Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171718

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1118 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018


Issued at 659 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

After seeing a steep inversion on the morning sounding, we`re
going to bump up temperatures over the southern half of the
forecast area by several degrees during the afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

South winds ahead of a developing low pressure system over the
southern High Plains have helped hold temperatures in the lower
to mid 40s across the region early this morning.

A front extending northeast from the low pressure center into
southeast Nebraska will move southward across the forecast area
during the morning and afternoon, bringing increasing clouds and
north winds. Highs today will vary greatly due to the front, with
a range from the upper 40s over central Missouri to the lower and
mid 60s near the AR border.

Drizzle and light rain are expected to develop behind the front
this evening and continue into the overnight hours and early
Sunday morning. It still looks like temperatures will be cold
enough for some freezing drizzle over mainly the northern half of
the forecast area, roughly along and north of a Salem to Bolivar
to Neosho line.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Clouds and drizzle/light rain with some wintry mix of freezing
drizzle mainly north of I-44 should linger through Sunday morning
before temperatures warm above freezing. Accumulations still look
to be very light. North winds and persistent cloud cover will help
hold temperatures in the 30s through the day.

The latest NAM and GFS are starting to show come cloud ice,
which may help mix a little snow during the morning. We will need
to watch forecast trends to see if this persist. For now, think
cloud ice probability is too low to include snow at this time.

Precipitation will gradually end from west to east Sunday
evening. May see a little mixing of freezing drizzle over the
eastern portion of the forecast area as the precip is exiting the

Drier conditions and a warming trend will begin on Tuesday as
height rises occur ahead of a shortwave ridge developing ahead of
an upper level trough moving onto the southern California coast.
The GFS is showing some precipitation developing ahead of this
feature as it tracks eastward into the Red River Valley on
Wednesday and Thursday. However the precip is expected to remain
well south of our area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

VFR conditions expected at the taf sites for the afternoon and
evening hours. A cold front will move through this afternoon and
evening which will switch the winds to the northwest. IFR ceilings
will move into the area overnight with a chance of rain or drizzle
at the sites by early Sunday morning. Temperatures at the surface
should stay above freezing however Joplin will get close to
freezing by Sunday morning. Confidence is too low to include FZDZ
at JLN at this time.




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