Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 230025
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
725 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming trend tonight. Approaching cold front brings all rain
on Wednesday, transitioning to all snow by early Thursday. Cold
fronts bring colder air next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 725 PM Tuesday...

Made a few adjustments to wind gust potential for the mountains Wednesday
based on latest model trends. Forecast soundings for tonight
suggest a stout inversion, helping to contain strong winds from
reaching the surface across the Lowlands overnight.

As of 230 PM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure continues in control through early
tonight. A cold front will shift the high pressure to the east,
to arrive along the OH River overnight. Deep low level winds
from south to southwest will provide warm air advection through
Wednesday.

Have rain showers reaching the OH River during the predawn hours
Wednesday, a considerable delay on onset from previous model
runs. Expect rain to spread east transitioning into all snow
after midnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.

The main area of concern is the eastern slopes where
temperatures could remain below freezing through Wednesday
morning. If the rain reaches these areas before they warm up,
freezing rain could be possible.

Went with the CONShort for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

The forecast period starts off with a cold front associated with the
low pressure system to the north sweeping across the area bringing
rain at first. Precipitable water is expected to be over an
inch throughout the area which is anomalously high for this time
of year. For this reason and with the help of a surface low
developing south ahead riding up along the cold front, which
will slow down the progression slightly, the area will likely
see at least an inch of rain widespread. Localized higher
amounts near the southern and mountainous areas along the VA
border are possible. Before a transition to all snow there may
brief spots of sleet and freezing rain, however this will be so
short live that it will not be impactful. Am expecting around
an inch of total accumulation of snow with some higher amounts
in the mountains. With most of the dendritic growth zones
drying out Thursday morning accumulations slow down on the back
side of this system and not expecting much more accumulations
into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

As the light snow showers linger in the mountains and tapers
off Friday evening a series of short waves will be sweeping
through the area over the weekend into the middle of the week.
This will bring intermittent bursts of snow flurries. Cold
bursts of air with every wave will allow temperature profile to
become colder and colder making snow ratios quite large so am
expecting a lot of drier snow to fall, so accumulations are
expected to be confined to mainly the higher elevations where an
upslope flow will be takeover.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 725 PM Tuesday...

Widespread VFR conditions continue into the overnight period,
with the addition of high cirrus streaming into the region.
Forecast soundings overnight maintain a decent inversion for
terminals located across the Lowlands, keeping surface gusts at
at bay. Meanwhile, above the inversion features winds near
45-55 knots, posing a concern for potential wind shear at some
terminals beginning late tonight and through Wednesday
afternoon. Introduced potential wind shear issues to PKB first
then spreading into HTS, CRW, and BKW as the day wears on. Will
make sure to note this concern to the oncoming shift so they
can continue to monitor terminals upstream and help determine
whether wind shear is actually occurring.

Ceilings lower throughout the day Wednesday in response to the
approaching cold front, traversing towards southeast Ohio by early
evening. Rain will spread across the Ohio Valley ahead of the
front in the morning before being pushed eastward and impacting
all terminals by the afternoon. Ceilings and visibilities are
not expected to be impacted initially by precipitation, but will
transition into more of a concern as the front makes its way
into Central Appalachia Wednesday evening. Behind the front,
colder air will change rain over to snow, dropping visibilities
down into IFR/LIFR levels as it does so. Models analyze this
change to a wintry precipitation after the conclusion of the
Zulu day and beyond this current TAF period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of LLWS tonight could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible in snow overnight Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL/JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MEK
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MEK



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