Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 221803
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
103 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Early this morning an upper level trough was lifting northeast
across eastern NE and northeast KS. Thunderstorms that developed
across west central and north central KS last evening have
diminished. There is one cluster of thunderstorms southwest and
south of TOP that have maintained themselves northwest of a surface
outflow boundary, due to isentropic lift from a southerly low-level
jet about 1500 feet above the surface crossing perpendicular to the
outflow boundary. The stronger updrafts in this cluster of storms
may produce small hail and wind gusts of 30 MPH as they move along
and south of I-70 and along and north of I-35. A few elevated
thunderstorms will be possible farther north across portions of
northeast KS through the early morning hours. A surface cold front
was moving southeast into the northwest counties of the CWA early
this morning.

Today, the low amplitude H5 trough located across eastern NE and
northeast KS this morning will move east into the mid MS river
Valley Tonight. An amplified upper level trough across southern NV
and southern CA will dig southeast into southern AZ and northwest
Mexico late Tonight. The surface cold front will push southeast
across the CWA through the morning hours and should move southeast
of the CWA around 18Z. Low-level CAA behind the front will keep
highs cooler Today with mid 60s across north central KS and lower to
mid 70s across east central KS. Skies will gradually become partly
cloudy from west to east during the afternoon hours.

Tonight, the cold front will become stationary across northern OK
and may begin to work back northward as a warm front, towards the KS
border by sunrise. Weak isentropic lift north of the boundary will
cause scattered showers to develop across southeast KS late Tonight.
These showers will remain south of the CWA through the night.
Cloud cover will increase through the night across the southern
and eastern half of the CWA. Overnight lows will range from the
mid 40s across the northern counties to around 50 degrees across
the southeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Rain chances on Tuesday are looking less likely across northeastern
Kansas. Models are in good agreement with the placement of an upper
level closed low located over southern AZ/northern Mexico by early
Tuesday. Moisture and broad scale ascent look to stream out
ahead of the system and are likely to interact with the surface
cold front that should be located near the I-44 corridor in southern
MO/central OK by midday Tuesday. Based on the placement of that
front, am currently thinking that the better chances for rain will
remain south of the area, with a slight chance as far north as
east- central KS. The upper low will take a southern track across
the CONUS and keep rain and storms chances south, while our
conditions will be largely controlled by surface high pressure
through the rest of the workweek.

Return flow will set up over the area early in the weekend as a
surface cyclone and associated trough move into the central Plains.
A cold front associated with that low could move through northeast
KS during the day Saturday which will bring rain chances back into
our forecast. Will have to see how quickly moisture can return to
the area given the ridging pattern we will have in place most of
the week.

Otherwise, with the exception of Tuesday being more on the cool side
given cloud cover and rain south, temperatures through the week look
to stay pretty mild with highs mainly in the 70s and lows generally
in the upper 40s and low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

MVFR CIGS linger longer than originally anticipated. However,
better mixing is taking place, so the expectation is that MVFR
lift to VFR for the afternoon. Northwest winds persist through
much of the period before gradually veering to the north during
the day tomorrow. Have kept some indication that MVFR stratus
could thicken back up during the overnight into early morning
period. Confidence is presently low with the front moving
southeast of the area and overall drier air moving in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Teefey
AVIATION...Drake



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