Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 171905
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
305 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Barry affect through tonight. Deeper moisture
moves out Thursday. Dangerous afternoon heat expected Friday and
Saturday. A break in the heat comes early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...

Scattered bands of showers with isolated thunderstorms will
continue to develop or move across the area through tonight.
This activity is associated with the remnants of Barry. Abundant
moisture as seen in PWATs reaching 2.25 inches and surface
dewpoints in the lower 70s. However, little dynamic forcing can
be expected with this event. Heavy downpours could produce
isolated minor water problems through tonight.

Pcpn intensity is expected to diminish toward midnight. Lower
atmosphere could decouple tonight depending on clearing skies.
This could produce areas of dense fog during the predawn hours
Thursday over areas that receive rain. Otherwise, cloud cover
could prevent fog formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Wednesday...

Big story continues be the heat and humidity slated for late
week and the weekend, courtesy of upper level ridge axis
shifting into the region. Guidance continues to fluctuate a
a couple of degrees for highs both Friday and Saturday but
remain steadfast on dewpoints. Given that MOS guidance has
generally been too cool the past few weeks for highs, elected to
accept the higher values from blend of models. As such, the
combination of heat and humidity Friday and Saturday warranted
issuance of excessive heat watch for most of the lower
elevations earlier this morning. This area matches well with
WPC probability grids for reaching 105. Though, confidence of
reaching 105 is a bit lower across the northern Lowlands in the
vicinity of the I-79 corridor. Regardless, I anticipate advisory
level readings to be reached both days in those areas.

Chances for convection each day remain very small and confined
to the mountains where elevated heat sources may contribute to
isolated late day activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...

Heat wave breaks down this period, as a cold front approaches on
Sunday, and then crosses on Monday.

Ridge reorganizes off the East Coast Sunday as upper level
trof moves into the upper OH Valley. Models are hinting out
moisture return resulting from these features which will
increase shower/storm chances Sunday, perhaps as early as the
morning. Depending on how much coverage there is Sunday
afternoon, we may be looking at head advisory criteria, though
warning levels are not anticipated.

It will take until late Monday to get the front through as the
trof axis crosses. This means a good chance of showers/storms
continue into Monday, though diurnally maximized.

High pressure builds into the region Tuesday and Wednesday for
lower humidity and temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Wednesday...

Radar images indicate convection developing across southeast OH
and along the eastern mountains. Showers could produce brief
periods of IFR/LIFR conditions along their path, to mainly
affect PKB, EKN and BKW. Afternoon heating will aid in
thunderstorm development with heavy rain possible through at
least 03Z.

Have coded mainly MVFR conditions with VCTS under SHRA through
this evening at most places as it is difficult pinpoint time and
location of such storms.

Tonight, guidance suggests low stratus developing overnight with
MVFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities over areas that receive
rain this afternoon. Coded IFR conditions during the predawn
hours Thursday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVF/IFR low stratus could develop earlier
overnight than anticipated.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in low clouds and fog during the overnight and
early morning hours Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-029>031.
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ


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