Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 221855
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
255 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure drifts east tonight. Cold front approaches from
the northwest Tuesday, then remains near or just south of the
area through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

Sunny weather prevailing, but the push to 70F is slow. Will keep
the lowland max temps around that mark with a few hours of
heating left today.

High pressure drifts eastward tonight, and the forecast remains
dry ahead of a cold front pushing in from the west. Mainly clear
conditions prevail prior to the arrival of the front, as
moisture will only be pooling in close proximity to the feature
as dewpoints climb into the low to mid 50s. A line of showers
and thunderstorms will be associated with this feature, in which
a small sliver of the middle Ohio Valley has just been upgraded
to a marginal risk for severe based on the increases in the mid
and upper level flow. As to be expected in the increased
southerly flow ahead of the system, temperatures will jump
around 10 degrees compared to the max temps today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Monday...

Surface cold front eases southward across the forecast area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Will keep highest PoPs and thunder
mention in the north and west due to more favorable timing
there, with the front making it to our southern counties late in
the night or early Wednesday morning.

Models diverge a bit as we move into the day on Wednesday and
into Wednesday night and forecaster confidence wanes.
Uncertainty revolves around how active the front will be and
where it`s located but will keep a chance of showers in place,
mainly across our southern and western counties. Will also have
temperatures several degrees lower than Tuesday with most
locations in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 PM Monday...

Decent model agreement on a closed low opening up and swinging
across the region Thursday into Thursday night. This gives the
front a push across the region Thursday into Thursday night with
likely PoPs for most areas, then diminishing rain chances on
Friday as high pressure builds in. Very little airmass change
behind the system with daily highs remaining in the 60s to low
70s.

Brief period with no rain chances Friday night but models bring
in the next system quickly with zonal flow over the weekend.
Surface front looks weak in the modeling and flow aloft remains
zonal so expect mainly isolated to scattered showers with the
front remaining in the area. No major temperature change with
most locations remaining in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

VFR. No restrictions ahead of a weak cold front that will
approach near the end of the TAF period for the far western
terminals, but direct impacts lie beyond the scope of this
issuance. Winds will be on the increase and will veer to the
southwest, gusting 15-20kts after 16Z Tuesday. Prior to that
time, expect light and variable to calm this evening and
overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR at times in thunderstorms mid to late week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...26


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