Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 142323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
623 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Breezy conditions with warming temperatures continuing into Sunday
will be the main story for the short term forecast with only slight
chances for showers and storms late this evening into overnight.

A broad trough is stretched from the Pacific northwest into the New
England states.  The surface is exhibiting southerly flow regime
with a lee trough in place.  The focus for the late evening period
tonight will be a very weak low amplitude shortwave working through
the northern and portions of the central Plains into the overnight
period.  Can`t rule out a storm or two could flirt with severe
limits if they do get going as far south as north central Kansas.
This probability seems low at this time.  But if a storm can reach
the area, organization appears like it would be minimal with weak
shear overall this far south of the main wave.  The main threats
would continue to be hail and wind with any storm.

Ridging continue to build into the region tomorrow with higher
heights and mixing allowing for above normal highs into the low to
mid 90s.  Heat index values become uncomfortable once again for the
foreseeable future into the upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

A dry period should hold into Wednesday before overall low chances
of precip begin to re-enter the forecast.  Highs will likely remain
above normal as ridging is reinforced by a persistent western trough
deepening over the Pacific coast.

Several differences in the long range forecast remain with the GFS
continuing to be the deeper and more intense solution.  Timing is
also an issue more so with some of the latest runs with the GFS
tending to be more progressive with eastward progression of systems.
 As a result, the confidence in the longer range forecast remains
low.  But it does look like several chances for showers and storms
may linger through late week into next weekend with surface and
boundaries wavering back and forth through the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Main concern for this period will be low level wind shear
developing with the increasing low level jet after 04Z. LLWS
around 1200 ft should last through 14Z when the low level jet
weakens. Convection is expected to remain to the north of the
terminals attm so have not added any mention at this time. VFR
conditions are e




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