Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 300054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
154 PM SST Sun Jan 29 2023

Although fair weather conditions has been observed throughout the
weekend, instability still lingers nearby. Open cumuli clouds
associated with an equatorial high pressure to the north-
northeast will continue to bring brief passing showers with light
to moderate northeast winds and higher gusts over the territory,
tonight through Monday. Model data projects the trough to the
south-southwest will move closer to the islands Monday night.
This will increase the potential for numerous showers, heavy at
times with gusty gentle to moderate north-northeast winds. Model
solutions also projects a low pressure system connected to the end
of the aformentioned trough to migrate east-southeast and pull
moisture from the north for this time period.

By midweek, model data shows another low pressure materializing
over the Fiji Islands and migrate southeast. This will keep winds
from the east-northeast with embedded showers for the remainder
of the week.

Therefore, expect changes to weather conditions throughout the
week. Weather conditions will be monitored for alerts when
warranted. In the meantime, there is a low chance of a tropical
system to develop in the area of responsibility for the next 7


Wave heights collected from the PacIOOs buoy near Aunu`u remains
around 6 to 8 feet with long periods peaking at 14 seconds. The
latest model data projects a downward trend to below advisory
thresholds for high surfs, starting Monday and remaining
throughout the forecast period. Thus, the high surf advisory is
cancelled. However, model projections of a long period north-
northwest swell is expected midweek. Seas are expected to be
around 4 to 6 feet for this time frame. The long period swells
will likely increase surfs and the potential for strong rip
currents near the shoreline. Additionally, with the trough
lingering in the area throughout the week, thunderstorms and gusty
winds may enhance conditions out in the open waters.


A High Surf Advisory is cancelled
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect



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