Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 302332
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
532 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Key Messages:

1. Wintry mix along and south of the I-44 corridor into this
evening. Heavy sleet accumulations of a quarter to three quarters
of an inch along and south of an Anderson to Ozark to Winona line.
Localized amounts up to an inch.

2. Additional potential (20-40%) for a light wintry mix on Tuesday
and again Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The highest
potential is across southern Missouri.

3. Turning warmer Friday and Saturday.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1223 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Current Conditions...A large swath of wintry precipitation
continues to track northeast along and south of the Interstate 44
corridor this afternoon. As of 3 PM, the back edge of the
precipitation was starting to clear the Indian Nation Turnpike
from Tulsa to McAlester.

Along and north of I-44, precipitation has mainly fallen as snow,
however sleet has mixed in at times. In contrast, sleet has been
the primary precipitation type south of I-44 with heavy sleet
falling at times. We have even had some lightning activity in the
Mount Vernon area.

North of the ongoing precipitation, cloudy conditions have
persisted with perhaps a few snow flurries at times. Temperatures
across the entire area are steady in the upper teens to around
twenty degrees.

Expectations into this Evening: The large swath of wintry
precipitation will continue to push east-northeast across the area
along a corridor of 800 mb frontogenesis. The main precipitation
type south of I-44 will remain sleet for the next few hours, but
will transition to snow before ending from west to east late this
afternoon and this evening. Precipitation type along and just
north of I-44 will primarily be snow with occasional sleet mixed
in. A rumble of thunder will remain possible (20% chance) across
southern Missouri for the next few hours.

Precipitation will end along the I-49 corridor between 21 and 23Z
and will clear the Highway 65 corridor by 02Z. Wintry
precipitation will end along the Highway 63 corridor by 04Z.

Total sleet amounts south of I-44 will range from 0.25" to 0.75".
Localized amounts up to one inch will occur. These same areas will
also see a quick dusting to a half inch of snow as precipitation
changes over before ending. Along and just north of I-44,
snowfall amounts up to an inch will occur with just some minor
sleet accumulations.

The going Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory are in
good shape for now, however it is highly likely that we will be
able to trim these headlines from west to east this evening as
precipitation ends.

Overnight Period...Once organized precipitation ends, short term
models show good agreement that a slightly drier low level air
mass will begin to advect in from the north. Inspection of omega
profiles does not reveal any notable lift. Thus, the prospects for
freezing drizzle look very low (less than 10%). Confidence is high
that overnight low temperatures will range from the lower teens
across central Missouri to the upper teens near the Arkansas
border.

Potential Wintry Mix Tuesday...Short term models and ensembles
show a lot of variance regarding lift and moisture profiles on
Tuesday. This makes confidence lower than normal for a 24-hour
forecast.

We are confident that the overall synoptic pattern will promote
increasing middle and upper level lift from the late morning into
the afternoon. Short wave energy will be diving southeast across
the Great Lakes and Corn Belt with the Missouri Ozarks also being
positioned beneath the left-entrance region of an upper level jet
streak.

The big question is then how dry the low levels become between
later this evening and tomorrow morning. We do feel that the low
levels will be dry enough to prevent freezing drizzle potential on
Tuesday. However, that increasing lift in the upper half of the
troposphere will promote some precipitation potential (20-40%)
from late Tuesday morning into the afternoon. The "best" chances
would tend to be near the Arkansas border.

Inspection of NBM statistical data and forecast soundings reveals
that light snow would be the primary precipitation type. However,
there are still 10% to 30% probabilities for both light freezing
rain and sleet. Any precipitation amounts would be light, but
could still be impactful.

Highs on Tuesday will be held down due to thick clouds and cold
air advection in the low levels. We went between the NBM 25th and
50th percentiles for highs which puts most areas in the middle
20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1223 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

By Wednesday, surface high pressure will begin to slide to the
east of the region. This will allow the upper level trough to
shift out of the Southern Plains late Wednesday into Thursday.
Ensemble guidance remains consistent with the area being on the
northern extent of precipitation potential. Precipitation chances
remain low (20-30%) along and south of the Highway 60 corridor for
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Ahead of this feature, a
dry and chilly day is expected on Wednesday afternoon. Though
it`s worth noting, temperatures are forecast to be above freezing
in the middle 30s, which is 10 to 15 degrees above early week
temperatures. This will aid in the melting of any existing ice
and snow.

Assessing the low end precipitation chances late Wednesday into
Thursday morning, the general trend is south among the ensemble
guidance. Thermal profiles at the surface will vary depending on
the onset of any precipitation, resulting in either light
rain/freezing rain at the surface. At this time, confidence is low
on any additional precipitation with this system. Temperatures
begin to trend up by Thursday afternoon with highs in the middle
to upper 40s.

By late week into the weekend, high pressure builds over the
central CONUS. This is consistent with ensemble guidance that
supports a consistent warming trend into the weekend. Expect daily
highs in the middle/upper 40s to lower 50s this weekend and some
welcoming sunshine. The warmer temperatures will be accompanied by
gusty south winds. The warmest temperatures are expected across
the southwestern portion of the forecast area. Additionally, no
precipitation chances are on the horizon through the weekend.

By late in the forecast period, guidance diverges, resulting in lower
confidence on the details of the forecast. In general, the pattern
by early to mid February does lean towards being more active. This
will need to be monitored in additional forecasts over the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Wintry precipitation will end and shift east of the regions
terminals early this evening. However, Low end VFR to MVFR
ceilings will remain for most of the overnight hours, especially
for the KBBG area and along the Arkansas state line.

Another winter system will bring the potential for spotty wintry
precipitation, mainly in the form of snow, to the region Tuesday
morning into the early afternoon. Impacts with this will be
limited with MVFR to IFR visibilities and ceilings as the system
moves through the area.

The region should see another wintry system Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as light freezing rain moves across southern
Missouri, before a drier end of week and weekend.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ070-
     071-081-083-090-091-093-094.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MOZ082-092-
     095>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Hatch


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