Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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388
FXUS61 KRLX 151417
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1017 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control today. Mainly dry cold front crosses
Monday into Tuesday. High pressure and upper ridge dominate
latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1017 AM Sunday...

Based on current trends and latest guidance, have made some
tweaks to temperatures and dewpoints for today. Otherwise, see
no other changes.

As of 652 AM Sunday
Previous forecast remains on track. No changes needed attm.

As of 215 AM Sunday...

Weather charts indicate a large area of high pressure over the
local region. Satellite imagery confirms very dry airmass behind
yesterdays cold front over the area. Thus, expect any river
valley fog to dissipate quickly by 8 AM.

Abundant sunshine will allow afternoon temperatures to reach the
90 degrees mainly lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Sunday...

Models, mainly the GFS and NAM, show a weak front sinking into
the forecast area Monday into Tuesday with a potential for
isolated showers. The ECMWF is less robust with this feature and
keeps things dry. Opted to include some low end slight chance
POPs across the northeastern forecast area with this on Monday
afternoon. Also added some slight chance POPs across the
central and southern mountains Tuesday afternoon as the front
continues through. Temperatures will be on the warm side through
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 AM Sunday...

High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the latter
half of the week dry, with temperatures continuing to run above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 650 AM Sunday...

Widespread VFR conditions expected through at least 07Z tonight.
High pressure in control of weather conditions through the
period. Wind flow will remain calm or light and variable. Light
north northeast flow this morning, turning light and variable
to light south this afternoon.

IFR/LIFR in dense river valley fog could materialize once again
during the predawn hours Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
Early morning dense river valley fog possible Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...JSH/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ



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