Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 302225
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
225 PM PST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather is expected through mid-week, then
precipitation chances return for the end of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper level trough has pushed into SoCal with ridging building
into BC. This has brought an increased pressure gradient to the
region but it will continue to decrease. Right now the strongest
winds are over the west side of the Sacramento Valley and over
portions of the mountains. Winds will continue to diminish
throughout the afternoon but they do look to stay up some tonight,
generally 5-10 mph in the Valley and 15-35 mph over the
mountains. This is somewhat good news as dewpoints are very low,
single digits to upper 20s. We are still in for a cold night but
not nearly as cold as it could be with no wind. Overnight lows are
expected to range from the mid 20s to lower 30s in the Valley,
mid 20s to mid 30s in the foothills, and below zero to upper 20s
in the mountains. Areas that see less wind could be locally cooler
than the forecast.

Upper level ridge will continue to build over the West with the
APEX pushing over NorCal Wednesday. This will bring a gradual
warming trend into the end of the week. Overnight lows will remain
cold through Wednesday night with daytime highs slowly pushing
back to near average by Thursday.

Upper level ridge will begin to push east Thursday as a short-wave
trough approaches. The system has a little bit higher moisture on
the IVT (integrated water vapor transport) but forcing will be
marginal as the front and trough weaken with their eastward
progression. Precipitation chances will spread south Thursday
night with mainly light QPF (< 0.50").

-CJM

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...
Short wave trough will be pushing through NorCal early Friday.
This will leave lingering showers in the forecast mainly over the
higher elevation into the afternoon. Ridging builds in for
Saturday with another trough and cold front moving in for Sunday
into Monday. Still seeing some differences in ensembles mainly
with timing with this system but forcing does look better with it
and that should result in higher QPF totals than the Thursday
night/Friday system. It still doesn`t look like a very wet system
with mountain travel impacts being the main concern.

-CJM

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR over interior NorCal next 24 hours. Northerly surface wind
gusts up to 15-25 knots in the Valley through 03-06Z Tuesday.
Local surface wind gusts up to 40-50 knots over higher terrain
through 12z Tuesday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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