Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 160016
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
816 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.UPDATE...
It has been a relatively active day across west central and
southwest Florida. With the surface high ridge to the north, the
wind flow has been predominately out of the east which allowed for
east coast storms to develop earlier in the day and progress
westward. As these storms marched west, some showers and storms
developed along the west coast sea breeze around 20Z with the
highest coverage over Lee County. As the west sea breeze and outflow
boundaries collided with the east coast sea breeze, storm coverage
increased with some moderate to strong storms forming along the
coastal counties. Wind gusts were in the 20-30 knot range with
rainfall amounts between 0.5 - 1.0 inch region wide with some higher
amounts approaching 1.5 - 2.5 inches in heavier storms south of
Tampa Bay. Conditions will quiet down over the next couple of hours
with a tranquil night expected. Made some minor adjustments with
POPs coverage based on latest radar and HRRR guidance. No other
changes needed to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Most of the terminals have seen TSRA move through the area this
afternoon with some MVFR/IFR conditions reported for VIS/CIG
restrictions. Radar is still showing TSRA along the coast so will
hold VCTS at all terminals and TEMPO TSRA with gusty winds and lower
CIGS at all terminals except LAL through 03Z. Outside of outflow
boundaries and thunderstorms, winds will be light at 6 knots or less
through the overnight hours. Tomorrow will be very similiar to today
with VCTS and TSRA possible after 18Z. No other aviation impacts
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build and slide east off the Mid-
Atlantic coast, providing east to southeast winds for the next
couple of days before winds turn onshore with the sea breeze.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the coast during the
afternoons, with development across the offshore waters overnight
along the land breeze. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher
waves will be possible near thunderstorms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  88  75  87 /  50  60  30  60
FMY  74  87  74  87 /  60  50  30  60
GIF  74  90  74  88 /  20  60  30  70
SRQ  74  88  74  87 /  60  50  30  60
BKV  72  91  72  89 /  50  50  30  60
SPG  77  88  76  87 /  50  50  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/Wynn
UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis



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