Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 230808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
208 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night.
Some moisture filtering over an upper level ridge may bring some
isolated afternoon showers to the central mountains and Upper
Snake Highlands near the Montana and Wyoming borders. It will be
mainly dry and warm today however in most areas. Wednesday may see
some more isoalted showers and thunderstorms in the eastern
mountains again near the Wyoming border, but again most areas will
be dry. Thursday the focus shifts to the southern mountains with
some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with the chance
for widespread rain showers Thursday night as some models
overspread the entire region Thursday night. Temperatures are
expected to be quite mild with well above normal high and low
temperatures expected through the entire short term period.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Tuesday. All of the models are
honing in on a quicker passage of the front on Friday, and a pretty
breezy pattern heading into the weekend. It appears that we should
be unstable enough even for early day thunder on Friday. Expect at
least gusty winds with storms as well. The GFS and ECMWF took a
swing toward dry except for a few showers along the Montana Divide
and Utah border, the GFS especially. The Blend of Models has similar
pattern although a little more robust on coverage by Sunday.
Considering it was a bigger shift (especially for the GFS), we
leaned pretty heavily on the Blend for the forecast...which also
included at least a slight chance of showers across the eastern
highlands and rest of the central mountains. That trend continues
into early next week. The models and NBM handle Monday the same as
the weekend pattern/forecast, with the GFS and ECMWF producing more
showers Tuesday. We should see a 10-15 degree drop between Friday
and Monday. Also depending on timing, we could see some light
mountain snow showers by Sunday Monday and beyond. The cooldown may
help at least slow down snowmelt across eastern Idaho.  Keyes


.AVIATION...VFR weather is expected even with increasing clouds.
There COULD a few showers or storms developing farther north,
potentially impacting IDA or DIJ. That is a big IF because this is
situation where this could be nothing more than the models over-
developing virga. For now, we have even left VCSH or VCTS out.
Gusty winds at 10-20kts are possible mainly for BYI and PIH. Keyes

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated river levels will likely continue through the
week coincident with above normal temperatures. As a result, a Flood
Warning continues for the Portneuf River at Pocatello, a Flood
Advisory continues for the Big Wood River at Hailey, and numerous
gauges are showing bankful conditions including the Blackfoot River
near Henry, Antelope Creek near Darlington, Snake River downstream
of Palisades Res near Heise, at Lorenzo, near Menan, and at
Blackfoot all due to elevated releases out of Palisades Reservoir.


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