Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 302306
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
506 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Forecast Key Points:

- Cold through Tuesday with a warming trend into the weekend with
dry conditions in place.

Forecast Discussion:

Currently across the CONUS a split flow pattern is in place with
quasi-zonal to southwest flow situated from the Mid Atlantic to the
Desert Southwest region with an upper low spinning into SoCal.
Subtropical moisture is streaming into northern Mexico and over the
southern Plains region into the southeastern states where a winter
storm system is bringing freezing rain to portions of the southern
CONUS. The northern stream energy remains into western Canada and
down through the northern tier of the CONUS into the Great Lakes
region. A trough over the northern Plains into the northern Rockies
will tranlate across the area and bring one more day of cold air to
the region before the higher amplitude ridge over the eastern
Pacific begins to build into the western CONUS and eventually
spreads east into the latter part of the week into the up coming
weekend. A broad region cold Canadian air is still expanding into
the area through this afternoon before sliding east into the day
tomorrow.

By Wednesday a noticeable warm up will begin to take shape as a
southern branch of the jetstream digs into the southwest and slowly
lifts into the southern Plains by Thursday and Friday time frame.
Meanwhile the northern branch of the Westerlies brings clipper
system across the northern tier. This should lead to little in the
way of significant poleward advection north into the forecast area.
Thus, expecting that a quiet and dry pattern likely stays in place.
Slight warming each day with highs into the 50s by the weekend
should result as the southern Plains low pressure system finally
moves through and ridging eventually translates east and builds into
the central Plains with rising heights helping to support warmer
overall temperatures. Still not looking for many opportunities that
bring any meaningful precipitation to the area over the next 5-7
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 506 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with light northerly
wind.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Jones


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