Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 230107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
207 PM SST Fri Feb 22 2019


Latest model solutions show the active trough axis remaining
north of the area through the weekend. However, the southern edge
of the trough continues to bring numerous to occasional showers
within the area through the weekend. Furthermore, models are also
showing a low pressure system forming within the trough axis to
the north-northwest of the Samoan Islands on Saturday. This low
pressure is expected to move over the islands by at least
Saturday night through new week. Because it`s a fast moving
system over favorable tropical development conditions, models are
projecting this system to intensify as it migrates southward
producing more occasional showers with breezy to gusty northerlies
and extremely high surfs across the area. The high pressure to
the south will keep the trough stationary in the area through the
new week. The aformentioned low pressure will continue to move
south as it pulls in most of the moisture from the trough trailing
across the islands with embedded showers and thunderstorms.

Therefore, expect occasional showers with isolated thunderstorms
tonight through the short term period. Light and variable winds
will prevail through Saturday before increasing to strong and near
gale northerlies Saturday night through the new week. Additionally,
the potential for flash flooding and an advisory for high winds
is imminent.


WWIII model runs show an upward trend in seas through the at least
the new week. As the low pressure system moves closer and over the
islands, seas of 7 to 9 ft will increase to 9 to 12 ft Saturday
night and rapidly increase to 12 to 15 ft Sunday. These swells
will further increase to warning levels Sunday night through
Monday. PacIOOS Wave buoy data also shows sea heights in the
advisory levels. Advisories for small crafts and high surfs
remains in effect through the new week. Will continue to monitor
and make adjustments as more data becomes available.


A High Surf Advisory remains in effect.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.
Special Weather Statement



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