Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 160603
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler today, but more hot weather returns early next week,
peaking on Tuesday. Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will be possible mainly over the higher elevations of the Sierra
Nevada through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening Update: Short wave moving through the region triggered
isolated storms over the Coastal Range and Lassen NP areas this
afternoon. Activity has now dissipated and the anvil cirrus will be
clearing overnite.

Onshore flow still strong (25g33KT at KSUU) and the Stratus
Calculator for a 2200 ft ML has "calculated" stratus likely in the
Srn Sac Vly Sun morning with bases <= 1500 ft. HREF forecasts a 70%
chance of low ceilings in the SAC County area around 7 am, and the
stratus should dissipate after 9 or 10 am.

This evening`s MAV/MET guidance for SAC is likely biased by "CLIMO"
for Mon/Tue as the synoptic pattern and 850 mbs temps suggest much
warmer temps. Strong anticyclonic flow from the strong Pac High
pressure cell is conducive for triple digit heat in the Vly and the
SREF temp plumes mean shows about 99 for Mon and 101 for Tue at SAC
and just below 100 for RDD while the MAV/MET for Rdd in the low 100s
is much more reasonable.   JHM

.Previous Discussion...
A weak wave is moving into the area is spreading some high clouds
into the interior. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the
northern coastal range and northern Sierra Nevada through the
evening hours. The best chances look to be over the northern
mountain portions of the forecast area.

The Delta breeze continues and should strengthen slightly
tonight. The marine layer is around 2200 ft deep and together with
the Delta breeze we may end up seeing some low clouds advect into
the Sacramento area from the Bay Area late tonight and early
Sunday. The Delta breeze will not be as strong on Sunday as today,
sunny skies and warmer temperatures are expected for Father`s
day. Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will once again
be possible over the higher mountain elevations.

On Monday a ridge will start to move into the region and start a
warming trend to bring back hot temperatures to the interior.
Northerly winds Monday and Tuesday over the northern half of the
Sacramento valley may elevate fire concerns for a couple of days
for that area. Currently the peak of the heat looks to occur on
Tuesday but the northern part of the valley looks like heat may be
lingering a bit longer before cooler temperatures arrive. On
Tuesday valley temperatures will range from 98 to 108 degrees with
the hottest temperatures over the north end of the valley. Heat
related concerns look likely for central and north end of the
valley on Tuesday so may end up needing a heat advisory for those
areas.

&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

Little change to forecast package this afternoon as ensemble
guidance continues to show high pressure over the eastern Pacific
while a broad trough sinks into the intermountain west. Overall,
the pattern looks to remain dry with our high temperatures
gradually decreasing a few degrees each day. Winds at this time
don`t seem to be too substantial; however, with the drier weather
in place and poor RH recoveries in some areas, there is the
potential for some fire weather concerns.
&&

.AVIATION...

Minimal change to the forecast for the next 24 hours as VFR
conditions are expected across most of the region. There will be a
chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
coastal range and Sierra crest this afternoon. Elsewhere, expect
to see southerly winds increasing, especially within the Delta
where gusts could peak up to 30-35kt.

During the overnight hours winds will decrease a bit, but the
concerns turns to how far the stratus penetrates inland. Hi- res
guidance has it filtering through the Delta and making it into the
Sacramento metro. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings will be
possible.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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