobart OK         16  27  18  35 /  10  30  10  40
Wichita Falls TX  23  26  24  33 /  10  50  20  70
Gage OK            8  27  14  40 /   0  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     15  22  17  35 /   0  30   0   0
Durant OK         24  25  23  32 /  20  80  40  80


OK...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday
     for OKZ014-021-033-034.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for OKZ015>020-

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ028-030-

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for OKZ028-030-

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for OKZ032-041>043-

TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ083>086.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ090.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Tuesday night for

     Winter Storm Warning from midnight Tuesday night to noon CST
     Wednesday for TXZ087>089.



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