Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 310030
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
730 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbance following the front brings mixed wintry
precipitation overnight into Tuesday. A warmer wave possible
Thursday. Dry, but frigid, to start off the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Much colder air behind exiting cold front filters in tonight
* Rain/Snow mix precipitation includes freezing rain overnight
* Mixed Wintry precipitation likely by dawn Tuesday
* Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to cover northeast
  KY and additional counties in WV and OH through 1 PM Tuesday.
* Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for higher
  elevations of our northeast mountains through 1 PM Tuesday.


Forecast challenge continues in terms of precipitation type
arriving from the west overnight tonight, and spreading east
across the rest of the area into Tuesday. Much colder air behind
the exiting cold front will bring sub-freezing temperatures
near the surface, while a warm nose develops, but erodes
overnight.

There could be a brief period of freezing rain mixed with snow and
rain during the onset of precipitation, spreading from northwest to
southeast tonight. Depending on how fast the air column cools,
the faster precipitation transition into all snow, and more
snow accumulations can be expected. The area with most
uncertainty will be over portions of the Middle Ohio Valley and
northern WV early Tuesday morning during the morning commute,
where a mixed bag of precipitation is suggested by models, or an
area of locally heavy snow may develop. May need at least a
Special Weather Statement to cover this hazard over portions of
the Middle Ohio Valley into WV.

Most of the area will receive snow, with higher accumulations
west of the OH River, perhaps 1 to 2 inches during the early
Tuesday morning commute. An SPS or an advisory may be required.

As precipitation spreads southeast, chances for freezing rain
increases across the southern coalfields of WV, central and northern
mountains, and extreme southwest VA. WPC probability for freezing
rain over the southeast WV and northeast KY is over 70%, greater
than the probability of snow. Confidence runs high over these areas,
so a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the southern
counties from 1 AM to 1 PM Tuesday, and across the northeast
mountains through 11 PM Tuesday night. Expanded the advisory to
cover our counties in northeast KY, Lawrence Co in OH and
Cabell, Clay and Putnam in WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 PM Monday...

A moisture-laden frontal boundary continues to sink southward
at the start of the short term period as high pressure pivots
into the Ohio Valley. Wednesday morning will begin with shower
potential along the mountains diminishing in coverage as the
high establishes more of an influence over the forecast area.
H85 temperatures on the upwards of -5 to -9F continues to usher
into the area on Wednesday amid the Canadian high, maintaining
highs for midweek only a few degrees above freezing.

A southern stream system looms down in the Mississippi Valley
on Thursday. Areas north of the I-64 corridor should remain
fairly dry through this portion of the forecast period, while
portions of the southern coalfields remain within the northern
precip shield of the low pressure system. A brief warming trend
ensues, bring Thursday highs closer to their climatological norm
for this time of year. However, colder temperatures trapped
across the south during the time of looming southern showers may
promote a slight chance for freezing rain during the morning
commute before changing over to all rain by the early afternoon.
Light ice accumulations may transpire during this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 PM Monday...

Broad upper troughing crosses through New England for the end
of the work week, limiting shower chances even further heading
into the weekend with the help of surface high pressure. A surge
of colder temperatures will promote frigid temperatures for
Saturday morning, with many waking up to lows in the mid-teens
and as low as the single digits along the higher terrain.

Zonal flow aloft will inhibit much in the way of disturbances
approaching from the south through the remainder of the forecast
period. However, a few upslope snow showers may sneak into the
area for late in the weekend, primarily for the West Virginia
foothills and mountains. Otherwise, a dry pattern is slated for
the start of next week. Temperatures moderate closer to normal
for this time of year for Sunday onward through the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 PM Monday...

Post-frontal precipitation will gradually develop overnight,
resulting in lowering CIG/VSBY restrictions overnight into
Tuesday, as rain showers transition to a wintry mix. CIGs are
progged to lower into IFR/LIFR overnight, then gradually lift
into MVFR late Tuesday afternoon across the north, while
remaining IFR/LIFR for the central/south. VSBY restrictions
will vary depending on precipitation type. MVFR/IFR are possible
within rain showers, while IFR/LIFR are possible within snow
showers. Precipitation will taper from north to south during the
day on Tuesday, lasting longest in/near the higher terrain.

Light N/NW surface flow persists throughout this TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY restrictions may vary from the
forecast depending on precipitation type.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 TUE
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible Tuesday night in the mountains with low
ceilings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-034-515>521-525.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for WVZ007>011-
     016>020-028>032-039-040.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM EST Tuesday for
     WVZ522-523-526.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     OHZ087.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for OHZ075-076-
     083>086.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MEK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...GW


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