Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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FXUS66 KSGX 250435

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
930 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Hot conditions will continue in the deserts through Thursday, with
gradual cooling west of the mountains. There is a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms again in the mountains and high deserts
Tuesday afternoon. Dry conditions will return from the middle of the
week through the weekend, with marine layer low clouds and fog
increasing near the coast and portions of the valleys. Some cooling
will occur late in the week and next weekend in the deserts.



Skies were mostly clear this evening, with a few mid-level clouds.
Stratus has formed south of around Rosarito Beach, Baja California,
but the HRRR/HREF show only patchy low clouds along the San Diego
County coast, with even few/no low clouds in Orange County. Late
afternoon NKX sounding showed precipitable water has fallen slightly
to 1.52 inches, though that is still quite high for June. Enough
moisture remains in place Tuesday for a few mountain
showers/thunderstorms to form in most favorable locations--over
mountain peaks and in a few high desert locations of SBD County that
get a convergence boundary between the afternoon west/southwest flow
and south/southeast flow. Otherwise, hot weather will continue over
the deserts with some cooling west of the mountains as the high over
our area weakens and a trough gradually develops over the West
Coast. As moisture aloft gradually decreases, we will have a
decrease in the overnight temperatures and an increase in the marine
layer stratus, with widespread stratus likely by Wednesday night.
That trough will become more prevalent along the West Coast by
Friday, with cooler weather spreading into the deserts then and more
widespread coastal stratus over the weekend.

No changes will be made to the excessive heat warning, in effect
through Thursday in the desert.


250330Z...Coast/Valleys...There is a 20-35 percent chance of low
clouds with bases 1000 ft MSL or lower developing along the San
Diego County coast 09Z-15Z Tuesday. CIG impacts are not expected at
TAF sites through Tuesday. Otherwise, FEW-SCT clouds at/above 15,000
ft MSL and unrestricted VIS through Tuesday.

Mountains/Deserts...There will be a 10-15 percent chance of TSRA
over the mountains and portions of the high desert again Tue
afternoon, with CB bases near 10,000 ft MSL and tops to 30,000 ft
MSL. Gusty outflow winds and reduced VIS VCTY TSRA. Otherwise, FEW-
SCT clouds at/above 10,000 ft MSL and unrestricted VIS through Tue


No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.


Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Apple and
     Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.