Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 231732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1132 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

The 18Z aviation discussion follows....


As a ridge of surface high pressure drifts east today, northwest
winds will slowly diminish and shift to the southwest. Expect
generally light winds overnight, before shifting to the north late
tonight/early Thursday, and increasing during the day on Thursday
as cooler air again flows into Oklahoma and north Texas. An
upper-level disturbance will cross northern Oklahoma tomorrow, and
this will create mid/upper-level cloudiness and perhaps a few
areas of light snow or rain near, and after, the end of this
forecast period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 523 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019/

12Z TAF discussion.

Pesky back edge of clouds will keep a chance of periodic MVFR
ceilings at OKC/OUN/PNC next 2-3 hours. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions. Weakening northwest winds this morning will become
westerly late this afternoon and then southerly this evening.
There will be an increase in mid clouds overnight across northern
into central Oklahoma.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019/

Overall, occasional frontal passages and low/near-zero
precipitation chances are expected trough early next week. The
synoptic pattern will be characterized by a large-scale trough
with embedded shortwaves across the eastern contiguous United
States. As these shortwave troughs amplify on western periphery of
trough, (relatively brief) surges of cold air will affect the
Southern Plains.

For today, a moderation in temperatures is expected with more
insolation and much lighter winds. Temperatures are expected to
range from the low 40s to near 50 F. These temperatures are around
5 F below average.

A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma early Thursday morning
as a shortwave trough digs into the Midwest. Falling temperatures
are expected behind this cold front as it moves southward during
the daytime. Temperatures are expected to fall into the 30s F
across the northern two-thirds of Oklahoma by late afternoon with
wind chills in the 20s F.

Friday will be cool in the front`s wake with highs mostly in the
40s F. A weak wind shift may affect northern Oklahoma on Saturday;
however, it now appears any notable cold air mass will remain to
the northeast of the Southern Plains. As a matter of fact,
temperatures might be a few degrees warmer on Saturday when
compared to Friday.

By Sunday, even warmer temperatures are expected as a
downslope/adiabatically warmed air mass advects into the Southern
Plains. Temperatures may warm into the 50s and 60s F as 850 mb
temperatures increase to 7-8 C. Sunday is currently expected to
the be the warmest day through the forecast period.

Another cold front is forecast to pass by on Monday as a
shortwave trough digs into the Southern Plains. The air mass
behind this cold front appears to be the coldest over the next 7
days. Depending on the timing of the cold front, falling
temperatures will be possible during the day Monday with breezy
northerly winds. Some light snow/flurries may occur behind the
front (no impacts expected).

In the front`s wake, much cold temperatures are expected on
Tuesday. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the 30s
F. Temperatures were trended colder and may need to be lowered in
subsequent forecasts as both the 23/00Z ECMWF and GFS have 850
temperatures to at least -15 C across northern Oklahoma. Some
moderation in temperatures is expected on Wednesday of next week.



Oklahoma City OK  44  30  41  22 /   0   0  10   0
Hobart OK         48  28  43  22 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  48  31  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           49  25  38  21 /   0   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     41  27  35  18 /   0   0  10   0
Durant OK         44  30  50  24 /   0   0   0   0




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