Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 260045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
145 PM SST Thu Apr 25 2019

Latest visible satellite imagery show deep convections just
southeast of the Manu`a Islands. Model outputs show a broad area
of high pressure further south and slowly migrating eastward.
Another large high pressure to the southwest will follow suit as
it migrates east and builds. The RAOB from this afternoon
(00Z/26) shows a moderately unstable profile. In addition, latest
MetConnect Pacific SWFDDP model show an area of heavy rain with a
moderate confidence of moving over the islands tonight and through
the short term. However, the latest GFS model runs also show the
trough to the south oscillating north and south Saturday morning
as a high pressure system to the southeast moves further east
slowly. Hence, showers are forecast to become numerous to
occasional showers for tonight until Saturday morning.

Current model data forecast show the aforementioned trough moving
more south as the above-mentioned high pressure system moves
further east in the latter part of the forecast period.
Easterlies will pick up to moderate strength by at least Saturday
then become variable again in the new week. Expect periods of
showers embedded within the easterly flow once winds pick up.
Winds will remain variable tonight through the weekend with
numerous to occasional showers and a chance of thunderstorms.

Wave Watch III model solutions show a downward trend in combined
seas tonight through the rest of the forecast period. PacIOOs
Aunu`u buoy data show seas below advisory levels and forecasted to
be remain there through the new week. Therefore, no significant
swell is expected any time soon.





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