Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 200859
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
359 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Well below average temperatures expected next couple of days as
drier and cooler air filters into the region behind departing
cyclone. Wednesday and Thursday could stay well below average
across northern Oklahoma depending on how long clouds/precip
lingers with potential MCS activity. As near-zonal flow increases
Tuesday, upslope flow will increase ahead of retreating warm
front and will likely result in thunderstorm development to the
northwest of Oklahoma. Resulting MCS is expected to track east and
southeast Tuesday night and Wednesday. Location of the mentioned
warm front will be modulated by intensity and location of
convection, which will have a strong influence on where subsequent
storm development could initiate late Wednesday into Thursday.
Models fairly consistent in keeping this boundary over western
into central portions of Oklahoma until Thursday, keeping greatest
chances for rain across northern parts of Oklahoma. High amplitude
s/wv trough progd by all models to progress eastward over the
northern plains, which is expected to help warm front lift well
north of Oklahoma. We will leave the forecast dry thereafter as
heights build rapidly into the weekend. As far as severe weather
potential for the mid-week period, it should remain on the low
side, but given reasonable amounts of deep-shear across northern
Oklahoma Tuesday night and again late Wednesday north of the
mentioned front, at least marginal conditions appear possible.

Models have come into much better agreement (GFS coming more in
line with ECM) on evolution of more typical late summer subtropical
ridge Friday through next weekend. This is expected to yield a
warming trend  and dry pattern into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  83  64  86  67 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         88  63  91  69 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  90  67  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           82  59  86  65 /   0   0   0  40
Ponca City OK     81  61  85  65 /  10   0   0  30
Durant OK         89  67  90  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/11



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