Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221900
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
200 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

What a nice day it has been across the Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas. Some cloud cover associated with a cold front across
eastern Kansas has kept parts of western Missouri and far
southeastern Kansas cloudy, but this has not kept temperatures
from climbing into the upper 60s to upper 70s for the most part.

The cold front will begin to make its way east this evening with
showers and isolated storms moving into the Ozarks region late
this evening into the overnight hours.

The rain looks to be scattered in nature and the limited
instability and lack of shear will keep thunderstorms to isolated
chances.

The front will move through the Ozarks overnight and begin to
stall across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri Which will
provide the focus for showers and scattered storms to continue
across most of the region through the day on Tuesday. Overall rain
amounts should be between a quarter of an inch across central
Missouri to around and inch across southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

The stalled frontal boundary will then linger across the region
Tuesday night through late Wednesday night. This will continue to
focus rainfall across the region as shortwave energy from the
southwestern CONUS slides northeast along the southwesterly upper
level flow.

A deep upper level trough will begin to kick out of the four
corners region and across the southern plains Late Wednesday
night and through the day Thursday. A surface low will track
across central Arkansas with showers and isolated storms wrapping
around the northern edge of the low across the Ozarks.

High pressure will then filter into the region Thursday night
into Friday giving the area a respite from what could be a
generally wet week.

Another cold front will move across the Plains and through the
Ozarks Saturday night into Sunday morning as a deep low moves
across the northern Plains and the Great Lakes region. This looks
to be a quick moving system and Sunday may turn out rather nice.


Models differ on a system for the start of next week and will
watch this as it gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR ceilings have spread slowly
northeastward into KJLN and KSGF aerodromes through the late
morning and early afternoon as moisture increases ahead of a cold
front over southeast Kansas. Not seeing precipitation development
ahead of the front yet as better upper level support remains to
our southwest.

Through this evening and overnight, expect widespread MVFR
ceilings with intermittent IFR Tuesday morning as showers and a
few thunderstorms develop with increasing moisture/lift near and
behind the cold front. Expect the front to be near BBG by the end
of the forecast period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Terry


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