Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 191112
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
612 AM EST Mon Nov 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front slowly pushes through the area later today and
tonight. Remaining cool through mid week, but modest warming and
dry for the end of the week. Strong system next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM Monday...

Frontal boundary will linger near the Ohio River for much of the day
today, with -ra developing mainly north of the front, particularly
later this morning and early afternoon as a weak wave traverses the
region. Frontal boundary, and precipitation will gradually
overspread the area later this evening, as surface low slides off to
the northeast, and upper shortwave trough moves into the Ohio Valley
region. Colder air will gradually take hold overnight and Tuesday,
with light rain and snow forming, mainly across the higher terrain.
Much of the lowlands will see a gradual transition to drizzle
towards morning, as moisture depth is lost. Do have some light
accumulations coded across the northern mountains, mainly above 3000
feet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Trough axis aloft passes Tuesday, with the flow becoming more
zonal into Wednesday and Wednesday night, but it will take some
time before the lower level thermal trough and moisture exits
the northeastern mountains of the CWA. As a result, there are
minimal snow accumulations now in the forecast for the very
highest elevations into Tuesday night. Kept with the wording of
drizzle on the back end as the lowlands dry out early Tuesday.

Dry reinforcing cold front evident in the lower level
temperature gradient and moisture increase Wednesday, so
looking at yet another below normal temperature day. Boundary
will stall and linger, so variable cloud cover can be expected
over the area, contributing to the below normal temperatures
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Brief pattern change as ridging aloft on the front end of the
extended allows for another modest warm up for the end of the
week, but that only gets the temperatures back towards normal.
Weather is dry with the southern stream now coming into focus as
a Pacific system traverses the southern tier. Expecting
amplification of an upper level trough over the lower
Mississippi valley, becoming a closed low over the Ohio Valley
into Saturday. Likely to be largely a wet system for the
upcoming weekend, but have snow in the mountains for the onset
right now. Quite possible that this evolves into more of a mixed
precip/ice event, but many details need to unfold first before
making that leap. Not going to mention in the HWO at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1220 AM Monday...


Mainly VFR conditions with light surface winds through at least
18Z, when conditions will gradually deteriorate to widespread
MVFR in -RA, with widespread IFR developing after 23-02Z. Light
surface winds during the period, although occasional gusts in
the teens to 20 kt range are possible across the higher terrain
mainly after 18Z. Some improvement to MVFR possible towards the
end of the taf period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated
restrictions may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 11/19/18
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR in areas of light rain and snow showers, and post rain
stratus Tuesday. Patchy IFR fog possible Wednesday and Thursday
mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL



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